Baseball Goings On

Alright there's a decent amount of stuff to talk about so let's get right to it.

First, there's Andy Pettitte. He seems to have rejected the Yankees one year, ten million dollar contract offer. If I'm Cash, I call his bluff and say "Alright, Andy. You said Yankees or retire. You have the offer. If you want to leave it, fine. Have a nice retired life." The Yankees can definitely live without Andy Pettitte, as I said in my last blog post.

CHONE has projected Andy Pettitte at 9-9, 167 IP, 185 H, 15 HR, 54 BB, 125 SO, 5 HBP, 87 R, 80 ER, 4.31 ERA. That's a decent season. Decent. This would be nice for the Yankees to have, but there is no doubt in my mind that some combination of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, and possibly Phil Coke (who is getting a shot as a starter in Spring Training) could replicate those numbers, or something close to it.

But of course, I'm not Brian Cashman and this decision isn't in my hands. Chances are the Yankees could give Andy a little Yankee-bonus and raise their offer. In fact, according to those very same CHONE projections, Andy is worth 2.3 Wins over Replacement, which according to CHONE, is worth $10.1 million. I'm assuming the organization has this information and that could be why they're not budging. However, I"m more than certain they'd be willing to up the offer to $11 million, to which I wouldn't be opposed. But, I'd rather have them yank the offer off the table.

Next, there's the Jason Giambi signing. I think this move could win the A's the division again. A 3-4 combo of Matt Holliday is probably the best 3-4 combo in the AL West, now that Milton Bradley has left the Rangers for the Chicago Cubs on a three year, $30 million deal--more on that later.

Giambi's deal is for a shockingly low $4.5 million with a $5 million option for 2010. Now, I know Giambi is aging and not what he was when he was first in Oakland or even in New York, but he's worth more than that, IMO.

By my calculations, the same as the ones found here, Giambi will be worth $7.38 million as a DH and $8.33 million as a first baseman. So, like usual, Billy Beane is getting a discount.

On another note with the Giambi signing, for the last few years, every time the Yankees played in Oakland, the (hundreds of) fans in attendance would chant "STEROIDS" while Giambi came to the plate. Every time I would hear this, I would think to myself "Don't these dumb fucks realize that Giambi was taking steroids when he won an MVP in 2000 and was robbed of one in '01?" Morons. They'll start cheering for him again, though; that I'm sure of.

The next thing I'd like to touch on is the signings of Milton Bradley in Chicago and Pat Burrell in Tampa Bay. I think both signings are great for each team. Bradley and Burrell are underrated hitters and the argument could be made that both players were signed uner market value. The only thing holding back Bradley's value is his health. He's only played 140+ games ONCE in his career.

For what it's worth, Bradley projects to be worth $19.14 million next year:

21.7 runs above average - 7.5 (corner OF pos. adjustment) + 5 (corner def. projection)/10.5 (runs per win) + 2 (replacement level adjustment) x 5 (millions of dollars, value of win)

So the Cubs are definitely getting a huge discount on Mr. Board Game (lame joke, I know.).

As for Burrell, he made $14 million last year alone. Now, he's signed a two year, $16 million contract with the Rays. That's $8M a year. Burrell just took a $6M pay cut. Damn. Burrell's value this year projects to be worth $10.57 million in 2009. The Rays just made another great move after trading Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce.

What does all of this have to do with the Yankees? Directly, not much; they're not in the market for a corner outfielder. However, indirectly it matters. Burrell and Bradley getting relatively below market-rate contracts for their services means that Brian Cashman anticipated the market tremendously when he didn't offer arbitration to Bobby Abreu. Abreu would've won way too much money through arbitration than he will probably get through free agency. Bobby Made $16 million in 2008 and his performance was valued at $5 million. This year, in the outfield, he projects to be worth 7.52 million (that -11 CHONE defensive projection really hurts) and 8 million flat as a DH. Funny, the deal Pat Burrell signed is exactly what Bobby Abreu should get.

Lastly, there's Mark Teixeira. I watched his press conference on Tuesday and was absolutely pumped. Tex seems genuinely elated to be here and I cannot wait for him to hit the field in pinstripes. Like he said, we should all go give his wife Leigh a big hug for convincing Mark to come to the Bronx!

What's Next?

After locking up the three biggest free agents on the market and trading for Nick Swisher, it would seem that the Yankees are essentially set for 2009. However, there are still holes.

PITCHING

The fact that the one year, ten million dollar contract offer to Andy Pettitte hasn't been rescinded shows that the Yankees aren't quite ready to go to the season with a rotation of Sabathia/Wang/Burnett/Chamberlain/Hughes? Kennedy? Aceves?

So what should be done with Andy Pettitte? The first thing that should be done is that a hard deadline should be made for Pettitte to accept the offer and move on. I'd say give Pettitte two more weeks to decide. If he doesn't accept the offer, then the Yankees should go into the season with the rotation listed above. While it's nice to have an "innings eater" (code for: the guy generally sucks but at least he can throw a lot) on a one year deal who would essentially be keeping Phil Hughes's spot warm, the Yankees can do with out him. His 07 ERA was decent at 4.05 but his 4.54 mark this year and 07/08 WHIPs of 1.426 and 1.412 respectively can be done with out.

OUTFIELD SURPLUS

Next there is the issue of the OF surplus. There is a simple solution to this. Make Brett Gardner the fourth outfielder, play Xavier Nady in left, Johnny Damon in center, and Nick Swisher in right. This would yeild a good amount of runs, defense could be a problem. Of that alignment, Nick Swisher is the only one projected to be a plus defender. While the offense could probably out-slug the defensive issues, that approach hasn't always worked for the Yankees.

Another problem with that alignment is that Brian Cashman has said that Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera will battle for the CF spot in spring training and that neither Swisher nor Damon will be in CF. So, that could eliminate my idea. However, Brian Cashman also said Nick Swisher would be the first baseman going forward, and we all know how that turned out.

But I'm gonna take Brian Cashman at his word and believe that only Brett the Jet and the Melk Man are CF candidates. That leaves us with three outfielders for two spots. Or, two outfielders for two spots. Johnny Damon is a lock in left--he's a great defender there and his bat can still more or less hold up there; after all, he was second on the Yankees in VORP last year.

So who gets the nod in right and what do we do with the odd man out? In my mind, Nick Swisher is the right fielder. He's got a better track record as a hitter and a fielder. Want the numbers to prove it? Okay!

OPS:
Swisher: .805
Nady: .793

wOBA:
Swisher: .347
Nady: .342

ISO:
Swisher: .208
Nady: .178

RC/G:
Swisher: 5.6
Nady: 5.3

Alright you get the idea. As for fielding, the two would be up for the right field job. Swisher has a career UZR/150 of 14.2 in right, compared to Nady's 0.5. Swisher has to be out there in right.

What, then, do you do with Xaiver Nady? My gut reaction is to trade him. But, for the life of me, I can't think of what I'd ask for in exchange and what could be given back. Nady's got the highest value coming off of a career year and would be the easiest to move, but he's in a contract year so would teams really be willing to take him on as a rental? Maybe, maybe not.

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense for the Yankees to keep Nady on. Now, he's not great, but he's definitely better than a bench outfielder, especially with one of Gardner or Cabrera already there. So what I suggest is a platoon between him and Hideki Matsui at DH. Nady absolutely crushes lefties and is 'meh' against right handers for his career and this platoon could help Matsui stay healthy. Keeping Nady also allows for more off days for Damon when he needs to take one as he's no spring chicken.

THE BENCH

Then there's the issue of the bench. Jose Molina's definitely the backup catcher, with new acquisition Kevin Cash waiting if he or Posada gets hurt. One of Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner will be on the bench as an outfielder obviously, and probably one of Swisher or Nady. However, there doesn't seem to be anyone who can fill the middle infield positions or third if need be. Who can do that job? There were rumblings that Justin Christian was being converted to infield but I haven't heard anything of that lately. The free agent class for infielders this year isn't all that great either. I really have no idea what they're gonna do here. I'm gonna throw this out there just for shits and giggles: Nomar. I'm not sure if I'm serious about that(EDIT: You know what? Forget that I said that. Just being comical). When I hear more about what the Yankees are doing about the bench, I'll post more seriously about it. Anyway, thanks for reading the essay. As always, feedback is encouraged.

Ramblings on Robbie

While the chatter has calmed down in the mainstream media, every so often it pops up that the Yankees should consider trading Robinson Cano. Well, this just isn't a very smart. Yes, he had a crappy year last year, but he picked it up in the second half:

First Half: .246/.285/.358/.643
Second Half: .307/.333/.482/.815

Cano is more than capable of putting up those numbers from the second half for an entire season; hell, it looks an awful lot like his 2007 season. So why did Cano have the jump? His BABIP jumped from .252 in the first half to .320 in the second. That big jump led to a lot of hits. Now, that doesn't tell the whole story, of course. Cano had a line drive percentage of 19.4 this season, which is a good mark. He also had the most line drives in his career with 104. However, he also had a career high mark in fly balls at 178 which translated to a career high fly ball percentage of 33.2%.

Based on those numbers, it appears that Cano had trouble getting on top of the ball. When a player hits a fly ball, the chances of it becoming a hit are pretty small. That career high fly ball percentage shows that Cano was probably dipping his shoulders or not driving with his lower half while at the plate. Hopefully, he and Kevin Long have worked this out with a new stance.

Since I'm big on projections and what not, let's see what CHONE has for Robbie in 2009.

.300/.340/.468/.808, 16 HR, 79 RsBI, 29 BB, 65 SO in 556 AB. That's very good for a 2B

Now let's work something out like I did in my last post and project his worth via Marcels batting projections and CHONE defense.

Cano projects to be 4.6 runs over average. Adding the positional adjustment (+2.5), that number goes to 7.1. Cano's CHONE defensive projection, 0, it stays the same. Divide by 10.5 and add 2 for the replacement adjustment and you get about 2.70 Wins Above Replacement. Multiply that by five and that's 13.5. Cano projects to be worth 13.5 million dollars. Cano is being paid $6 million for 2009. That's a big value.

So, yeah, don't trade Robbie. He's good, he's young, and he'll probably easily out play his salary.

What's a Player Worth?

With the Yankees recent splurge on free agents and trades, there are a lot of people talking about who's overpaid, who's underpaid, responsible spending, irresponsible spending, and the like. For that reason, I'd like to take a look at the Yankees two acquisitions on the offensive side of things: Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira.

To do this, I'll be turning their projected runs above average using Marcels projections for hitters and their CHONE Defensive Projections.

My method will be the same as found on my friend Mike's blog Fire Jim Leyland. For an example of how these calculations work, go to this post. An example:

Lets run through an example. We'll use Curtis Granderson. His RAA in my table comes out at +15.7. His CHONE defensive projection has him at +13 runs. That makes him now at +28.7 runs above average. He gets another 2.5 run boost for being a Centerfielder, which puts his RAA at 31.2. Divide that by 10.5 and you get 2.97 Wins Above Average. Add in another 2, and he becomes 4.97 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. That equates out to being $24.85 million. His 2009 salary is currently just $3.5 million, a difference of $21.35 million -- quite the bargain.

10.5 is roughly the amount of runs that equal one win and the two is used because a replacement player is two runs worse than an average player. To get the dollar amount, you multiply by five (millions of dollars), which is the approximate value of a win The positional adjustments Mike talks about are as follows:

Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second Base/Third Base/Centerfield: +2.5 runs
Left Field/Right Field: -7.5 runs
First Base: -7.5 runs
DH: -17.5 runs

Let's run through the numbers for Mr. Swisher first. On the Marcels spread sheet, we can find that he will be worth 5.8 runs over average. If we want to project Swisher as a corner outfielder, we find his defensive projection on the CHONE site and find that in the corners, Swisher is projected to be a +5 defender. Thus, our equation becomes:

5.8 (runs over average)-7.5 (postiion adjustment) = -1.7+5 (projected defense) = 3.3/10.5 +2 = 2.31 Wins over Replacement. So, as a corner outfielder, Nick Swisher projects to be worth 2.31 Wins over Replacement Player. Multiply that by five to get the dollar amount Swisher's 2008 performance projects to be and you get: $11.55 million dollars. A quick trip over to Cot's MLB Contracts and we find that Nick Swisher will make $5.3 million in 2009. So if Nick Swisher plays to his projection as a corner outfielder, the Yankees are saving $6.25 million on him.

If you want to make Swisher the CF, switch the positional adjustment (+2.5) and the defensive projection (-2) and he comes out at 2.50 wins over replacement, but only because CFs are harder to replace than corner OFs. Still, his dollar value there would be $12.5 mil, a money saver for the Yankees.

Projecting Swisher at first is more or less a moot point because of Tex, but for shits and giggles, he'd be 1.36 WAR, or $6.8 million. Still a "money saver," but less valuable than if he were in the OF.

Now, we come to the big boy. Mark Teixeira. The Yankees just gave him an eight year, 180 million dollar contract, with an AAV of $22.5 million. That's going to be hard for Tex to match, from a standpoint like this. Let's see how it works out. Via the Marcels spreadsheet, Teixeira will be 28.2 runs over average this year. So:

28.2 - 12.5 = 15.7 + 6 (projected runs at 1B) = 21.7/10.5 + 2 = 4.07 WAR x 5 = 20.35. So, Tex's value projects to be $20.35 million this year. According to Cots, Mark will make a flat $20 million this year. So, the Yankees will, in fact, be paying Tex .35 million dollars less than he projects to be worth. It's a small number, but the Yankees are "saving" with Tex.

Lineup Run Scoring Projections

Using this system, I punched in a few different lineup possibilities for the Yankees to see how many runs they could average per game.

To get the appropriate OBP and SLG numbers, I used the Marcels projections for each player, which can be found on fangraphs.com.

First, let's see how the Yankees would fare if they went to bat with the team they currently have, which would probably mean a lineup of:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That lineup would score an average of 5.455 runs per game. That would be a big improvement over last year's mark of 4.870 runs per game; the total runs scored would be about 884.

But of course, these are the New York Yankees. There's very little chance that no moves will be made and the Yankees will take the field with this lineup in April. My current Free Agent Crush is Adam Dunn, so let's see how a lineup of the following would do:

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn LF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady RF
9. Cano 2B

That team gets an even bigger boost of runs, scoring 5.638 per, which would mean about 913 runs on the season. That's a lot of runs. That total would a) probably out score whatever defensive problems the Yankees may have with that lineup and b) be bolstered by a very good pitching staff.

There have been rumblings of a trade for Mike Cameron in the last few days. What would a lineup with Cameron, and no other acquisitions, look like? Probably this:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cameron CF

The above lineup would score 5.511 runs per game, 892 over the course of the season, which isn't as much as a Dunn inclusive lineup, but is better than a Gardner inclusive lineup.

In the words of Michael Keaton's version of Bruce Wayne in the first "Batman" film: "You wanna get nuts?! Let's get nuts!" and say that the Yankees sign Mark Teixeira.

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady LF
9. Cano 2B

This configuration would score 5.689 runs per game, a total of 921. Again, that could out do any defensive problems with Damon in center and would compliment what could be a dominant pitching staff.

"Let's start the insanity," as Jerry Seinfeld might say, and assume the Yankees sign Manny Ramirez. This would likely mean trading Xavier Nady or Hideki Matsui. While moving Nady might be easier, I think the front office would do everything it could to move Matsui instead, as he is older and more expensive. In fact, he could end up platooning with Nady, but either way, we're taking him out of this lineup because the program doesn't allow for platoons.

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Ramirez DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This would score 5.658 runs per game or 916 runs. However, this lineup could be tweaked. It is definitely possible to fit Nady AND Matsui into the lineup, while forcing Gardner out to a bench role. Let's see how that would play out. This would mean Damon in CF and Manny in left.

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Ramirez LF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady RF
9. Cano 2B

This permutation would average 5.713 runs per game, which would mean 925 runs in 162 games, which is the best result of any I've calculated so far. 925 runs is a lot. A whole lot.

So it would seem that from an offensive standpoint, signing Ramirez and benching Gardner while keeping Matsui and Nady in would yield the most runs for the Bronx Bombers in 2009. Of course, we'll just have to sit back and watch what Cash and his crew do in the next month or so.

CC and AJ

Well, I guess I've got a lot to talk about. Sorry for the prolonged absence, finals were no fun. But, I'm pretty sure I passed them all so, on to baseball.

Let me just say I'm absolutely thrilled with the two signings the Yankees have made. The years for both guys may be a little too long, but the fact that CC has an opt out clause actually makes it a decent contract. If CC does leave in three years, it'll be good for the Yankees because it will most likely mean that CC has pitched well enough to think he can get money somewhere else, which means the Yankees will likely have been a successful team. In the end, this could be a short term contract favorable for both teams. Also, Felix Hernandez will be a free agent at the end of the three years (he'll only be 26!) so if CC does leave, there could be a suitable replacement. Also at the end of those three years, the Yankees could have many young arms ready to take over.

By then, I think Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will have established themselves as front line starters and Andrew Brackman and Dellin (sp?) Betances will probably be ready to be called up to the Majors an contribute. So if CC does leave, the 2012 Yankee rotation could look like this:

Chamberlain
Hughes
Wang
Burnett
Betances/Brackman

If all goes well, that could be a very formidable rotation.

The AJ Burnett signing may be a little too long, but I can't argue too much with it. He's a power arm with a ton of upside to him. If he gets hurt, which I don't think he will (both Bill James and Marcels projections on fangraphs.com have him going 185+ innings), the Yankees have people who could fill in--Hughes, Aceves, Coke, Kennedy...

But what AJ gives the Yankees is the ability to miss bats. The Yankees have lacked power arms the past few years and it has hurt them a bit. With the additions of Sabathia and Burnett along with Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, the Yankees now have three starters who can consistently miss bats.

There will be more to come this week, including lineup run-scoring projections with Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, and Manny Ramirez. Thanks for reading.

-Matt

Adam Dunn

River Ave. Blues recently ran a piece about Adam Dunn. It was a great article and got me thinking, again, of what the Yankees would look like with Adam Dunn.

Obviously, I'd like to get Teixeira but with the Angels going hard after him, I think it's time for the Yankees to take a long hard look at Adam Dunn.

You can pencil him in for 40 homers and 100 walks a year. That type of production is absolutely great for the Yankees, a patient, power hitting team. Dunn goes deep into counts and takes balls deep as well. As an added bonus, he's a lefty, and we all know what power hitting lefties can do in Yankee Stadium.

Of course, slotting Dunn into the lineup is much easier said than done. How could the Yankees fit him in when there's already a bunch of OF/DH types? Dunn has a reputation for having a pretty bad glove so my gut reaction is to put him at DH. However, in digging a little deeper, I found that by PMR, Dunn was 0.68 runs above average...so essentially average. He had similar numbers by Baseball Prospectus' FRAR and FRAA systems. So the first lineup scenario could be Adam Dunn in left field, Johnny Damon in center field, and Xavier Nady in right field. The probable batting order with that defensive alignment would be:

1. Damon L CF
2. Jeter R SS
3. Dunn L LF
4. Rodriguez R 3B
5. Posada S C
6. Swisher S 1B
7. Matsui L DH
8. Nady R RF
9. Cano L 2B

That's a pretty kickass lineup if you ask me. There'd be three guys with great eyes in front of Rodriguez, a good left/right balance, and a relatively strong bottom of the order to set the table for the top.

But of course, the nay-sayers will say "nay" to having Adam Dunn play defense.If he were to be a DH, someone would have to get left out of the lineup each day. What could be done then? Well, this may be an unorthodox solution, but I would suggest that Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady essentially platoon at different positions versus different pitchers:

VS RHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

VS LHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This is no slight against Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, I just think they could both be better utilized playing in a platoon. This would help save Matsui's aging knees and would allow Nady to do the most damage. Matsui at first might be different, but he said he'd be willing to try and play first if it would help the team. While he's not the worst defensive OF out there, moving down on the defensive spectrum would probably let us see a jump in Matsui's defensive production.

As for Nady, he holds a career .854 OPS versus left handers and only a .770 OPS vs righties. Matsui OPS's .803 vs. lefties, which is a good mark and in the end, I'd be comfortable w/him playing every day, but to save his health, and utilize his career .870 OPS versus right handers, I'd let him play first against righties and rest against lefties.

Of course, there is always the possibility that if Dunn is signed, one of Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, or Hideki Matsui could be traded. The one most likely to be moved is probably Nady. He's coming off a career year, is the youngest, and has the smallest contract. If he were to be moved, Dunn could play right field, with Damon in left and Matsui DHing, with Brett Gardner in center:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn RF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That wouldn't be a bad lineup at all. The corner OF defense might be a little shaky, but the Yankees could probably live with that, due to increased offense.

So, out of all these lineups I've thrown out there, which one would be the best?
Probably the first one. Johnny Damon in CF might not look too great but he can get the job done. Trust me, the Yankees have made out with bad CF defense before. That lineup also includes both Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, while eliminating a potentially weak link offensively in Brett Gardner. That lineup arrangement could best make up for a lack of outfield defense.

Do I think the Yankees should go hard for Adam Dunn right away? Despite the fact that he'll probably come much cheaper, no. Mark Teixeira should still be the #1 goal for the Yankees offensively. However, the great deal for Nick Swisher and the Angels hot pursuit of Tex makes the prospect of him in Pinstripes somewhat bleak. If the Yankees miss out on Mark Teixeira, they should go full steam ahead for Adam Dunn.