What's a Player Worth?

With the Yankees recent splurge on free agents and trades, there are a lot of people talking about who's overpaid, who's underpaid, responsible spending, irresponsible spending, and the like. For that reason, I'd like to take a look at the Yankees two acquisitions on the offensive side of things: Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira.

To do this, I'll be turning their projected runs above average using Marcels projections for hitters and their CHONE Defensive Projections.

My method will be the same as found on my friend Mike's blog Fire Jim Leyland. For an example of how these calculations work, go to this post. An example:

Lets run through an example. We'll use Curtis Granderson. His RAA in my table comes out at +15.7. His CHONE defensive projection has him at +13 runs. That makes him now at +28.7 runs above average. He gets another 2.5 run boost for being a Centerfielder, which puts his RAA at 31.2. Divide that by 10.5 and you get 2.97 Wins Above Average. Add in another 2, and he becomes 4.97 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. That equates out to being $24.85 million. His 2009 salary is currently just $3.5 million, a difference of $21.35 million -- quite the bargain.

10.5 is roughly the amount of runs that equal one win and the two is used because a replacement player is two runs worse than an average player. To get the dollar amount, you multiply by five (millions of dollars), which is the approximate value of a win The positional adjustments Mike talks about are as follows:

Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second Base/Third Base/Centerfield: +2.5 runs
Left Field/Right Field: -7.5 runs
First Base: -7.5 runs
DH: -17.5 runs

Let's run through the numbers for Mr. Swisher first. On the Marcels spread sheet, we can find that he will be worth 5.8 runs over average. If we want to project Swisher as a corner outfielder, we find his defensive projection on the CHONE site and find that in the corners, Swisher is projected to be a +5 defender. Thus, our equation becomes:

5.8 (runs over average)-7.5 (postiion adjustment) = -1.7+5 (projected defense) = 3.3/10.5 +2 = 2.31 Wins over Replacement. So, as a corner outfielder, Nick Swisher projects to be worth 2.31 Wins over Replacement Player. Multiply that by five to get the dollar amount Swisher's 2008 performance projects to be and you get: $11.55 million dollars. A quick trip over to Cot's MLB Contracts and we find that Nick Swisher will make $5.3 million in 2009. So if Nick Swisher plays to his projection as a corner outfielder, the Yankees are saving $6.25 million on him.

If you want to make Swisher the CF, switch the positional adjustment (+2.5) and the defensive projection (-2) and he comes out at 2.50 wins over replacement, but only because CFs are harder to replace than corner OFs. Still, his dollar value there would be $12.5 mil, a money saver for the Yankees.

Projecting Swisher at first is more or less a moot point because of Tex, but for shits and giggles, he'd be 1.36 WAR, or $6.8 million. Still a "money saver," but less valuable than if he were in the OF.

Now, we come to the big boy. Mark Teixeira. The Yankees just gave him an eight year, 180 million dollar contract, with an AAV of $22.5 million. That's going to be hard for Tex to match, from a standpoint like this. Let's see how it works out. Via the Marcels spreadsheet, Teixeira will be 28.2 runs over average this year. So:

28.2 - 12.5 = 15.7 + 6 (projected runs at 1B) = 21.7/10.5 + 2 = 4.07 WAR x 5 = 20.35. So, Tex's value projects to be $20.35 million this year. According to Cots, Mark will make a flat $20 million this year. So, the Yankees will, in fact, be paying Tex .35 million dollars less than he projects to be worth. It's a small number, but the Yankees are "saving" with Tex.

Lineup Run Scoring Projections

Using this system, I punched in a few different lineup possibilities for the Yankees to see how many runs they could average per game.

To get the appropriate OBP and SLG numbers, I used the Marcels projections for each player, which can be found on fangraphs.com.

First, let's see how the Yankees would fare if they went to bat with the team they currently have, which would probably mean a lineup of:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That lineup would score an average of 5.455 runs per game. That would be a big improvement over last year's mark of 4.870 runs per game; the total runs scored would be about 884.

But of course, these are the New York Yankees. There's very little chance that no moves will be made and the Yankees will take the field with this lineup in April. My current Free Agent Crush is Adam Dunn, so let's see how a lineup of the following would do:

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn LF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady RF
9. Cano 2B

That team gets an even bigger boost of runs, scoring 5.638 per, which would mean about 913 runs on the season. That's a lot of runs. That total would a) probably out score whatever defensive problems the Yankees may have with that lineup and b) be bolstered by a very good pitching staff.

There have been rumblings of a trade for Mike Cameron in the last few days. What would a lineup with Cameron, and no other acquisitions, look like? Probably this:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cameron CF

The above lineup would score 5.511 runs per game, 892 over the course of the season, which isn't as much as a Dunn inclusive lineup, but is better than a Gardner inclusive lineup.

In the words of Michael Keaton's version of Bruce Wayne in the first "Batman" film: "You wanna get nuts?! Let's get nuts!" and say that the Yankees sign Mark Teixeira.

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady LF
9. Cano 2B

This configuration would score 5.689 runs per game, a total of 921. Again, that could out do any defensive problems with Damon in center and would compliment what could be a dominant pitching staff.

"Let's start the insanity," as Jerry Seinfeld might say, and assume the Yankees sign Manny Ramirez. This would likely mean trading Xavier Nady or Hideki Matsui. While moving Nady might be easier, I think the front office would do everything it could to move Matsui instead, as he is older and more expensive. In fact, he could end up platooning with Nady, but either way, we're taking him out of this lineup because the program doesn't allow for platoons.

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Ramirez DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This would score 5.658 runs per game or 916 runs. However, this lineup could be tweaked. It is definitely possible to fit Nady AND Matsui into the lineup, while forcing Gardner out to a bench role. Let's see how that would play out. This would mean Damon in CF and Manny in left.

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Ramirez LF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady RF
9. Cano 2B

This permutation would average 5.713 runs per game, which would mean 925 runs in 162 games, which is the best result of any I've calculated so far. 925 runs is a lot. A whole lot.

So it would seem that from an offensive standpoint, signing Ramirez and benching Gardner while keeping Matsui and Nady in would yield the most runs for the Bronx Bombers in 2009. Of course, we'll just have to sit back and watch what Cash and his crew do in the next month or so.

CC and AJ

Well, I guess I've got a lot to talk about. Sorry for the prolonged absence, finals were no fun. But, I'm pretty sure I passed them all so, on to baseball.

Let me just say I'm absolutely thrilled with the two signings the Yankees have made. The years for both guys may be a little too long, but the fact that CC has an opt out clause actually makes it a decent contract. If CC does leave in three years, it'll be good for the Yankees because it will most likely mean that CC has pitched well enough to think he can get money somewhere else, which means the Yankees will likely have been a successful team. In the end, this could be a short term contract favorable for both teams. Also, Felix Hernandez will be a free agent at the end of the three years (he'll only be 26!) so if CC does leave, there could be a suitable replacement. Also at the end of those three years, the Yankees could have many young arms ready to take over.

By then, I think Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will have established themselves as front line starters and Andrew Brackman and Dellin (sp?) Betances will probably be ready to be called up to the Majors an contribute. So if CC does leave, the 2012 Yankee rotation could look like this:

Chamberlain
Hughes
Wang
Burnett
Betances/Brackman

If all goes well, that could be a very formidable rotation.

The AJ Burnett signing may be a little too long, but I can't argue too much with it. He's a power arm with a ton of upside to him. If he gets hurt, which I don't think he will (both Bill James and Marcels projections on fangraphs.com have him going 185+ innings), the Yankees have people who could fill in--Hughes, Aceves, Coke, Kennedy...

But what AJ gives the Yankees is the ability to miss bats. The Yankees have lacked power arms the past few years and it has hurt them a bit. With the additions of Sabathia and Burnett along with Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, the Yankees now have three starters who can consistently miss bats.

There will be more to come this week, including lineup run-scoring projections with Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, and Manny Ramirez. Thanks for reading.

-Matt

Adam Dunn

River Ave. Blues recently ran a piece about Adam Dunn. It was a great article and got me thinking, again, of what the Yankees would look like with Adam Dunn.

Obviously, I'd like to get Teixeira but with the Angels going hard after him, I think it's time for the Yankees to take a long hard look at Adam Dunn.

You can pencil him in for 40 homers and 100 walks a year. That type of production is absolutely great for the Yankees, a patient, power hitting team. Dunn goes deep into counts and takes balls deep as well. As an added bonus, he's a lefty, and we all know what power hitting lefties can do in Yankee Stadium.

Of course, slotting Dunn into the lineup is much easier said than done. How could the Yankees fit him in when there's already a bunch of OF/DH types? Dunn has a reputation for having a pretty bad glove so my gut reaction is to put him at DH. However, in digging a little deeper, I found that by PMR, Dunn was 0.68 runs above average...so essentially average. He had similar numbers by Baseball Prospectus' FRAR and FRAA systems. So the first lineup scenario could be Adam Dunn in left field, Johnny Damon in center field, and Xavier Nady in right field. The probable batting order with that defensive alignment would be:

1. Damon L CF
2. Jeter R SS
3. Dunn L LF
4. Rodriguez R 3B
5. Posada S C
6. Swisher S 1B
7. Matsui L DH
8. Nady R RF
9. Cano L 2B

That's a pretty kickass lineup if you ask me. There'd be three guys with great eyes in front of Rodriguez, a good left/right balance, and a relatively strong bottom of the order to set the table for the top.

But of course, the nay-sayers will say "nay" to having Adam Dunn play defense.If he were to be a DH, someone would have to get left out of the lineup each day. What could be done then? Well, this may be an unorthodox solution, but I would suggest that Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady essentially platoon at different positions versus different pitchers:

VS RHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

VS LHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This is no slight against Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, I just think they could both be better utilized playing in a platoon. This would help save Matsui's aging knees and would allow Nady to do the most damage. Matsui at first might be different, but he said he'd be willing to try and play first if it would help the team. While he's not the worst defensive OF out there, moving down on the defensive spectrum would probably let us see a jump in Matsui's defensive production.

As for Nady, he holds a career .854 OPS versus left handers and only a .770 OPS vs righties. Matsui OPS's .803 vs. lefties, which is a good mark and in the end, I'd be comfortable w/him playing every day, but to save his health, and utilize his career .870 OPS versus right handers, I'd let him play first against righties and rest against lefties.

Of course, there is always the possibility that if Dunn is signed, one of Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, or Hideki Matsui could be traded. The one most likely to be moved is probably Nady. He's coming off a career year, is the youngest, and has the smallest contract. If he were to be moved, Dunn could play right field, with Damon in left and Matsui DHing, with Brett Gardner in center:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn RF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That wouldn't be a bad lineup at all. The corner OF defense might be a little shaky, but the Yankees could probably live with that, due to increased offense.

So, out of all these lineups I've thrown out there, which one would be the best?
Probably the first one. Johnny Damon in CF might not look too great but he can get the job done. Trust me, the Yankees have made out with bad CF defense before. That lineup also includes both Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, while eliminating a potentially weak link offensively in Brett Gardner. That lineup arrangement could best make up for a lack of outfield defense.

Do I think the Yankees should go hard for Adam Dunn right away? Despite the fact that he'll probably come much cheaper, no. Mark Teixeira should still be the #1 goal for the Yankees offensively. However, the great deal for Nick Swisher and the Angels hot pursuit of Tex makes the prospect of him in Pinstripes somewhat bleak. If the Yankees miss out on Mark Teixeira, they should go full steam ahead for Adam Dunn.

The Pros and Cons of Letting Andy Walk

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Andy Pettitte is considering following Joe Torre and Don Mattingly to Los Angeles to pitch for the Dodgers if a deal with the Yankees cannot be worked out.

So, what are the pros and cons of letting Andy walk to Los Angeles?

PROS

The first pro would be a first round draft pick:

Update (7:15pm): Before anyone asks, Pettitte is a Type-A free agent, so if he did head to SoCal the Yanks would get the Dodgers first round pick (#17 overall, the second best pick they could possibly get) and a sandwich rounder.

That comes from River Ave. Blues. While a draft pick would likely not have an impact on the team for a few years, a draft pick that high is a luxury the Yankees usually don't have. Take into consideration that the Yankees will most likely get picks from Bobby Abreu and Ivan Rodriguez, not to mention compensation picks for not signing Gerritt Cole and Scott Bittle. Of course, the Yankees could also give away draft picks if they sign CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Ben Sheets, or Derek Lowe, but getting a first rounder and a sandwich pick for Pettitte would not be bad at all.

The next pro is the fact that the Yankees just may not need Andy. As harsh as that may sound, if the Yankees sign CC Sabathia and one of Ben Sheets (yes please), AJ Burnett (I wouldn't mind it one bit), or Derek Lowe (no thanks), Andy Pettitte is probably not necessary. Let's say that happens, the rotation would probably shake out as:

CC Sabathia
Chien-Ming Wang
Ben Sheets/AJ Burnett/Derek Lowe
Phil Hughes
Joba Chamberlain/other guys to keep his innings down (Aceves, Coke? Kennedy, etc)

Pettitte would not be necessary in that rotation. It would be more than fine without him.

The last pro is the fact that Pettitte is probably in decline. His second half last year was, well, bad. Very bad. Is that a sign of things to come? It could be, and all emotion tied to Andy Pettitte (he signed a business card at my mom's old store for me once and he and I share the same birthday), I really think Andy's best days--and even average days at that--are over.

Andy Pettitte could very well hurt the Yankees next year.

CONS

Of course, there's a tails for every heads....The cons of letting Andy Pettitte go are:

1. You know what you're getting out of Andy. It may not be great anymore, but you know he'll probably give you 180-200 of just about league average (or slightly better or worse) pitching. There have only been four seasons in which Andy has pitched less than 200 innings. The way the Yankees rotation could shape up--with youngsters Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain and their "restrictions"--they'll need someone who can eat innings. Pettitte is perfect for that.

2. A "worst-case-scenario" could occur in which all the free-agent dominoes fall away from the Yankees. In that case, the Yankees would need Pettitte. But of course, Andy could shock everyone and jump the gun and sign with the Dodgers. If that happens, fine, the Yankees could look elsewhere. But, what if the other guys choose other options than the Bronx, too? The Yankees rotation could look like this:
Chien-Ming Wang
Phil Hughes
Joba Chamberlain
??
??

Those question marks could be anyone. Phil Coke, Alfredo Aceves, Ian Kennedy, Kei Igawa....That is not good, no matter what the offense may do. Impossible as it may seem, the offense would probably have to score at least 900 runs to keep that pitching staff afloat.

So, what do to with Mr. Pettitte? I don't really have an answer, and I don't think Brian Cashman and the rest of the front office will until the first few free agent signings occur. What CC Sabathia decides will determine where the Yankees go in terms of pitchers and hitters, and I think Andy Pettitte is not in top priority for the Yankees, which I see as something like this:
1. Sabathia
2. Tex
3. Burnett/Sheets/Lowe
4. Centerfield
5. Andy Pettitte

What if...

The Yankees don't get anyone they want in terms of pitching via free agency? What if CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Ben Sheets all sign somewhere else that isn't the Bronx? What do the Yankees do then?

AVOID JAKE

I think the knee-jerk reaction of everyone will be that they should trade for Jake Peavy. This may sound reasonable considering Peavy's elite status and his relatively reasonable contract. However, there are a few things that I don't like about this (aside from Peavy's no trade clause):

1. He could very well be traded by that time.
2. I don't want to have to give up Phil Hughes and more (read: Austin Jackson) to get him. I know the Padres have said a deal could get done without Hughes, but that's only because the market for Peavy is almost non-existent at this point. If the Yankees were in panic mode, I'm sure the Padres would ask for Hughes in return.
3. If the Yankees didn't trade for the superior Johan Santana last year, why trade for Peavy this year?

Bottom line, I hope the Yankees would stay away from Jake Peavy.

BEEF UP THE LINEUP

The next step would be to bolster the offense, which would make sense and I think should be done regardless of acquiring one of the aforementioned free agent pitchers.

I'm still very much in favor of adding Mark Teixiera, which could allow for some roster flexibility; that move could allow the Yankees to trade either Xavier Nady or Hideki Matsui.

If the former is moved, then Hideki Matsui could stay at DH and Nick Swisher could slide into right, with Tex playing first. I believe this scenario could be plausible because Nady probably has more upside than Matsui right now. He's younger and is coming off a year in which he posted career highs in every offensive category. He slowed down a little bit with the Yankees, but I think he could still be a semi-valuable trade commodity. Maybe I'm just dreaming, but I think Nady and perhaps a B-level prospect or two could fetch Mike Cameron from the Brewers to be a one year stop-gap in center field. That could require some great work via Cashman, though, like in the Swisher deal.

If the latter, Matsui, is moved, I think a few things could happen.

a) Bobby Abreu could be brought back for a 1-2 year deal and would DH to keep his harmful defense on the bench.
b) Adam Dunn could be brought in to DH. His defense isn't as awful as people like to think it is, but I'd still prefer Nady out there.
c) Nady could move back to left and Swisher could play right, with Johnny Damon DH-ing.
d) Bring in Manny Ramirez to DH, Nady would stay in right, and Swisher would be the CF.

Of all these options, C is probably the most likely to happen if Matsui is traded. Option B is what I would want most, though. Inserting a 100 walk/40 HR guy (lefty, by the way) into the Yankees' offense would be a great shot in the arm. The market on Mr. Dunn also seems to be relatively quiet and I think the Yankees could ink him to a very reasonable deal.

I'd like option A, but as much as I love Big Bobby, I feel like he's in a decline. If that were to happen, it would have to be a short term deal, with no more than two guaranteed years.

Option D would be nice, too, since Manny is one of the best right-handed hitters ever. However, I don't think it's very likely. As good as Manny may be, and as much as I'd love to see him in pinstripes, I don't think the Yankees would give him the length in a contract he wanted.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ROTATION?

Here, my friends, is the crux of the problem. If all of these guys fall through, who will be the pitchers for the Yankees come opening day? The prospect of this is made harder to swallow, given Mike Mussina's retirement (more on him at a later date). While I don't think he would've touched what he did in 2008, he'd probably still be serviceable in the rotation.

If those guys aren't going to be in Yankee unis come spring, then Andy Pettitte will surely be.

I think the innings restriction on Joba will still be in effect regardless of free agent moves, but I think w/o those guys, the Yankees will toss Phil Hughes back into the Major League fire. Chien Ming Wang will be around, too, so that's four guys. The Yankees could use Alfredo Aceves as a starter as well, which I would like, along with Phil Coke getting a spot start every so often and probably Ian Kennedy being tried out again (for probably the last time). So what would a "nightmare" rotation for the Yankees look like? Probably something like this:

Wang
Pettitte
Hughes
Joba
Aceves/Coke/Kennedy/lots of guys.

Of course, there's always the possibility of signing another free-agent pitcher who isn't among the "Big Four." Who are some of those possibilities?

Oliver Perez is a possibility. He's young and has shown incredible flashes of brilliance (one of which was on my birthday in 2007. I was there, great game by Ollie) but has also shown more flashes of mediocrity. The Yankees would probably stay away from someone as wild and inconsistent and Ollie.

Brad Penny is another one the Yankees could go for. He's a good pitcher who the market has been essentially silent on. He's 31 like Burnett but also carries the "injury" tag like AJ. He's a long shot that could work out, but I think he would be avoided.

The Yankees could take a flier on Mark Prior but that is also unlikely.

It doesn't seem like there are any FA pitchers out there the Yankees would sign if they missed out on the "Big Four." If that happens, I see the Yankees devoting their money to offense and attempting to slug their way to a playoff berth.

A (Tenative) Lineup for 2009

Hey, everybody. It's been a while since I posted something, so here goes.

The Replacement Level Yankee Weblog recently ran a post about what the Yankees would look like if the season started today. This means the only move made would be Nick Swisher's acquisition. I don't think that this will be the only move the Yankees make, but if it were, here is how I would arrange the lineup if I were G.I. Joe.

1. Johnny Damon, LF--I guess this one's a no-brainer. Damon's been the leadoff hitter for years now and has done fine, no need to rock the boat. However, Derek Jeter would be a fine leadoff hitter as well, IMO.

2. Derek Jeter, SS--Just like Damon, this is another no brainer. Jeter's always been the two hitter so no real reason to move him. Hopefully, though, he has a bit of a rebound year, especially in terms of power. He could also bat leadoff and Damon could bat second. Either order of the two would be fine.

3. Nick Swisher, 1B--Swisher, like Bobby Abreu but better, has a great batting eye and some pop as well. With him in the three hole, that'd be three guys in a row with good batting eyes to get on base for A-Rod. Swisher has a great combination of pop and patience that a three hitter needs.

4. Alex Rodgriguez, 3B--Does this really need an explanation?

5. Jorge Posada, C--Posada's bat was probably the biggest offensive loss for the Yankees in 2008. Despite his crazy-good 2007, I think we all undervalued how much Posada added to the offense and his presence should help the Yankees offense. I like him for the five hole to bring in A-Rod and whatever he leaves on the bases. Hideki Matsui or Robinson Cano could also be candidates for the five spot. I have no real argument against Matsui, I just prefer Posada there. As for Cano, I think his patience isn't developed enough to bat this high in the order. He makes good contact (had a great LD% this year) and has some pop, but I still want his not-so-high OBP lower in the order.

6. Hideki Matsui, DH--He's a good fit for the six spot. Decent average, decent OBP, decent power. If There's a right handed pitcher, it's two lefties back to back. If it's a left handed pitcher, there's still a RH/LH balance between the five/six spots.

7. Xavier Nady, RF--I really do think last year's hot start--the first half, and his first week with the Yankees--was an incredible fluke. I don't think he's gonna suck this year, but he definitely won't be great. The seven spot seems right for him, plus, it keeps a left/right balance that I like to have. Cano could also bat here if Posada and Matsui are flipped, with Nady taking the eight spot.

8. Robinson Cano, 2B--I think this spot, or the seven spot, fits Cano best until he gets some patience. He was a victim of bad luck last year, but his lack of patience still puts him in a lower spot in the order.

9. Brett Gardner, CF--While this has the potential to put three left handers in a row, there's really no where else to bat Gardner. He showed that he was semi-overmatched at the ML level to begin with--despite a great showing during his second cup of coffee--but still showed a decent eye. A good OBP here at the bottom of the order (I see anywhere from .340-.360 for Gardner) could put some runners on base for the top of the order.

So, in review:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

Of course, this can, and probably will, change. But, for now, just bear with me, k?

Nick Swisher!

Well the Yankees made their first big move of the offseason (unless we want to count Marte's deal as "big," but more on that later) in trading Wilson Betemit and Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez for Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.

I, for one, am very excited for this move. The prospects of getting Swisher had been floating around for the last few weeks, but now it has come to fruition.

Now, I understand Swisher only hit .219 last year, but he had a .333 on base percentage. While standing alone a .333 OBP is bad, considering it was over 100 points higher than his batting average, it's pretty good. Swisher also led the league in pitches per plate appearance and since 2006, he is ninth in walks behind some great names, such as Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, and David Ortiz among others.

So, in Swisher, the Yankees get a guy who can play a few different positions who can also work the count and get on base, which is exactly what the Yankees need.

My only concern is what this does for the Yankees and the other Tex. This eliminates a lot of leverage Scott Boras and his client may've had, but it could also eliminate their desire to sign with the Yankees.

I'd obviously love to get Tex, but getting Swisher is a cheaper alternative. He gets on base at a great rate and definitely has some pop, with over 20 homers each full season he's had in the majors, and a .451 slugging percentage for his career.

More importantly, I think this move could be geared toward the future. Both aging outfielders Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui will come off the books next year, as will Xavier Nady. Swisher could be set up as a key piece in the outfield in 2010 and after along with (hopefully) Austin Jackson, and someone else in left field. I don't see Xavier Nady being with the team after his contract is up.

Who could that other guy be? Perhaps Matt Holliday, who will essentially have an American League try out this year and the Yankees will get to think long and hard about signing him (he'll probably be more expensive than Tex if he has a good year).

I am very excited about getting Nick Swisher and wish to welcome him to the New York Yankees. I hope you are all as excited as I am.

GO YANKEES IN 2009!

All MLB Team

Here is my ALL MLB TEAM (with a backup for each position)

C--Joe Mauer, MIN, Brian McCann, ATL
1B--Albert Pujols, StL; Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B--Dustin Pedroia, BOS; Chase Utley, PHI
3B--Alex Rodriguez, NYY; David Wright, NYM
SS--Hanley Ramirez, FLA; Jose Reyes, NYM
OF--Carlos Quinten, CWS; Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF--Manny Ramirez, BOS/LAD; Ryan Ludwick, StL
OF--Matt Holliday, COL; Carlos Lee, HOU

SP--Tim Lincecum, SFG
SP--Johan Santana, NYM
SP--Cole Hamels, PHI
SP--Roy Halladay, TOR
SP--Cliff Lee, CLE
CP--Mariano Rivera, NYY; Brad Lidge, PHI

Awards Season, AL CY Edition

With the playoffs starting--and finishing, depending on your team--another season of baseball starts and that's the awards season. This is one of my favorite parts of the year because the regular season is over and we can finally step back and analyze the numbers. We've finally got a perfect sample size--a whole season! Here's who I think should take home the hardware.

Next, we come to the American League Cy Young Award. This one is absolutely wide open. Off of the top of my head, I can pick at least three or four candidates: Cleveland's Cliff Lee, Toronto's Roy Hallady, Boston's Diauske Matsuzaka, Mike Mussina of our beloved Yankees, and Anaheim's Fransisco Rodriguez are the media darlings and favorites to place in the top 5 for the award.

Let's start with who shouldn't win this award, since that's usually easier than who should win it. K-Rod, despite setting the single season saves record, should come no where near winning the Cy Young Award. He wasn't even the best closer in the AL this year--that distinction goes to Mariano Rivera. I hope he can pull out more votes than Rodriguez, even though I think neither one of them should get a first place votes. In short, closers shouldn't win the Cy Young Award over starters unless there is absolutely no viable option for the Award who is a starter.

As much as I love Moose, I don't think he should win this award. 20 wins is fantastic, and he had a good ERA (6th in the league, 7th in ERA+) and a great walk rate this year, but that alone doesn't win you the Cy Young Award. Diauske's season was wonderful ERA wise, but I think everyone in the know is aware of the incredible luck that he had this year. In fact, this is how lucky:

All eyes are on Moose and his shot at 20 wins in the opener. Most of the regulars should play in this one. Let’s hope today’s the day Matsuzaka has his long overdue ERA correction (FIP: 4.08, xFIP: 4.86, tRA: 4.54). How fluky has Matsuzaka’s season been? There have been two seasons since 1901 where a pitcher walked 5 men per nine innings and finished with an ERA+ of 150 or better while pitching at least 162 innings. Matsuzaka in 2008, and Hal Newhouser in 1942.

That's from The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, a fantastic site.

Dice-K should not be rewarded for having an incredibly lucky season.

So, that leaves us with two candidates: Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. The former came out of no where, he was in the minors last year, to have an incredible season for a bad team. The latter is one of the best pitchers in baseball today, who's dominant year in and year out. Let's see how they stack up:

CL = Cliff Lee, RH = Roy Halladay, x = category winner, y = league leader

IP:
RH: 246.0 x, y
CL: 223.3

H:
RH: 220
CL: 214 x

BB:
RH: 39
CL: 34 x

WHIP:
RH: 1.053 x
CL: 1.110

SO:
RH: 206 x
CL: 170

K/BB:
RH: 5.28 x, y
CL: 5.00

K/9:
RH: 7.54 x
CL: 6.85

H/9:
RH: 8.05 x
CL: 8.63

BB/9:
RH: 1.43
CL: 1.37 x, y

Men On/9:
RH: 9.48 x
CL: 10.00

BAA:
RH: .237 x
CL: .253

OBPA:
RH: .276 x
CL: .285

SLGA:
RH: .345 x
CL: .348

OPSA:
RH: .621 x
CL: .633

ERA:
RH: 2.78
CL: 2.54 x, y

ERA+:
RH: 154
CL: 174 x, y

So, in the above categories, Roy Halladay beats Cliff Lee in 11 categories and leads the league in two. Lee wins in five, leading the league in three. This is an absolute toss up. Even when I look at a frivolous stat like wins, both guys had at least 20--Halladay had 20, Lee had 22. In losses, Halladay had 11, Lee had 3, good for the league lead in win/loss percentage. This race is essentially a tie. Let's delve a little deeper into how these guys did what they did. Digging through gamelogs via Lee's and Halladay's pages on baseball-reference.com, I found the following:

In terms of run support, Lee had the incredible advantage; he got 5.58 runs per game of support while Halladay only got 4.61 runs of support. That definitely contributed to double digit losses for Halladay. Cliff Lee had four games in which he recorded a quality start and ended up with a loss or no decision for his effort, Halladay had five of those scenarios. So it seems that Halladay made the best of his run support. The ridiculous thing is how many decisions he got. There were only three games this past season when Halladay didn't factor in the decisions, and in one of those, a relief appearance on May 18 vs. Philadelphia, he got a hold. Back to that run support, though...if Halladay had gotten the same support as Lee, he definitely would've surpassed Cliff in wins.

More in terms of luck: Cliff Lee had an FIP of 2.92. That's incredible and comes due to the incredibly small amount of walks and home runs he gave up. However, Lee's xFIP came in at 3.69. That's a big difference and indicates a pretty damn good deal of luck. Halladay's FIP was 3.09, with an xFIP of 3.23. That shows that Halladay was a little lucky, but nearly as much as Lee.

Now FIP is wonderful, but it doesn't take into consideration every single type of batted ball. tRA does. tRA also takes into consideration the run value of the type of hit, which is pretty damn cool if you ask me. Let's look at these two from the lens of tRa:

Cliff Lee's tRA weighed in at 3.17, and according to the same page and 42.0 Pitching Runs Above Average. Halladay's tRA was at 3.50 and he was at 36.3 PRAA. For the record, Baseball Prospectus' Pitchers VORP leader-board has Lee first in the Majors at 75.0 and Halladay in fourth at 71.5. This closeness is getting ridiculous.

So, who would my vote go to? I still have no idea! This is legitimately one of the closest Cy Young races I can recall. I could easily wuss out and say that I'd vote for both of them, but that's no fun. Reading through all of the info I've written, it seems that every single stat is countered by another. So, after going with my head and yielding no results, I'm gonna go all Colbert on your asses and go with my gut.

Halladay. I love him, I love Lee. If either one of them wins, I'll be happy. But I just feel that Lee got a little lucky this year. Halladay was pretty damn dominant and I feel that he was under-appreciated and almost overlooked this year. Go Roy...but go Cliff, too.

Awards Season, NL CY Edition

With the playoffs starting--and finishing, depending on your team--another season of baseball starts and that's the awards season. This is one of my favorite parts of the year because the regular season is over and we can finally step back and analyze the numbers. We've finally got a perfect sample size--a whole season! Here's who I think should take home the hardware.

The National League Cy Young was at one time in this season (whether you agreed or disagreed) a one horse race and that horse was Brandon Webb. Over the last month or two of the season, though, the race "opened" up to more possible winners.

The top three candidates in my book are Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, and Cole Hamels. Here's how they stack up against each other in various categories, "X" denoting the category's winner, Y denotes league leader in category

IP
JS: 234.1 X, Y
CH: 227.1
TL: 227

H:
JS: 206
CH: 193
TL: 182 X

BB:
JS: 63
CH: 53 X
TL: 84

WHIP:
JS: 1.149
CH: 1.083 X, Y
TL: 1.163

SO:
JS: 206
CH: 196
TL: 265 X, Y

K/BB:
JS: 3.27
CH: 3.70 X
TL: 3.23

K/9:
JS: 7.92
CH: 7.77
TL: 10.50 X, Y

H/9:
JS: 7.91
CH: 7.64
TL: 7.22 X, Y

BB/9:
JS: 2.42
CH: 2.10 X
TL: 3.33

MO (Men on)/9
JS: 10.33
CH: 9.74 X
TL: 10.55

ERA:
JS: 2.53 X, Y
CH: 3.06
TL: 2.62

ERA+
JS: 163
CH: 145
TL: 164 X, Y

So out of those categories, Santana wins two (innings and ERA, leading the league in both categories), Hamels wins five categories (walks, strikeout to walk, walks per nine, men on per nine, and WHIP, leading the league in one), and Lincecum wins in five as well (ERA+, H/9, K/9, SO, H, leading the league in four). This elementary leader board puts Lincecum ahead, due to his leading the entire NL in so many categories.

I think it's fairly obvious that the NL Cy Young winner should be Tim Lincecum. He shouldn't be punished for playing on an awful team, Cliff Lee sure won't be in the AL as he looks to be the favorite to win his league's award--more on that at another time.

Anyway, this is what my ballot would look like:
1. Tim Lincecum, SFG
2. Cole Hamels, PHI
3. Johan Santana, NYM

Awards Season, AL ROTY Edition

With the playoffs starting--and finishing, depending on your team--another season of baseball starts and that's the awards season. This is one of my favorite parts of the year because the regular season is over and we can finally step back and analyze the numbers. We've finally got a perfect sample size--a whole season! Here's who I think should take home the hardware.

After the NL MVP, the AL ROTY is the most obvious award. If anyone but Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay (I still call them the Devil) Rays even gets a first place vote, I'll go incredibly mad.

In 448 ABs, Longoria jacked 27 homers, drove in 85, and had a vital line of .272/.343/.531 for an OPS of .847, good for a 130 OPS+. He had 84 runs created, 19.3 batting runs, and 1.8 batting wins. Longoria was also 4th in range factor and zone rating among qualifying AL third basemen.

Using my elementary system of adding Batting and Fielding Runs Above Replacement/Average together, Longoria put up the following totals:

41 BRAR + 32 FRAR = 73 runs above replacement
26 BRAR + 17 FRAR = 43 runs above average

That's pretty damn good if you ask me.

While Longoria as the winner seems fairly obvious, it's not too apparent who will be the runner up. My money is on Alexei Ramirez due to a winning team, an important home run, and the large influence of the Chicago media. However, Mike Aviles is the guy who should finish second to Longoria.

In the complete and total obscurity that is Kansas City Royals baseball, Aviles put up a line of .325/.354/.480/.834, with an OPS+ of 116. He also played a solid SS, posting a fielding percentage 3 points higher than league average and a range factor that was solidly above average as well. Using the Replacement/Average additions, Aviles did:

27 BRAR + 23 FRAR = 50
14 BRAA + 3 FRAA = 17

Again, that's great for a rookie, espeically one playing shortstop.

Next is Alexei Ramirez. While I think he should finish third in this voting, he had a great year, belting 21 homers, driving in 77, and slugging .475. It's his lack of patience, though, that I think will come back and bite him; he walked only 18 times all year to the tune of a .317 OBP. A 104 OPS+ out of a second baseman, though, is still pretty good. Using my "system" Ramirez was:

20 BRAR + 10 FRAR = 30
4 BRAR + -16 FRAA = -12

So while Ramirez posted an above average year with the bat, his defense was solidly below average and that drags him down a bit.

So, if I had a vote for the AL Rookie of the Year, my ballot would look like this:

1. Evan Longoria, 3B TBD
2. Mike Aviles, SS KCR
3. Alexei Ramirez, 2B CHW

Awards Season: NL MVP Edition.

With the playoffs starting--and finishing, depending on your team--another season of baseball starts and that's the awards season. This is one of my favorite parts of the year because the regular season is over and we can finally step back and analyze the numbers. We've finally got a perfect sample size--a whole season! Here's who I think should take home the hardware.

I'll start with an easy one. The National League MVP is Albert Pujols. Yes, I know Ryan Howard had a monster September and finished with the league lead in homers and runs batted in but that alone does not mean he should win the MVP. Despite leading in those categories, he didn't crack the top ten in Batting Runs, Runs Created, or Batting Wins. To his credit, he did finish first in ABs per homer and fourth in total bases, and seventh in slugging percentage. All in all, that's a pretty good year considering how awful he started; but Albert Pujols wasn't other-worldly for just a month like Howard was for September.

He was other worldly for an entire year. This year, Pujols is second in OBP (.462), first in sluggling (.653), first in OPS (1.114), third in hits, first in total bases, fourth in doubles, homers, and runs batted in, second in walks, first in OPS+, first in runs created, first in batting runs, and first in batting wins. To paraphrase what I read in an article on The Hardball Times: Albert Pujols is better than anyone on the planet at hitting a baseball. If the baseball writers flub this one, which I'm sure they will, I will completely lose what little faith I had left in them.

Take this into consideration as well: Ryan Howard was third on HIS OWN TEAM in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). While VORP has its flaws, it's a nice little crutch and the fact that Howard was the third hardest person on his team to replace is indicative of why he shouldn't be winning the MVP. Albert Pujols, on the other hand, was the hardest man in the majors to replace, with a VORP of 96.8. Ryan Howard was 39th in VORP for the 2008 season.

Predicting What the Captain Will Do Next Year

Derek Jeter's 2008 season was really a tale of two halves. In the first half, the Captain didn't look all that great. He pulled into the All-Star game, which he started, mostly because of the lack of good offensive SS's in the AL this year with a batting vital of:

.284/.345/.395/.740.

From a traditional standpoint, that's pretty damn good for a shortstop. But Derek Jeter isn't a prototypical defense-first, light hitting shortstop. He's an offense first shortstop and has been one of the better hitters in the Majors for his career. So when he put up that line in the first half, I think some of us were disappointed with Mr. Jeter's offensive output.

In the second half, though, Jeter returned to his normal hitting state, putting up this vital from the ASB on:

.324/.388/.426/.815.

While the power didn't really show up like I thought it would, the average and on base percentage were right on with his career numbers.

This left me thinking, what would Derek Jeter, one of my favorite players of all time, one of the reasons I love baseball as much as I do, do in his next season? Was this the beginning of the end? Were all those innings from March to late October finally catching up to him?

Obviously, I could rely on projections, like the ones found at fangraphs.com but where would the fun be in that? I'd rather just do some number crunching on my own. So what I decided to do was take the ten most similar players on Derek's Baseball-Reference page and see how they did in their age 34 seasons (Derek's 2008) and compare it to how they did in their age 35 seasons.

There are obviously ten players there but I only used seven for a few reasons: Arky Vaughn lost a bunch of years to the war, Bill Doerr retired after his age 33 season and Ryne Sandberg only played 57 games in his age 34 season before missing his age 35 season entirely. The players I did use were: Barry Larkin, Allen Trammell, Ray Durham, Kirby Puckett, Jay Bell, Joe Torre, and Bill Dickey.

I used only the most basic of metrics--AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ for this "study" so bear with me on the numbers. What I did was take those numbers from the comparable players 34/35 seasons and add them together, finding the differences, then added those numbers to DJ's 34 total to "predict" what he'll do in 2009. For brevity's sake, I'll list only the differences by player:

Barry Larkin: AVG: -.016, OBP: -.007, SLG: -.084, OPS: -.091, OPS+: -33

Allen Trammell: AVG: +.054, OBP: +.018, SLG: + .104, OPS: +.122, OPS+: +24

Ray Durham: AVG: -.075, OBP: -.065, SLG: -.165, OPS: -.260, OPS+: -62

Kirby Puckett: AVG: +.003, OBP: +.017, SLG: -.025, OPS: -.008, OPS+: +1

Jay Bell: AVG: -.019, OBP: +.001, SLG: -.037, OPS: -.036, OPS+: -5

Joe Torre: AVG: +.059, OBP: +.041, SLG: +.049, OPS: +.090, OPS+: +32

Bill Dickey: AVG: +.011, OBP: -.014, SLG: -.044, OPS: -.053, OPS+: -1

Averaging out the differences it came to:

AVG: +.002
OBP: -.001
SLG: -.027

So if we add those totals to Derek Jeter's total 2008 of: .300/.363/.408 we would get:

.302/.362/.381/.743

That low of an OPS has not been league average for DJ's entire career. So, if he were to in fact put that up, which I believe is a reasonable projection considering his age and position, for the first time in his career, Jeter's full season OPS+ would be under 100. For the first time, the Captain would truly be a below average hitter.

Obviously, my study is incredibly elementary and doesn't take into consideration more than a few rate stats or adjust player performances for league averages, but it's just a fun little thing to do. Hopefully Derek far outplays my projections and has a fantastic season in the new Yankee Stadium.

There's Always Next Year Part Three

Alright, now that I've sort of tackled the infield issues, I'll move onto what I think should happen in centerfield for the Bombers in the 2009 campaign.

For lack of a better word, centerfield has the potential to be an absolute clusterfuck next year. Melky Cabrera will want to take back his old spot. Brett Gardner will want to prove that he can play (hit) at the Major League level. Austin Jackson may come off a hot playoff run for Trenton, turn it into a great fall in the Arizona Fall League, and in turn, have a great spring and make a case for being on the ML roster.

Okay, the A-Jack prediction is a little lofty, and I don't think he'll be ML ready til mid-2009 at the earliest, but I like to dream.

Coming into spring, the Yankees will have to look long and hard at Melky Cabrera. 2008 was an absolute disaster for him. His hitting regressed like crazy despite good fielding and it culminated with a stint in AAA with Scranton.

Brett Gardner hit poorly in his (limited) playing time with the Yankees, but displayed great speed and good tools at the plate, mostly his eye.

I'm obviously stupid for listening to this, but Steve Philips, genius that he is, suggested last night on Baseball Tonight that the Yankees may inquire about Nate McLouth of the Pirates. Nate had an absolutely fantastic year, but I wouldn't like to trade for him. Yes, I believe in the breakout season, but something about McLouth screams "fluke" to me. That's just me, though--maybe I'm wrong. I guess if a good offer were made, I'd consider it; but if the Pirates want to move McLouth, I'm sure they'll strike while the iron is hot and get too much for him. Basically, on gut reaction, I wouldn't be in support of this move.

So if I'm in charge, if I'm Joe Girardi, my Opening Day center fielder is...the young Brett Gardner. He may not have displayed incredibly flashy numbers this season--save for some game winning hits and a 10/11 SB/CS rate (as of 9:15 PM, EST after his second steal tonight), but the tools are there. His Isolated Power (SLG-BA) isn't exactly where I'd like it (.046), but his Isolated Differential (OBP-BA) is good at .067. That power will start to come around when he learns how to hit at the major league level. I think teaching him that by throwing him in the fire is a good idea.

His arm isn't great but with a CF, I'd rather have good speed and range than a good arm. Gardner has already shown that he can be an effective CF and in limited time, he is 5 Fielding Runs Above Replacement and 4 Above Average. Compare that to Melky Cabrera's 17 FRAR and -2 FRAA and Johnny Damon's 3/-2 totals. Though this is a small sample size, I feel more comfortable with Gardner in center. His arm may not be as strong as Melky's, but he can cover more ground than Cabrera and could probably beat Johnny Damon in a foot race while running backwards.

In closing, Gardner should play center, Melky should either be a fourth outfielder or be in the minors, and Johnny Damon has no business playing the outfield anymore.

That's all for now. Congratulations to the Captain for setting the Stadium hit record--here's to "rebounding" next year and starting off the new Stadium right.

There's Always Next Year Part Two

Now I'll give my remedy for the future Yankee first base situation and the outfield logjam that would happen if Bobby Abreu remains with the Yankees, which I believe he should.

The obvious choice for replacing Giambi at first is signing a free agent...the free agent: Mark Teixeira. At about mid-season, I wanted this to happen, mostly because I felt Abreu should be gone. Now that I've rethought my position on the latter, my idea about the former has changed as well. Tex is a great player, no doubt, and a switch hitting first baseman who can play good defense is a good thing, but it's not worth 10 years, $200 million. There is a much cheaper way to replace the Giambino at first:

The first base problem can, and should, be solved internally. No, I don't mean Shelley Duncan. He is clearly a AAAA player and should've been traded in the offseason when his value was at its absolute peak. What I mean by an internal solution is using an aging player at first base. The options are Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Jorge Posada. I'll start with Posada.

Using Posada seems to make sense because of the destruction of his shoulder. This can happen if Bobby Abreu is let go. But for all intents and purposes, we'll say that Abreu is staying with the team. If that's the case, Posada needs to stay behind the plate. His shoulder will hopefully be back up to normal strength by Spring Training. He must stay behind the plate because Jose Molina's offense is killing the team. Yes, his defense is absolutely wonderful but his bat hurts the team more than his glove helps. While his defense is at 14 Runs Above Average but his offense is at -16 Runs Above Replacement. So using a rough calculation I'll do from now on when I do comparisons between offense and defense, we'll add the runs together. 14 + (-16) = -2. So basically, defense and offense included Molina has cost the Yankees two runs this year.

Using Posada as the catcher allows Molina to slip back into a role into which he's more comfortable: the backup role. Molina is a fantastic backup catcher and that's where he should stay. Posada behind the plate also allows for greater flexibility in the infield and outfield in a Nady/Abreu inclusive lineup.

For the infield, everything would stay the same except for first base. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, with their diminished outfield skill sets, could transition to first base in the off-season and Spring Training. For Damon, this would eliminate his awful arm from concern for the Yankees. For Matsui,it puts him at a position where he wouldn't have to rely on his aching knees too much. The one who doesn't play first can continue to be the designated hitter.

The outfield alignment would look like this: Nady/CF/Abreu. That leaves the question of who will play centerfield, but we'll get to that later. Leaving CF, that leaves the Yankees looking like thisin the field:

C: Posada
1B: Matsui/Damon
2B: Cano
3B: Rodriguez
SS: Jeter (he can move to first after 2009, when Matsui and Damon both have their contracts expire)
LF: Nady
CF: ??
RF: Abreu

This combination on the diamond gives the Yankees a much better presence at the plate, since both Nady and Abreu can be in the lineup. First base's offensive output might not be as powerful as it was, but Matsui and Damon can both still hit pretty competently.

I'll tackle the issue of centerfield in my next post...

-Matt

There's Always Next Year

I sit down writing this piece with a strange blend of emotions.

First, I must obviously take note of the date. It's September 11, 2008. Seven years have passed since the most terrifying day in my existence. Nothing will ever come close to touching the amount of fear and heartbreak that I felt that day. I remember the little details about that day and the night before. The night before, I was sitting three rows behind home plate with my Spanish teacher and two friends at Yankee Stadium. On the way to the game, I heard that Incubus song with the line "whatever tomorrow brings, I'll be there." Obviously, I thought nothing of it. Looking back now, nothing was more appropriate. The game was rained out. I went home and watched the Giants win Monday Night Football against the Denver Broncos. Ed McCaffery broke his leg. My friend Phil told me what happened in Mr. Epstein's World Themes class. I thought it was just an accident, then he told me it was two planes crashing into the towers and I knew something was wrong. Throughout the day, we got little updates over the loudspeaker or by using a computer. I remember my school's principal, a little elfish looking woman we all loved to make fun of, coming over the loudspeaker when I was in learning center (read: study hall) and telling us that the towers collapsed. Suddenly, my math homework didn't seem too important. I put my head down and began to cry. I remember a tear falling onto the lens of my glasses. I remember going home and seeing the full destruction of what happened. My mother had the day off and went to the beach, since our beaches at home have a fantastic view of the city. It was a beautiful day and everything was clear as could be...except the smoke. She and my sister were out doing some errand at some point. I was sitting outside, tired of seeing the news coverage. I looked at a big oak tree in our yard when they pulled in and pointed to it. "That's all that's left," I said. "Some pieces of metal about that big."

My late grandfather was sitting in traffic on the George Washington Bridge. He was taking his pigeons to the Vince Lombardi Service Station on the New Jersey Turnpike to let them fly back home for training for their race that Saturday. That race didn't happen. Nothing did. I didn't know anyone personally who died, just one of my father's customers. Regardless of that, I'll never forget that moment, that day, that event in which 3,000 people died in a matter of hours. I aspire to teach and I don't quite know how I'll explain to my students what happened on that day. How can someone who was either too young to remember or not born appreciate what happened that day? I liken it to my parents and aunts and uncles trying to tell my generation about what happened when JFK was shot, or my grandparents telling us about when Pearl Harbor was bombed. Maybe we understand that it was a moment of incredible terror, but we don't fully appreciate what happened.

Now, onto baseball....

The Yankees are beyond the point where the final nail is in the coffin. The coffin is six feet under, the dirt is being piled on, and the eulogy is starting. A eulogy is exactly what this final home-stand for Yankees will feel like. It was supposed to be a celebration of greatness, but now it will just be a mourning of mediocrity.

When I think about the prospect of the Yankees missing the playoffs, I think of the Dashboard Confessional song "The Brilliant Dance," specifically the first few lines:

"So this is odd. The painful realization that all has gone wrong."

Everything has gone wrong with the Yankees this season. The young pitchers didn't pitch, the young hitters didn't hit, and even the veterans didn't hit--much. The offense still shows flashes of brilliance, but compared to the juggernaut it was last year, it is nothing. Missing a bunch of players hurts. A lot. But injuries cannot be fully blamed for this year's mishap. So, with a strange feeling, I look forward to the offseason and what I think next year should look like.

First, there is the issue of free-agency. The biggest names for the Yankees who will be free agents are:
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte
Ivan Rodriguez
Jason Giambi
Bobby Abreu

Of those, all of them could be gone. And I have advocated that. Why not? The Yankees could use the draft picks from those players to sure up the farm system. The farm system has gotten much better, but it never hurts to have more prospects. However, in recent days, I've been re-thinking my position. While the Yankees are in a situation in which rebuilding might have to be an option, getting picks makes a lot of sense. The first round of the draft could just be the Yankees and Brewers alternating picks. But then it hit me, the Yankees are going to need to keep at least one of these players. Mike Mussina has pitched well enough to earn himself another year with the Yankees, and I think that will happen, despite the fact that it is not incredibly necessary for him to come back. A veteran player in the rotation is nice, but he would just be blocking the spot of some younger player the Yankees could season. I see this no playoffs thing as a trend, not an aberration. If that's going to be the case, why not get some of the young guys to develop in the process? I mean, what's the point of having prospects if we're never going to test them? The longer we wait to to that, the worse off we'll be in the future.

The one player the Yankees need to keep is...Bobby Abreu. Yes his defense is absolutely awful, but his bat is great and it fits the Yankees style of play. When they traded for Xavier Nady, the Yankees were pretty much saying that Bobby Abreu would only be a Yankee for the rest of this season, then it would be so long. I thought along those lines, too. In the last few days, though, I've seen the error in that thinking.

Nady's hot start had us all thinking he was going to mash like this for the rest of the year. Well, no. Xavier Nady has had a great season, no doubt. However, it's been incredibly fluke-ish. His fantastic first week with the Yankees seemed to grant him a grace period, but his last calender month of baseball has been pretty crappy.

Since August 11th, Nady has posted this as his hitting vital:

.257/.303/.434/.737, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 33 SO, 7 BB.

Slumps happen, but a 33/7 K/BB ratio is unacceptable. Why does a bad month mean he shouldn't be the everyday outfielder for the Yankees next year? Why does this justify my feelings that he shouldn't replace Abreu? Well, that alone doesn't; but Xavier Nady's career as a whole does. He's a .282/.337/.462/.799 player for his career. Is that bad? Hardly, his OPS+ comes in at 110. He's had a fantastic season, but his numbers have slowly climbed down from the incredible start he had with the Pirates and with the Yankees. Abreu is a much more solid hitter than Nady.

So instead of picking one or the other, the Yankees really should do both. But, Matt, you say. That leaves a horrible logjam in the outfield. In the words of Lee Corso: not so fast my friend. This post is running long. I'll get into it in my next one, which should come tomorrow.

-Matt

Ding Dong, the Season's Dead

Well, that's it folks. The Yankees have just lost to the Seattle Mariners and are officially in fourth place. Let me say now that I am declaring the season 1,000% over. This baseball team is beyond embarrassing. To have a lineup that includes the players that it does and to score this few runs and win this few games is appalling. Yes there have been a litany of injuries but the Yankees dug their own grave this year with their awful play. This team has been dead in the water for about a month now. Well, Yankee fans, the ship has finally sunk. Here's to next year...More on that in the days to come...

Stop the NL Cy Young Madness

The NL Cy Young madness needs to end. Now. People in the mainstream media and here on the internet need to stop calling Brandon Webb the NL Cy Young Award winner or the favorite to win the award.

Brandon Webb has definitely had a great year but to call him the NL's best pitcher is just ludicrous, especially since he may not even be the best pitcher on his own team.

There is a case to be made that Danny Haren, not Brandon Webb, is the best pitcher on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Webb may boast an impressive 19-6 record compared to Haren's 14-7 but that is one of the only clear cut advantages Mr. Webb has over Mr. haren.

In just about every statistical category, they are close:

Stat
IP: Webb: 192.0, Haren: 190.3
H: Webb: 174, Haren: 154
BB: Webb: 51, Haren: 30
WHIP: Webb: 1.172, Haren: 1.091
SO: Webb: 160, Haren: 176
K/BB: Webb: 3.13, Haren: 5.86
K/9: Webb: 7.50, Haren: 8.52
ERA: Webb 3.19, Haren: 3.24
BB/9: Webb: 2.39, Haren: 1.45
H/9: Webb: 8.16, Haren: 8.37
MO/9: Webb: 10.55, Haren: 9.82
AVG: Webb: .241, Haren: .244
OBP: Webb: .296, Haren: .279
SLG: Webb: .335, Haren: .375
OPS: Webb: .631, Haren: .655
BABIP: Webb: .290, Haren: .301

So they're close in just about everything. Webb gets the advantage in innings, hits per nine innings, BAA, SLGA, and OPSA, with Haren taking the rest. It's interesting to note that even though he has a higher SLGA, OPSA, and allows more hits per nine, Danny Haren, he allows fewer base-runners per nine innings than his counterpart, Brandon Webb, 9.82 to 10.55.

As you can see, I used all "traditional" stats, with the exception of one: Batting Average on Balls in Play, or BABIP. I like to use this stat as a sort of crutch to see how lucky a pitcher is getting. WHIP can also be used this way: a pitcher with a low ERA but high WHIP is getting lucky (see: Diasuke Matsuzaka). The average BABIP for the league is about .300. That means that anyone who has a BABIP of or around .300 is essentially "breaking even" in terms of luck. Anything above .300 signifies that a pitcher is getting bad luck and anything below .300 shows that a pitcher is getting good luck. Anyway, it's not a huge variation, but Webb is coming in at a .290 clip on BABIP, whereas Haren comes in at .301, thus breaking even. Webb seems to be getting a little lucky.

Haren's ERA might be a little higher than Webb's, but his lower WHIP, and sweep of the "per-nine" categories makes him the better choice, in my opinion. What's more, Haren leads the league with his 1.45 BB/9 and his 5.86 K/BB. Webb leads in wins and games started--I'll take BB/9 and K/BB over wins and starts.

With how close these are, it's a wonder how anyone can have Webb as the clear cut favorite to win the Cy Young. In my opinion, he doesn't even win his TEAM'S Cy Young Award, much less the entire National League's. It seems that Webb's lofty 19 win total is what's garnering him so much praise. If he had Danny Haren's win total, no one would be saying anything about his Cy Young candidacy. Wins suck.

Who, then, if not Webb, should be the NL Cy Young winner? The answer to that one is Tim Lincecum. He has blossomed into a true pitching star despite his yet-to-hit-puberty frame and funky mechanics and should be rewarded for his absolutely brilliant performance this season on an absolutely awful, awful baseball team.

Here are Tim Linecum's numbers:

IP: 190.3
H: 154
BB: 72
WHIP: 1.187
SO: 210
K/BB: 3.00
K/9: 10.22
ERA: 2.60
BB/9: 3.41
H/9: 7.28
MO/9: 10.66
AVG: .222
OBP: .298
SLG: .316
OPS: .614
BABIP: .306

Webb may have the control edge (BB/9, K/BB, WHIP, OBPA), but Lincecum's .222 BAA and league leading 210 strikeouts are just dominating and neutralize his higher walk total. And despite those walks, his WHIP still comes in at a great 1.187 and he's obviously not letting those runners score, as evidenced by the league leading 2.60 ERA.

What Lincecum doesn't have, like Haren, is the win total to be considered in the running: he only has 15 wins to Webb's 19. A lower win total usually means a lower vote total from the Baseball Writers. The irony here is that Lincecum actually has a better winning percentage than his Arizona counterpart, .833-.760. Lincecum, had he received proper run support, could have 23 wins by now. How is that possible? Well, Tim Lincecum has had EIGHT games this year in which he's recorded a quality start (at least six innings pitched with no more than three earned runs allowed) and gotten nothing for it, with the game resulting in either a no decision or a loss.

In my perfect baseball world, Tim Lincecum is the 2008 NL Cy Young winner. Hopefully, the Baseball Writers see it that way and the Brandon Webb madness stops.

-Matt

Is It Over?

For the second time in a row, Andy Pettitte faltered when the Yankees needed him to come through. This is upsetting, especially since Pettitte has been such a stopper in previous years.

Roy Halladay looked fantastic like always--except for 2 pitches to A-Rod and Giambi.

The only positive I can take from this game is that Alfredo Aceves looked very strong. His breaking ball had good, sharp movement. His fastball also showed good life and moved away from lefties and backed up righties. Hopefully, he can add some life to the Yankees bullpen, though it is probably too little too late.

The Yankees need to play essentially flawless baseball on this roadtrip. It's looking pretty grim...

Unbelieveable...

This is why the Yankees are a third place team...

Game 134 Thoughts.

Well, the Yankees won 2-1, they got great pitching all night--Carl Pavano was impressive and Mo was vintage Mo. Anyway, here are some other thoughts I had whilst watching from my GF's couch...

In A-Rod's first at bat, the second pitch specifically, he expanded the zone like crazy and went fishing for a pitch. He's been doing this a lot this month--hence the struggles--but it's really starting to show. Xavier Nady seems to be doing the same thing. His swing is flying open on the outside pitch and he's whiffing on it. He's also swinging his absolute hardest on just about every swing. It's nice that he's not getting cheated, but it seems to be leading to a few more strikeouts than necessary. On a related note, when Mr. Rodriguez has been making contact with outside pitches, he seems to have been doing one of two things: either rolling his hands over and grouning out (ten double plys this month) or getting just under it and fouling it back to the screen. Alex clearly has power to the right side--to all sides for that matter--but is getting caught up in trying to pull the ball--doubles to the RC gap count just as much those to Death Valley.

I thought we were gonna have the first test of instant replay on Johnny Damon's fly ball to right, but alas, it endedup being a fairly simple call.

Snider for Toronto got his first ML hit--congrats to him and I hope he has a long, successful career--just so long as he doesn't get anymore hits against the Yankees ;-)

AJ Burnett owns Jason Giambi and Alexis Rios looks like Nosferatu.

That's it for tonight, great game for the Yankees--let's hope they can do it about 20 more times and get into the playoffs.

Game 134: Blue Jays at Yankees

Here is the lineup for the Yankees tonight courtesy of Peter Abraham.

YANKEES (71-62)
Damon CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
A. Rodriguez 3B
Giambi 1B
Nady LF
Matsui DH
Cano 2B
I. Rodriguez C
Pavano RHP

Back after the game for post-game thoughts.

GO YANKS!

Leading Off

I'm not sure how many, if any, people will be reading this but welcome. I'll try to keep this up as much as possible with posts about anything from incredibly specific articles on the Yankees to just my general thoughts on baseball. A lot of the time, I won't have access to games since I go to UConn and their cable package doesn't carry YES. However, my wonderful girlfriend, Liz, has the Extra-Innings package and she gladly provides play-by-play for me when I can't watch games. She's gonna help out here, too, adding pre and post game thoughts with me. Anyway, here goes!

Some thoughts on the state of the team right now:

Things are bleak...very, very bleak. Obviously, making the playoffs is still possible...but realistically, I don't think it's going to happen. For the first time in my time as a Yankee fan (essentially my entire life), they will be missing the playoffs. It comes as an odd reality, but one that I'm ready and willing to face. For the beginnings of the past few seasons, my pessimism shining through, I've thought that the playoffs were out of reach for the Yankees. Now that "bad dream" might finally be coming true. I can't help but think of R.E.M: "It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine." Perhaps the Yankees not making the playoffs will wake the entire organization up into possibly changing things. While I think things like "heart" are overrated, this team clearly lacks it. Passion has been totally absent from this team despite their claims of playing in a "playoff atmosphere" for the last few weeks. Maybe biting this "no-playoff" bullet will be good and the Yankees will be able to develop some prospects in the coming weeks when rosters expand. The decision to call up Alfredo Aceves is a great one--even though it comes rather late--and it'll be nice to see him get some major league innings. Hopefully Phil Franchise can get some more major league work before '08 ends, as well. Maybe Brett Gardner (my new favorite player) will get some more time, too. His tools are definitely fantastic and the future in CF for the Yankees looks very bright.

Troubles w/RISP

While I'm not a huge fan of the whole "clutch" thing that has baseball in a death grip right now, the Yankees' situational hitting has been just awful this year, especially compared to previous years:

2006 w/RISP: .286/.386/.479/.865
2007 w/RISP: .293/.378/.451/.829
2008 w/RISP: .259/.345/.389/.735

Right now, the Yankees are 8/14 in the AL in runs. In 2006 they were first and in 2007 they were first again. More on this later, on an individual level. That's all for now, check back tomorrow night for a game wrap up.

-Matt