I've had some of my polls up for a long time, and they're due to expire tomorrow so I thought I'd write up the results.
The first question: Who should start in CF--Brett, Melky, or someone else? The results from your responses were pretty clear: start Brett! He got 33 votes, good for 73% of the vote. It seems as if General Joe has listened, naming Gardner the starting center fielder.
The next, and most important question, was on how far the Yankees would go in 2009. 60% of you have dreams of a 27th World Championship for the Bronx Bombers this year. I hope you're all right. 18% thought a World Series berth was in the cards while 7%, 8 votes, thought the Yankees would miss the playoffs altogether. Somewhat surprisingly, this got more votes than the Yankees exiting after the ALDS, which got only 4 votes, 3%.
Next was the question of who would have a better year: Tex or A-Rod? In the beginning of this question's existence, A-Rod was winning by a landslide. However, with all the injury news, it started to even out a bit and ended up 57-32 (64%-35%) in A-Rod's favor. Despite those results, it seems apparent that Teixeira will have the better season.
Last but not least is the pitching version of the previous question: who'll have a better year: CC or A.J.? This was the most lopsided question, with CC taking 86% of the vote.
So, we'll re-visit this post later in the year to see how close we all were on our "predictions." Have a good one, everybody and GO HUSKIES!
Showing posts with label Alex Rodriguez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Rodriguez. Show all posts
Monday, March 30, 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The Lineup
Both Pete Abraham and River Avenue Blues touched on the lineup for the upcoming season, so I thought I'd throw my two cents in.
According to Mr. Abraham, Girardi will "likely...hit Tex third and A-Rod fourth." This is something I disagree with. If I'm General Girardi, I hit Rodriguez third and Tex fourth. For starters, Rodriguez is the better hitter and should get more plate appearances and putting him third gives him about 20 more PAs over the course of the season. Second, while I'm not a huge believe in "protection" or whatever, I believe that batting Teixeira behind Rodriguez would be smarter and more effective than batting Matsui behind Rodriguez, as would probably be the case if A-Rod batted cleanup.
Not to pick on Joe, I've got a disagreement with RAB, as well. The author of the post, Joe, suggests batting Robinson Cano fifth so the top five would look the same regardless of who had an off day, be it Posada, Swisher, Nady, or Matsui. Personally, I'm not a fan of Cano batting third because of his lack of patience. I just don't think a guy who's basically making a hit or making an out when he gets to the plate should be batting fifth, regardless of his power potential.
Joe also touches on lineup splits and here's my thought on those. I don't really think Nady's going to continue his hot hitting ways against right handers, so I'd like him to play primarily against left handers. And though Matsui's platoon splits aren't as pronounced as Nady's, for his health's sake, I'd prefer him to play mostly against righties. I'm the president of Team Swisher so I obviously want him playing full time, and I believe he will be the full time starter in right. So, how would I put together the lineup if I'm Joe Girardi? Here:
v. RHP:
1. Johnny Damon LF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Alex Rodriguez 3B
4. Mark Teixeira 1B
5. Hideki Matsui DH
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Nick Swisher RF
8. Robinson Cano 2B
9. Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner CF
v. LHP:
1. Damon DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Rodriguez 3B
4. Teixeira 1B
5. Nady LF
6. Posada C
7. Swisher RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera/Gardner CF
The v. LHP lineup is somewhat different, but I have my reasons. It gives Hideki Matsui a full day off and Johnny Damon a half day off, to rest his knees and shoulder. Nady's not the strongest fielder in all the world, but he has a 2.1 UZR/150 in left over his career. He's also a great hitter against lefties, so it gives him a chance to get some starts.
Obviously, this could all change very quickly depending on injuries and early season performances, but hopefully Joe Girardi is reading this and gets a bright idea or two from it. That's all for today. Thanks for reading!
According to Mr. Abraham, Girardi will "likely...hit Tex third and A-Rod fourth." This is something I disagree with. If I'm General Girardi, I hit Rodriguez third and Tex fourth. For starters, Rodriguez is the better hitter and should get more plate appearances and putting him third gives him about 20 more PAs over the course of the season. Second, while I'm not a huge believe in "protection" or whatever, I believe that batting Teixeira behind Rodriguez would be smarter and more effective than batting Matsui behind Rodriguez, as would probably be the case if A-Rod batted cleanup.
Not to pick on Joe, I've got a disagreement with RAB, as well. The author of the post, Joe, suggests batting Robinson Cano fifth so the top five would look the same regardless of who had an off day, be it Posada, Swisher, Nady, or Matsui. Personally, I'm not a fan of Cano batting third because of his lack of patience. I just don't think a guy who's basically making a hit or making an out when he gets to the plate should be batting fifth, regardless of his power potential.
Joe also touches on lineup splits and here's my thought on those. I don't really think Nady's going to continue his hot hitting ways against right handers, so I'd like him to play primarily against left handers. And though Matsui's platoon splits aren't as pronounced as Nady's, for his health's sake, I'd prefer him to play mostly against righties. I'm the president of Team Swisher so I obviously want him playing full time, and I believe he will be the full time starter in right. So, how would I put together the lineup if I'm Joe Girardi? Here:
v. RHP:
1. Johnny Damon LF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Alex Rodriguez 3B
4. Mark Teixeira 1B
5. Hideki Matsui DH
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Nick Swisher RF
8. Robinson Cano 2B
9. Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner CF
v. LHP:
1. Damon DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Rodriguez 3B
4. Teixeira 1B
5. Nady LF
6. Posada C
7. Swisher RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera/Gardner CF
The v. LHP lineup is somewhat different, but I have my reasons. It gives Hideki Matsui a full day off and Johnny Damon a half day off, to rest his knees and shoulder. Nady's not the strongest fielder in all the world, but he has a 2.1 UZR/150 in left over his career. He's also a great hitter against lefties, so it gives him a chance to get some starts.
Obviously, this could all change very quickly depending on injuries and early season performances, but hopefully Joe Girardi is reading this and gets a bright idea or two from it. That's all for today. Thanks for reading!
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Much Ado About Nothing
Sorry for the lack of posts lately. School and life are busy and there really isn't much baseball news going on.
There's the A-Rod press conference today, but I'll be in class when it starts (Women in 20th Century Literature) and probably when it ends (Spanish and Latin American Film). Honestly, I couldn't care less about the whole damn thing and I hope this is the end of the issue...but I know better. Maybe this will end it for Spring Training but as soon as the season starts, we'll hear the "A-Roid" chants on the road and the boos at home and the whole can of worms will be re-opened. My first reaction to everything was not anger, but rather disappointment. At this point, though, I'm way past caring about the PED issue in baseball. I am, however, pissed off that the NFL essentially gets a free pass on the same issue, but whatever.
In legit baseball news, there are some things I'll touch on.
1. This is ridiculous. If anything like this happens, the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Braves--and any team that had to give up a draft pick--should go absolutely nuts on MLB.
2. Ken Griffey appears to be headed to the Braves. This is good news for Yankee fans (especially me) because it means the Nady and/or Swisher to the Braves talks will die. Keeping both on the roster provides depth and insurance. We all know how big my man crush on Nick Swisher is; hell, I named one of my fantasy teams "Swisher's Biggest Fan."
3. After watching bits and pieces of that Baseball Tonight special on Sunday night, I have made it my goal to watch as little BBTN as possible this season. This is for a few reasons: a) I first tuned in when they were talking about the Rays. They listed Pat Burrell as a new acquisition (I think this is a great move) and they listed his BA (.250) and HR (33) totals next to his name. When will ESPN, the "Worldwide Leader in Sports" catch up with the times and stop using BA/HR/RBI as their "Holy Trinity?" Ugh. b) John Kruk and Buck Showalter both agreed that Joba Chamberlain should be in the bullpen, citing a few tired arguments. The first, by Kruk, was that Mariano Rivera won't pitch forever and the Yankees will need someone to close when he is gone. This just shows that the people at ESPN do absolutely no research. At all. There is someone being groomed for the future closer's job. His name is Mark Melancon. He will put an end to this stupid Joba to the bullpen debate. The second "argument," agreed upon by both Showalter and Kruk, is that Chamberlain can pitch in 60-70 games out of the bullpen rather than 25-30 as a starter, and thus "impact more games." This is dumb. If Chamberlain's a reliever, he'll pitch 1-2 innings a game. That way, he's only impacting 1/9 to 2/9 of a ball game. As a starter, he's impacting 5/9 to 7/9 of the game. Which is more valuable? If you say it's the former, that's like saying 2 quarters are worth more than 1 dollar because there's 2 of them, as opposed to 1 of the dollar. Anyway, it's just clear that the guys at ESPN have some work to do. Baseball Tonight is good for one thing--showing us highlights and getting interviews. In the words of Austin Powers, analysis is not their bag, baby.
3. In the Joba vein, there's this article by Joel Sherman in the New York Post. In honor of the fallen Fire Joe Morgan, I'm going to try and shred this post.
No it isn't. 200 innings is usually more valuable than 70. Hell, an average 150 is about the same as a great 80. For a good summary of that article check here.
As someone in the comments pointed out, Moyer (39.7 Pitcher VORP) was more valuable than Lidge (26.5 VORP). Jamie Moyer had a slightly above average season in 2008 and was more valuable than the best reliever in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Moyer was worth 2.6 wins above a replacement player and Lidge was worth 2.2 WAR. So, 196.1 above average innings was worth more than 69.1 godly innings.
As for Boston having to make the choice between Beckett and Papelbon, they'd pick Beckett every time. I'm sure Mr. Sherman meant to say "slam dunk" instead of "lay up" so I'll correct him. It is a slam dunk, dude. Beckett is worth more to the Red Sox than Papelbon.
I'd say most of them are game-on-the-line high leverage situations because by the time closers come in, the game is already determined. For this, I'm gonna head to the WPA Calculator. By typing in the situation that would happen at the beginning of the game--no outs, none on, top of the first, visiting team batting and the scored tied--we see that the home team wins 54% of the time, so basically a toss up. Now, I'm gonna put a classic save situation in: top of the ninth, the home team up by one, no one on, no one out. In that situation, the home team wins 86% of the time. As great as Mo is, when he comes in to the game, it's usually already determined.
As for the 60/30 thing, see above. 30 games of even average to slightly above average pitching is better than 60 games of light's out pitching. Hopefully this year, Joba absolutely dominates and shows all the people who think he should be in the bullpen where they can stick it. You don't waste a great talent like Chamberlain in the bullpen. Cashman and Co. have it right.
There's the A-Rod press conference today, but I'll be in class when it starts (Women in 20th Century Literature) and probably when it ends (Spanish and Latin American Film). Honestly, I couldn't care less about the whole damn thing and I hope this is the end of the issue...but I know better. Maybe this will end it for Spring Training but as soon as the season starts, we'll hear the "A-Roid" chants on the road and the boos at home and the whole can of worms will be re-opened. My first reaction to everything was not anger, but rather disappointment. At this point, though, I'm way past caring about the PED issue in baseball. I am, however, pissed off that the NFL essentially gets a free pass on the same issue, but whatever.
In legit baseball news, there are some things I'll touch on.
1. This is ridiculous. If anything like this happens, the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Braves--and any team that had to give up a draft pick--should go absolutely nuts on MLB.
2. Ken Griffey appears to be headed to the Braves. This is good news for Yankee fans (especially me) because it means the Nady and/or Swisher to the Braves talks will die. Keeping both on the roster provides depth and insurance. We all know how big my man crush on Nick Swisher is; hell, I named one of my fantasy teams "Swisher's Biggest Fan."
3. After watching bits and pieces of that Baseball Tonight special on Sunday night, I have made it my goal to watch as little BBTN as possible this season. This is for a few reasons: a) I first tuned in when they were talking about the Rays. They listed Pat Burrell as a new acquisition (I think this is a great move) and they listed his BA (.250) and HR (33) totals next to his name. When will ESPN, the "Worldwide Leader in Sports" catch up with the times and stop using BA/HR/RBI as their "Holy Trinity?" Ugh. b) John Kruk and Buck Showalter both agreed that Joba Chamberlain should be in the bullpen, citing a few tired arguments. The first, by Kruk, was that Mariano Rivera won't pitch forever and the Yankees will need someone to close when he is gone. This just shows that the people at ESPN do absolutely no research. At all. There is someone being groomed for the future closer's job. His name is Mark Melancon. He will put an end to this stupid Joba to the bullpen debate. The second "argument," agreed upon by both Showalter and Kruk, is that Chamberlain can pitch in 60-70 games out of the bullpen rather than 25-30 as a starter, and thus "impact more games." This is dumb. If Chamberlain's a reliever, he'll pitch 1-2 innings a game. That way, he's only impacting 1/9 to 2/9 of a ball game. As a starter, he's impacting 5/9 to 7/9 of the game. Which is more valuable? If you say it's the former, that's like saying 2 quarters are worth more than 1 dollar because there's 2 of them, as opposed to 1 of the dollar. Anyway, it's just clear that the guys at ESPN have some work to do. Baseball Tonight is good for one thing--showing us highlights and getting interviews. In the words of Austin Powers, analysis is not their bag, baby.
3. In the Joba vein, there's this article by Joel Sherman in the New York Post. In honor of the fallen Fire Joe Morgan, I'm going to try and shred this post.
2. When it comes to Chamberlain's long-term role a question that is often asked is what is more valuable: 70 innings or 200 innings? I think that is a misleading talking point by those who want Chamberlain to be a starter.
No it isn't. 200 innings is usually more valuable than 70. Hell, an average 150 is about the same as a great 80. For a good summary of that article check here.
Now back to the 70/200 matter. You should really ask who is pitching the 70 and who is pitching the 200? For the champion Phillies, Cole Hamels' 227.3 innings were probably more valuable than Brad Lidge's 69.3, but were Jamie Moyers' 196.3. If you told the Red Sox, they could play this season with either Jonathan Papelbon or Josh Beckett, which do you think they would take? It is not a layup.
As someone in the comments pointed out, Moyer (39.7 Pitcher VORP) was more valuable than Lidge (26.5 VORP). Jamie Moyer had a slightly above average season in 2008 and was more valuable than the best reliever in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Moyer was worth 2.6 wins above a replacement player and Lidge was worth 2.2 WAR. So, 196.1 above average innings was worth more than 69.1 godly innings.
As for Boston having to make the choice between Beckett and Papelbon, they'd pick Beckett every time. I'm sure Mr. Sherman meant to say "slam dunk" instead of "lay up" so I'll correct him. It is a slam dunk, dude. Beckett is worth more to the Red Sox than Papelbon.
In those 200-or-so innings for a starter how many would you define as game-on-the-line high leverage? With someone such as Lidge or Papelbon or Rivera, just about every pitch they throw in a season is in a game-deciding moment. That is why the 70/200 thing doesn't work for me. I can just as easily say would you rather have a pitcher impact 60 games (like a reliever) or 30 games (like a starter).
I'd say most of them are game-on-the-line high leverage situations because by the time closers come in, the game is already determined. For this, I'm gonna head to the WPA Calculator. By typing in the situation that would happen at the beginning of the game--no outs, none on, top of the first, visiting team batting and the scored tied--we see that the home team wins 54% of the time, so basically a toss up. Now, I'm gonna put a classic save situation in: top of the ninth, the home team up by one, no one on, no one out. In that situation, the home team wins 86% of the time. As great as Mo is, when he comes in to the game, it's usually already determined.
As for the 60/30 thing, see above. 30 games of even average to slightly above average pitching is better than 60 games of light's out pitching. Hopefully this year, Joba absolutely dominates and shows all the people who think he should be in the bullpen where they can stick it. You don't waste a great talent like Chamberlain in the bullpen. Cashman and Co. have it right.
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