Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Adam Dunn

River Ave. Blues recently ran a piece about Adam Dunn. It was a great article and got me thinking, again, of what the Yankees would look like with Adam Dunn.

Obviously, I'd like to get Teixeira but with the Angels going hard after him, I think it's time for the Yankees to take a long hard look at Adam Dunn.

You can pencil him in for 40 homers and 100 walks a year. That type of production is absolutely great for the Yankees, a patient, power hitting team. Dunn goes deep into counts and takes balls deep as well. As an added bonus, he's a lefty, and we all know what power hitting lefties can do in Yankee Stadium.

Of course, slotting Dunn into the lineup is much easier said than done. How could the Yankees fit him in when there's already a bunch of OF/DH types? Dunn has a reputation for having a pretty bad glove so my gut reaction is to put him at DH. However, in digging a little deeper, I found that by PMR, Dunn was 0.68 runs above average...so essentially average. He had similar numbers by Baseball Prospectus' FRAR and FRAA systems. So the first lineup scenario could be Adam Dunn in left field, Johnny Damon in center field, and Xavier Nady in right field. The probable batting order with that defensive alignment would be:

1. Damon L CF
2. Jeter R SS
3. Dunn L LF
4. Rodriguez R 3B
5. Posada S C
6. Swisher S 1B
7. Matsui L DH
8. Nady R RF
9. Cano L 2B

That's a pretty kickass lineup if you ask me. There'd be three guys with great eyes in front of Rodriguez, a good left/right balance, and a relatively strong bottom of the order to set the table for the top.

But of course, the nay-sayers will say "nay" to having Adam Dunn play defense.If he were to be a DH, someone would have to get left out of the lineup each day. What could be done then? Well, this may be an unorthodox solution, but I would suggest that Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady essentially platoon at different positions versus different pitchers:

VS RHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

VS LHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This is no slight against Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, I just think they could both be better utilized playing in a platoon. This would help save Matsui's aging knees and would allow Nady to do the most damage. Matsui at first might be different, but he said he'd be willing to try and play first if it would help the team. While he's not the worst defensive OF out there, moving down on the defensive spectrum would probably let us see a jump in Matsui's defensive production.

As for Nady, he holds a career .854 OPS versus left handers and only a .770 OPS vs righties. Matsui OPS's .803 vs. lefties, which is a good mark and in the end, I'd be comfortable w/him playing every day, but to save his health, and utilize his career .870 OPS versus right handers, I'd let him play first against righties and rest against lefties.

Of course, there is always the possibility that if Dunn is signed, one of Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, or Hideki Matsui could be traded. The one most likely to be moved is probably Nady. He's coming off a career year, is the youngest, and has the smallest contract. If he were to be moved, Dunn could play right field, with Damon in left and Matsui DHing, with Brett Gardner in center:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn RF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That wouldn't be a bad lineup at all. The corner OF defense might be a little shaky, but the Yankees could probably live with that, due to increased offense.

So, out of all these lineups I've thrown out there, which one would be the best?
Probably the first one. Johnny Damon in CF might not look too great but he can get the job done. Trust me, the Yankees have made out with bad CF defense before. That lineup also includes both Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, while eliminating a potentially weak link offensively in Brett Gardner. That lineup arrangement could best make up for a lack of outfield defense.

Do I think the Yankees should go hard for Adam Dunn right away? Despite the fact that he'll probably come much cheaper, no. Mark Teixeira should still be the #1 goal for the Yankees offensively. However, the great deal for Nick Swisher and the Angels hot pursuit of Tex makes the prospect of him in Pinstripes somewhat bleak. If the Yankees miss out on Mark Teixeira, they should go full steam ahead for Adam Dunn.

No comments: