Thursday, October 9, 2008

Awards Season, NL CY Edition

With the playoffs starting--and finishing, depending on your team--another season of baseball starts and that's the awards season. This is one of my favorite parts of the year because the regular season is over and we can finally step back and analyze the numbers. We've finally got a perfect sample size--a whole season! Here's who I think should take home the hardware.

The National League Cy Young was at one time in this season (whether you agreed or disagreed) a one horse race and that horse was Brandon Webb. Over the last month or two of the season, though, the race "opened" up to more possible winners.

The top three candidates in my book are Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, and Cole Hamels. Here's how they stack up against each other in various categories, "X" denoting the category's winner, Y denotes league leader in category

JS: 234.1 X, Y
CH: 227.1
TL: 227

JS: 206
CH: 193
TL: 182 X

JS: 63
CH: 53 X
TL: 84

JS: 1.149
CH: 1.083 X, Y
TL: 1.163

JS: 206
CH: 196
TL: 265 X, Y

JS: 3.27
CH: 3.70 X
TL: 3.23

JS: 7.92
CH: 7.77
TL: 10.50 X, Y

JS: 7.91
CH: 7.64
TL: 7.22 X, Y

JS: 2.42
CH: 2.10 X
TL: 3.33

MO (Men on)/9
JS: 10.33
CH: 9.74 X
TL: 10.55

JS: 2.53 X, Y
CH: 3.06
TL: 2.62

JS: 163
CH: 145
TL: 164 X, Y

So out of those categories, Santana wins two (innings and ERA, leading the league in both categories), Hamels wins five categories (walks, strikeout to walk, walks per nine, men on per nine, and WHIP, leading the league in one), and Lincecum wins in five as well (ERA+, H/9, K/9, SO, H, leading the league in four). This elementary leader board puts Lincecum ahead, due to his leading the entire NL in so many categories.

I think it's fairly obvious that the NL Cy Young winner should be Tim Lincecum. He shouldn't be punished for playing on an awful team, Cliff Lee sure won't be in the AL as he looks to be the favorite to win his league's award--more on that at another time.

Anyway, this is what my ballot would look like:
1. Tim Lincecum, SFG
2. Cole Hamels, PHI
3. Johan Santana, NYM

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