Ramblings on Robbie

While the chatter has calmed down in the mainstream media, every so often it pops up that the Yankees should consider trading Robinson Cano. Well, this just isn't a very smart. Yes, he had a crappy year last year, but he picked it up in the second half:

First Half: .246/.285/.358/.643
Second Half: .307/.333/.482/.815

Cano is more than capable of putting up those numbers from the second half for an entire season; hell, it looks an awful lot like his 2007 season. So why did Cano have the jump? His BABIP jumped from .252 in the first half to .320 in the second. That big jump led to a lot of hits. Now, that doesn't tell the whole story, of course. Cano had a line drive percentage of 19.4 this season, which is a good mark. He also had the most line drives in his career with 104. However, he also had a career high mark in fly balls at 178 which translated to a career high fly ball percentage of 33.2%.

Based on those numbers, it appears that Cano had trouble getting on top of the ball. When a player hits a fly ball, the chances of it becoming a hit are pretty small. That career high fly ball percentage shows that Cano was probably dipping his shoulders or not driving with his lower half while at the plate. Hopefully, he and Kevin Long have worked this out with a new stance.

Since I'm big on projections and what not, let's see what CHONE has for Robbie in 2009.

.300/.340/.468/.808, 16 HR, 79 RsBI, 29 BB, 65 SO in 556 AB. That's very good for a 2B

Now let's work something out like I did in my last post and project his worth via Marcels batting projections and CHONE defense.

Cano projects to be 4.6 runs over average. Adding the positional adjustment (+2.5), that number goes to 7.1. Cano's CHONE defensive projection, 0, it stays the same. Divide by 10.5 and add 2 for the replacement adjustment and you get about 2.70 Wins Above Replacement. Multiply that by five and that's 13.5. Cano projects to be worth 13.5 million dollars. Cano is being paid $6 million for 2009. That's a big value.

So, yeah, don't trade Robbie. He's good, he's young, and he'll probably easily out play his salary.

What's a Player Worth?

With the Yankees recent splurge on free agents and trades, there are a lot of people talking about who's overpaid, who's underpaid, responsible spending, irresponsible spending, and the like. For that reason, I'd like to take a look at the Yankees two acquisitions on the offensive side of things: Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira.

To do this, I'll be turning their projected runs above average using Marcels projections for hitters and their CHONE Defensive Projections.

My method will be the same as found on my friend Mike's blog Fire Jim Leyland. For an example of how these calculations work, go to this post. An example:

Lets run through an example. We'll use Curtis Granderson. His RAA in my table comes out at +15.7. His CHONE defensive projection has him at +13 runs. That makes him now at +28.7 runs above average. He gets another 2.5 run boost for being a Centerfielder, which puts his RAA at 31.2. Divide that by 10.5 and you get 2.97 Wins Above Average. Add in another 2, and he becomes 4.97 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. That equates out to being $24.85 million. His 2009 salary is currently just $3.5 million, a difference of $21.35 million -- quite the bargain.

10.5 is roughly the amount of runs that equal one win and the two is used because a replacement player is two runs worse than an average player. To get the dollar amount, you multiply by five (millions of dollars), which is the approximate value of a win The positional adjustments Mike talks about are as follows:

Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second Base/Third Base/Centerfield: +2.5 runs
Left Field/Right Field: -7.5 runs
First Base: -7.5 runs
DH: -17.5 runs

Let's run through the numbers for Mr. Swisher first. On the Marcels spread sheet, we can find that he will be worth 5.8 runs over average. If we want to project Swisher as a corner outfielder, we find his defensive projection on the CHONE site and find that in the corners, Swisher is projected to be a +5 defender. Thus, our equation becomes:

5.8 (runs over average)-7.5 (postiion adjustment) = -1.7+5 (projected defense) = 3.3/10.5 +2 = 2.31 Wins over Replacement. So, as a corner outfielder, Nick Swisher projects to be worth 2.31 Wins over Replacement Player. Multiply that by five to get the dollar amount Swisher's 2008 performance projects to be and you get: $11.55 million dollars. A quick trip over to Cot's MLB Contracts and we find that Nick Swisher will make $5.3 million in 2009. So if Nick Swisher plays to his projection as a corner outfielder, the Yankees are saving $6.25 million on him.

If you want to make Swisher the CF, switch the positional adjustment (+2.5) and the defensive projection (-2) and he comes out at 2.50 wins over replacement, but only because CFs are harder to replace than corner OFs. Still, his dollar value there would be $12.5 mil, a money saver for the Yankees.

Projecting Swisher at first is more or less a moot point because of Tex, but for shits and giggles, he'd be 1.36 WAR, or $6.8 million. Still a "money saver," but less valuable than if he were in the OF.

Now, we come to the big boy. Mark Teixeira. The Yankees just gave him an eight year, 180 million dollar contract, with an AAV of $22.5 million. That's going to be hard for Tex to match, from a standpoint like this. Let's see how it works out. Via the Marcels spreadsheet, Teixeira will be 28.2 runs over average this year. So:

28.2 - 12.5 = 15.7 + 6 (projected runs at 1B) = 21.7/10.5 + 2 = 4.07 WAR x 5 = 20.35. So, Tex's value projects to be $20.35 million this year. According to Cots, Mark will make a flat $20 million this year. So, the Yankees will, in fact, be paying Tex .35 million dollars less than he projects to be worth. It's a small number, but the Yankees are "saving" with Tex.