CC and AJ

Well, I guess I've got a lot to talk about. Sorry for the prolonged absence, finals were no fun. But, I'm pretty sure I passed them all so, on to baseball.

Let me just say I'm absolutely thrilled with the two signings the Yankees have made. The years for both guys may be a little too long, but the fact that CC has an opt out clause actually makes it a decent contract. If CC does leave in three years, it'll be good for the Yankees because it will most likely mean that CC has pitched well enough to think he can get money somewhere else, which means the Yankees will likely have been a successful team. In the end, this could be a short term contract favorable for both teams. Also, Felix Hernandez will be a free agent at the end of the three years (he'll only be 26!) so if CC does leave, there could be a suitable replacement. Also at the end of those three years, the Yankees could have many young arms ready to take over.

By then, I think Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will have established themselves as front line starters and Andrew Brackman and Dellin (sp?) Betances will probably be ready to be called up to the Majors an contribute. So if CC does leave, the 2012 Yankee rotation could look like this:

Chamberlain
Hughes
Wang
Burnett
Betances/Brackman

If all goes well, that could be a very formidable rotation.

The AJ Burnett signing may be a little too long, but I can't argue too much with it. He's a power arm with a ton of upside to him. If he gets hurt, which I don't think he will (both Bill James and Marcels projections on fangraphs.com have him going 185+ innings), the Yankees have people who could fill in--Hughes, Aceves, Coke, Kennedy...

But what AJ gives the Yankees is the ability to miss bats. The Yankees have lacked power arms the past few years and it has hurt them a bit. With the additions of Sabathia and Burnett along with Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, the Yankees now have three starters who can consistently miss bats.

There will be more to come this week, including lineup run-scoring projections with Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, and Manny Ramirez. Thanks for reading.

-Matt

Adam Dunn

River Ave. Blues recently ran a piece about Adam Dunn. It was a great article and got me thinking, again, of what the Yankees would look like with Adam Dunn.

Obviously, I'd like to get Teixeira but with the Angels going hard after him, I think it's time for the Yankees to take a long hard look at Adam Dunn.

You can pencil him in for 40 homers and 100 walks a year. That type of production is absolutely great for the Yankees, a patient, power hitting team. Dunn goes deep into counts and takes balls deep as well. As an added bonus, he's a lefty, and we all know what power hitting lefties can do in Yankee Stadium.

Of course, slotting Dunn into the lineup is much easier said than done. How could the Yankees fit him in when there's already a bunch of OF/DH types? Dunn has a reputation for having a pretty bad glove so my gut reaction is to put him at DH. However, in digging a little deeper, I found that by PMR, Dunn was 0.68 runs above average...so essentially average. He had similar numbers by Baseball Prospectus' FRAR and FRAA systems. So the first lineup scenario could be Adam Dunn in left field, Johnny Damon in center field, and Xavier Nady in right field. The probable batting order with that defensive alignment would be:

1. Damon L CF
2. Jeter R SS
3. Dunn L LF
4. Rodriguez R 3B
5. Posada S C
6. Swisher S 1B
7. Matsui L DH
8. Nady R RF
9. Cano L 2B

That's a pretty kickass lineup if you ask me. There'd be three guys with great eyes in front of Rodriguez, a good left/right balance, and a relatively strong bottom of the order to set the table for the top.

But of course, the nay-sayers will say "nay" to having Adam Dunn play defense.If he were to be a DH, someone would have to get left out of the lineup each day. What could be done then? Well, this may be an unorthodox solution, but I would suggest that Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady essentially platoon at different positions versus different pitchers:

VS RHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

VS LHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This is no slight against Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, I just think they could both be better utilized playing in a platoon. This would help save Matsui's aging knees and would allow Nady to do the most damage. Matsui at first might be different, but he said he'd be willing to try and play first if it would help the team. While he's not the worst defensive OF out there, moving down on the defensive spectrum would probably let us see a jump in Matsui's defensive production.

As for Nady, he holds a career .854 OPS versus left handers and only a .770 OPS vs righties. Matsui OPS's .803 vs. lefties, which is a good mark and in the end, I'd be comfortable w/him playing every day, but to save his health, and utilize his career .870 OPS versus right handers, I'd let him play first against righties and rest against lefties.

Of course, there is always the possibility that if Dunn is signed, one of Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, or Hideki Matsui could be traded. The one most likely to be moved is probably Nady. He's coming off a career year, is the youngest, and has the smallest contract. If he were to be moved, Dunn could play right field, with Damon in left and Matsui DHing, with Brett Gardner in center:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn RF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That wouldn't be a bad lineup at all. The corner OF defense might be a little shaky, but the Yankees could probably live with that, due to increased offense.

So, out of all these lineups I've thrown out there, which one would be the best?
Probably the first one. Johnny Damon in CF might not look too great but he can get the job done. Trust me, the Yankees have made out with bad CF defense before. That lineup also includes both Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, while eliminating a potentially weak link offensively in Brett Gardner. That lineup arrangement could best make up for a lack of outfield defense.

Do I think the Yankees should go hard for Adam Dunn right away? Despite the fact that he'll probably come much cheaper, no. Mark Teixeira should still be the #1 goal for the Yankees offensively. However, the great deal for Nick Swisher and the Angels hot pursuit of Tex makes the prospect of him in Pinstripes somewhat bleak. If the Yankees miss out on Mark Teixeira, they should go full steam ahead for Adam Dunn.

The Pros and Cons of Letting Andy Walk

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Andy Pettitte is considering following Joe Torre and Don Mattingly to Los Angeles to pitch for the Dodgers if a deal with the Yankees cannot be worked out.

So, what are the pros and cons of letting Andy walk to Los Angeles?

PROS

The first pro would be a first round draft pick:

Update (7:15pm): Before anyone asks, Pettitte is a Type-A free agent, so if he did head to SoCal the Yanks would get the Dodgers first round pick (#17 overall, the second best pick they could possibly get) and a sandwich rounder.

That comes from River Ave. Blues. While a draft pick would likely not have an impact on the team for a few years, a draft pick that high is a luxury the Yankees usually don't have. Take into consideration that the Yankees will most likely get picks from Bobby Abreu and Ivan Rodriguez, not to mention compensation picks for not signing Gerritt Cole and Scott Bittle. Of course, the Yankees could also give away draft picks if they sign CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Ben Sheets, or Derek Lowe, but getting a first rounder and a sandwich pick for Pettitte would not be bad at all.

The next pro is the fact that the Yankees just may not need Andy. As harsh as that may sound, if the Yankees sign CC Sabathia and one of Ben Sheets (yes please), AJ Burnett (I wouldn't mind it one bit), or Derek Lowe (no thanks), Andy Pettitte is probably not necessary. Let's say that happens, the rotation would probably shake out as:

CC Sabathia
Chien-Ming Wang
Ben Sheets/AJ Burnett/Derek Lowe
Phil Hughes
Joba Chamberlain/other guys to keep his innings down (Aceves, Coke? Kennedy, etc)

Pettitte would not be necessary in that rotation. It would be more than fine without him.

The last pro is the fact that Pettitte is probably in decline. His second half last year was, well, bad. Very bad. Is that a sign of things to come? It could be, and all emotion tied to Andy Pettitte (he signed a business card at my mom's old store for me once and he and I share the same birthday), I really think Andy's best days--and even average days at that--are over.

Andy Pettitte could very well hurt the Yankees next year.

CONS

Of course, there's a tails for every heads....The cons of letting Andy Pettitte go are:

1. You know what you're getting out of Andy. It may not be great anymore, but you know he'll probably give you 180-200 of just about league average (or slightly better or worse) pitching. There have only been four seasons in which Andy has pitched less than 200 innings. The way the Yankees rotation could shape up--with youngsters Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain and their "restrictions"--they'll need someone who can eat innings. Pettitte is perfect for that.

2. A "worst-case-scenario" could occur in which all the free-agent dominoes fall away from the Yankees. In that case, the Yankees would need Pettitte. But of course, Andy could shock everyone and jump the gun and sign with the Dodgers. If that happens, fine, the Yankees could look elsewhere. But, what if the other guys choose other options than the Bronx, too? The Yankees rotation could look like this:
Chien-Ming Wang
Phil Hughes
Joba Chamberlain
??
??

Those question marks could be anyone. Phil Coke, Alfredo Aceves, Ian Kennedy, Kei Igawa....That is not good, no matter what the offense may do. Impossible as it may seem, the offense would probably have to score at least 900 runs to keep that pitching staff afloat.

So, what do to with Mr. Pettitte? I don't really have an answer, and I don't think Brian Cashman and the rest of the front office will until the first few free agent signings occur. What CC Sabathia decides will determine where the Yankees go in terms of pitchers and hitters, and I think Andy Pettitte is not in top priority for the Yankees, which I see as something like this:
1. Sabathia
2. Tex
3. Burnett/Sheets/Lowe
4. Centerfield
5. Andy Pettitte

What if...

The Yankees don't get anyone they want in terms of pitching via free agency? What if CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Ben Sheets all sign somewhere else that isn't the Bronx? What do the Yankees do then?

AVOID JAKE

I think the knee-jerk reaction of everyone will be that they should trade for Jake Peavy. This may sound reasonable considering Peavy's elite status and his relatively reasonable contract. However, there are a few things that I don't like about this (aside from Peavy's no trade clause):

1. He could very well be traded by that time.
2. I don't want to have to give up Phil Hughes and more (read: Austin Jackson) to get him. I know the Padres have said a deal could get done without Hughes, but that's only because the market for Peavy is almost non-existent at this point. If the Yankees were in panic mode, I'm sure the Padres would ask for Hughes in return.
3. If the Yankees didn't trade for the superior Johan Santana last year, why trade for Peavy this year?

Bottom line, I hope the Yankees would stay away from Jake Peavy.

BEEF UP THE LINEUP

The next step would be to bolster the offense, which would make sense and I think should be done regardless of acquiring one of the aforementioned free agent pitchers.

I'm still very much in favor of adding Mark Teixiera, which could allow for some roster flexibility; that move could allow the Yankees to trade either Xavier Nady or Hideki Matsui.

If the former is moved, then Hideki Matsui could stay at DH and Nick Swisher could slide into right, with Tex playing first. I believe this scenario could be plausible because Nady probably has more upside than Matsui right now. He's younger and is coming off a year in which he posted career highs in every offensive category. He slowed down a little bit with the Yankees, but I think he could still be a semi-valuable trade commodity. Maybe I'm just dreaming, but I think Nady and perhaps a B-level prospect or two could fetch Mike Cameron from the Brewers to be a one year stop-gap in center field. That could require some great work via Cashman, though, like in the Swisher deal.

If the latter, Matsui, is moved, I think a few things could happen.

a) Bobby Abreu could be brought back for a 1-2 year deal and would DH to keep his harmful defense on the bench.
b) Adam Dunn could be brought in to DH. His defense isn't as awful as people like to think it is, but I'd still prefer Nady out there.
c) Nady could move back to left and Swisher could play right, with Johnny Damon DH-ing.
d) Bring in Manny Ramirez to DH, Nady would stay in right, and Swisher would be the CF.

Of all these options, C is probably the most likely to happen if Matsui is traded. Option B is what I would want most, though. Inserting a 100 walk/40 HR guy (lefty, by the way) into the Yankees' offense would be a great shot in the arm. The market on Mr. Dunn also seems to be relatively quiet and I think the Yankees could ink him to a very reasonable deal.

I'd like option A, but as much as I love Big Bobby, I feel like he's in a decline. If that were to happen, it would have to be a short term deal, with no more than two guaranteed years.

Option D would be nice, too, since Manny is one of the best right-handed hitters ever. However, I don't think it's very likely. As good as Manny may be, and as much as I'd love to see him in pinstripes, I don't think the Yankees would give him the length in a contract he wanted.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ROTATION?

Here, my friends, is the crux of the problem. If all of these guys fall through, who will be the pitchers for the Yankees come opening day? The prospect of this is made harder to swallow, given Mike Mussina's retirement (more on him at a later date). While I don't think he would've touched what he did in 2008, he'd probably still be serviceable in the rotation.

If those guys aren't going to be in Yankee unis come spring, then Andy Pettitte will surely be.

I think the innings restriction on Joba will still be in effect regardless of free agent moves, but I think w/o those guys, the Yankees will toss Phil Hughes back into the Major League fire. Chien Ming Wang will be around, too, so that's four guys. The Yankees could use Alfredo Aceves as a starter as well, which I would like, along with Phil Coke getting a spot start every so often and probably Ian Kennedy being tried out again (for probably the last time). So what would a "nightmare" rotation for the Yankees look like? Probably something like this:

Wang
Pettitte
Hughes
Joba
Aceves/Coke/Kennedy/lots of guys.

Of course, there's always the possibility of signing another free-agent pitcher who isn't among the "Big Four." Who are some of those possibilities?

Oliver Perez is a possibility. He's young and has shown incredible flashes of brilliance (one of which was on my birthday in 2007. I was there, great game by Ollie) but has also shown more flashes of mediocrity. The Yankees would probably stay away from someone as wild and inconsistent and Ollie.

Brad Penny is another one the Yankees could go for. He's a good pitcher who the market has been essentially silent on. He's 31 like Burnett but also carries the "injury" tag like AJ. He's a long shot that could work out, but I think he would be avoided.

The Yankees could take a flier on Mark Prior but that is also unlikely.

It doesn't seem like there are any FA pitchers out there the Yankees would sign if they missed out on the "Big Four." If that happens, I see the Yankees devoting their money to offense and attempting to slug their way to a playoff berth.

A (Tenative) Lineup for 2009

Hey, everybody. It's been a while since I posted something, so here goes.

The Replacement Level Yankee Weblog recently ran a post about what the Yankees would look like if the season started today. This means the only move made would be Nick Swisher's acquisition. I don't think that this will be the only move the Yankees make, but if it were, here is how I would arrange the lineup if I were G.I. Joe.

1. Johnny Damon, LF--I guess this one's a no-brainer. Damon's been the leadoff hitter for years now and has done fine, no need to rock the boat. However, Derek Jeter would be a fine leadoff hitter as well, IMO.

2. Derek Jeter, SS--Just like Damon, this is another no brainer. Jeter's always been the two hitter so no real reason to move him. Hopefully, though, he has a bit of a rebound year, especially in terms of power. He could also bat leadoff and Damon could bat second. Either order of the two would be fine.

3. Nick Swisher, 1B--Swisher, like Bobby Abreu but better, has a great batting eye and some pop as well. With him in the three hole, that'd be three guys in a row with good batting eyes to get on base for A-Rod. Swisher has a great combination of pop and patience that a three hitter needs.

4. Alex Rodgriguez, 3B--Does this really need an explanation?

5. Jorge Posada, C--Posada's bat was probably the biggest offensive loss for the Yankees in 2008. Despite his crazy-good 2007, I think we all undervalued how much Posada added to the offense and his presence should help the Yankees offense. I like him for the five hole to bring in A-Rod and whatever he leaves on the bases. Hideki Matsui or Robinson Cano could also be candidates for the five spot. I have no real argument against Matsui, I just prefer Posada there. As for Cano, I think his patience isn't developed enough to bat this high in the order. He makes good contact (had a great LD% this year) and has some pop, but I still want his not-so-high OBP lower in the order.

6. Hideki Matsui, DH--He's a good fit for the six spot. Decent average, decent OBP, decent power. If There's a right handed pitcher, it's two lefties back to back. If it's a left handed pitcher, there's still a RH/LH balance between the five/six spots.

7. Xavier Nady, RF--I really do think last year's hot start--the first half, and his first week with the Yankees--was an incredible fluke. I don't think he's gonna suck this year, but he definitely won't be great. The seven spot seems right for him, plus, it keeps a left/right balance that I like to have. Cano could also bat here if Posada and Matsui are flipped, with Nady taking the eight spot.

8. Robinson Cano, 2B--I think this spot, or the seven spot, fits Cano best until he gets some patience. He was a victim of bad luck last year, but his lack of patience still puts him in a lower spot in the order.

9. Brett Gardner, CF--While this has the potential to put three left handers in a row, there's really no where else to bat Gardner. He showed that he was semi-overmatched at the ML level to begin with--despite a great showing during his second cup of coffee--but still showed a decent eye. A good OBP here at the bottom of the order (I see anywhere from .340-.360 for Gardner) could put some runners on base for the top of the order.

So, in review:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

Of course, this can, and probably will, change. But, for now, just bear with me, k?

Nick Swisher!

Well the Yankees made their first big move of the offseason (unless we want to count Marte's deal as "big," but more on that later) in trading Wilson Betemit and Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez for Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.

I, for one, am very excited for this move. The prospects of getting Swisher had been floating around for the last few weeks, but now it has come to fruition.

Now, I understand Swisher only hit .219 last year, but he had a .333 on base percentage. While standing alone a .333 OBP is bad, considering it was over 100 points higher than his batting average, it's pretty good. Swisher also led the league in pitches per plate appearance and since 2006, he is ninth in walks behind some great names, such as Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, and David Ortiz among others.

So, in Swisher, the Yankees get a guy who can play a few different positions who can also work the count and get on base, which is exactly what the Yankees need.

My only concern is what this does for the Yankees and the other Tex. This eliminates a lot of leverage Scott Boras and his client may've had, but it could also eliminate their desire to sign with the Yankees.

I'd obviously love to get Tex, but getting Swisher is a cheaper alternative. He gets on base at a great rate and definitely has some pop, with over 20 homers each full season he's had in the majors, and a .451 slugging percentage for his career.

More importantly, I think this move could be geared toward the future. Both aging outfielders Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui will come off the books next year, as will Xavier Nady. Swisher could be set up as a key piece in the outfield in 2010 and after along with (hopefully) Austin Jackson, and someone else in left field. I don't see Xavier Nady being with the team after his contract is up.

Who could that other guy be? Perhaps Matt Holliday, who will essentially have an American League try out this year and the Yankees will get to think long and hard about signing him (he'll probably be more expensive than Tex if he has a good year).

I am very excited about getting Nick Swisher and wish to welcome him to the New York Yankees. I hope you are all as excited as I am.

GO YANKEES IN 2009!

All MLB Team

Here is my ALL MLB TEAM (with a backup for each position)

C--Joe Mauer, MIN, Brian McCann, ATL
1B--Albert Pujols, StL; Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B--Dustin Pedroia, BOS; Chase Utley, PHI
3B--Alex Rodriguez, NYY; David Wright, NYM
SS--Hanley Ramirez, FLA; Jose Reyes, NYM
OF--Carlos Quinten, CWS; Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF--Manny Ramirez, BOS/LAD; Ryan Ludwick, StL
OF--Matt Holliday, COL; Carlos Lee, HOU

SP--Tim Lincecum, SFG
SP--Johan Santana, NYM
SP--Cole Hamels, PHI
SP--Roy Halladay, TOR
SP--Cliff Lee, CLE
CP--Mariano Rivera, NYY; Brad Lidge, PHI