What's a Player Worth?

With the Yankees recent splurge on free agents and trades, there are a lot of people talking about who's overpaid, who's underpaid, responsible spending, irresponsible spending, and the like. For that reason, I'd like to take a look at the Yankees two acquisitions on the offensive side of things: Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira.

To do this, I'll be turning their projected runs above average using Marcels projections for hitters and their CHONE Defensive Projections.

My method will be the same as found on my friend Mike's blog Fire Jim Leyland. For an example of how these calculations work, go to this post. An example:

Lets run through an example. We'll use Curtis Granderson. His RAA in my table comes out at +15.7. His CHONE defensive projection has him at +13 runs. That makes him now at +28.7 runs above average. He gets another 2.5 run boost for being a Centerfielder, which puts his RAA at 31.2. Divide that by 10.5 and you get 2.97 Wins Above Average. Add in another 2, and he becomes 4.97 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. That equates out to being $24.85 million. His 2009 salary is currently just $3.5 million, a difference of $21.35 million -- quite the bargain.

10.5 is roughly the amount of runs that equal one win and the two is used because a replacement player is two runs worse than an average player. To get the dollar amount, you multiply by five (millions of dollars), which is the approximate value of a win The positional adjustments Mike talks about are as follows:

Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second Base/Third Base/Centerfield: +2.5 runs
Left Field/Right Field: -7.5 runs
First Base: -7.5 runs
DH: -17.5 runs

Let's run through the numbers for Mr. Swisher first. On the Marcels spread sheet, we can find that he will be worth 5.8 runs over average. If we want to project Swisher as a corner outfielder, we find his defensive projection on the CHONE site and find that in the corners, Swisher is projected to be a +5 defender. Thus, our equation becomes:

5.8 (runs over average)-7.5 (postiion adjustment) = -1.7+5 (projected defense) = 3.3/10.5 +2 = 2.31 Wins over Replacement. So, as a corner outfielder, Nick Swisher projects to be worth 2.31 Wins over Replacement Player. Multiply that by five to get the dollar amount Swisher's 2008 performance projects to be and you get: $11.55 million dollars. A quick trip over to Cot's MLB Contracts and we find that Nick Swisher will make $5.3 million in 2009. So if Nick Swisher plays to his projection as a corner outfielder, the Yankees are saving $6.25 million on him.

If you want to make Swisher the CF, switch the positional adjustment (+2.5) and the defensive projection (-2) and he comes out at 2.50 wins over replacement, but only because CFs are harder to replace than corner OFs. Still, his dollar value there would be $12.5 mil, a money saver for the Yankees.

Projecting Swisher at first is more or less a moot point because of Tex, but for shits and giggles, he'd be 1.36 WAR, or $6.8 million. Still a "money saver," but less valuable than if he were in the OF.

Now, we come to the big boy. Mark Teixeira. The Yankees just gave him an eight year, 180 million dollar contract, with an AAV of $22.5 million. That's going to be hard for Tex to match, from a standpoint like this. Let's see how it works out. Via the Marcels spreadsheet, Teixeira will be 28.2 runs over average this year. So:

28.2 - 12.5 = 15.7 + 6 (projected runs at 1B) = 21.7/10.5 + 2 = 4.07 WAR x 5 = 20.35. So, Tex's value projects to be $20.35 million this year. According to Cots, Mark will make a flat $20 million this year. So, the Yankees will, in fact, be paying Tex .35 million dollars less than he projects to be worth. It's a small number, but the Yankees are "saving" with Tex.

Lineup Run Scoring Projections

Using this system, I punched in a few different lineup possibilities for the Yankees to see how many runs they could average per game.

To get the appropriate OBP and SLG numbers, I used the Marcels projections for each player, which can be found on fangraphs.com.

First, let's see how the Yankees would fare if they went to bat with the team they currently have, which would probably mean a lineup of:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That lineup would score an average of 5.455 runs per game. That would be a big improvement over last year's mark of 4.870 runs per game; the total runs scored would be about 884.

But of course, these are the New York Yankees. There's very little chance that no moves will be made and the Yankees will take the field with this lineup in April. My current Free Agent Crush is Adam Dunn, so let's see how a lineup of the following would do:

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn LF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady RF
9. Cano 2B

That team gets an even bigger boost of runs, scoring 5.638 per, which would mean about 913 runs on the season. That's a lot of runs. That total would a) probably out score whatever defensive problems the Yankees may have with that lineup and b) be bolstered by a very good pitching staff.

There have been rumblings of a trade for Mike Cameron in the last few days. What would a lineup with Cameron, and no other acquisitions, look like? Probably this:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cameron CF

The above lineup would score 5.511 runs per game, 892 over the course of the season, which isn't as much as a Dunn inclusive lineup, but is better than a Gardner inclusive lineup.

In the words of Michael Keaton's version of Bruce Wayne in the first "Batman" film: "You wanna get nuts?! Let's get nuts!" and say that the Yankees sign Mark Teixeira.

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady LF
9. Cano 2B

This configuration would score 5.689 runs per game, a total of 921. Again, that could out do any defensive problems with Damon in center and would compliment what could be a dominant pitching staff.

"Let's start the insanity," as Jerry Seinfeld might say, and assume the Yankees sign Manny Ramirez. This would likely mean trading Xavier Nady or Hideki Matsui. While moving Nady might be easier, I think the front office would do everything it could to move Matsui instead, as he is older and more expensive. In fact, he could end up platooning with Nady, but either way, we're taking him out of this lineup because the program doesn't allow for platoons.

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Ramirez DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This would score 5.658 runs per game or 916 runs. However, this lineup could be tweaked. It is definitely possible to fit Nady AND Matsui into the lineup, while forcing Gardner out to a bench role. Let's see how that would play out. This would mean Damon in CF and Manny in left.

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Ramirez LF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady RF
9. Cano 2B

This permutation would average 5.713 runs per game, which would mean 925 runs in 162 games, which is the best result of any I've calculated so far. 925 runs is a lot. A whole lot.

So it would seem that from an offensive standpoint, signing Ramirez and benching Gardner while keeping Matsui and Nady in would yield the most runs for the Bronx Bombers in 2009. Of course, we'll just have to sit back and watch what Cash and his crew do in the next month or so.

CC and AJ

Well, I guess I've got a lot to talk about. Sorry for the prolonged absence, finals were no fun. But, I'm pretty sure I passed them all so, on to baseball.

Let me just say I'm absolutely thrilled with the two signings the Yankees have made. The years for both guys may be a little too long, but the fact that CC has an opt out clause actually makes it a decent contract. If CC does leave in three years, it'll be good for the Yankees because it will most likely mean that CC has pitched well enough to think he can get money somewhere else, which means the Yankees will likely have been a successful team. In the end, this could be a short term contract favorable for both teams. Also, Felix Hernandez will be a free agent at the end of the three years (he'll only be 26!) so if CC does leave, there could be a suitable replacement. Also at the end of those three years, the Yankees could have many young arms ready to take over.

By then, I think Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will have established themselves as front line starters and Andrew Brackman and Dellin (sp?) Betances will probably be ready to be called up to the Majors an contribute. So if CC does leave, the 2012 Yankee rotation could look like this:

Chamberlain
Hughes
Wang
Burnett
Betances/Brackman

If all goes well, that could be a very formidable rotation.

The AJ Burnett signing may be a little too long, but I can't argue too much with it. He's a power arm with a ton of upside to him. If he gets hurt, which I don't think he will (both Bill James and Marcels projections on fangraphs.com have him going 185+ innings), the Yankees have people who could fill in--Hughes, Aceves, Coke, Kennedy...

But what AJ gives the Yankees is the ability to miss bats. The Yankees have lacked power arms the past few years and it has hurt them a bit. With the additions of Sabathia and Burnett along with Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, the Yankees now have three starters who can consistently miss bats.

There will be more to come this week, including lineup run-scoring projections with Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, and Manny Ramirez. Thanks for reading.

-Matt

Adam Dunn

River Ave. Blues recently ran a piece about Adam Dunn. It was a great article and got me thinking, again, of what the Yankees would look like with Adam Dunn.

Obviously, I'd like to get Teixeira but with the Angels going hard after him, I think it's time for the Yankees to take a long hard look at Adam Dunn.

You can pencil him in for 40 homers and 100 walks a year. That type of production is absolutely great for the Yankees, a patient, power hitting team. Dunn goes deep into counts and takes balls deep as well. As an added bonus, he's a lefty, and we all know what power hitting lefties can do in Yankee Stadium.

Of course, slotting Dunn into the lineup is much easier said than done. How could the Yankees fit him in when there's already a bunch of OF/DH types? Dunn has a reputation for having a pretty bad glove so my gut reaction is to put him at DH. However, in digging a little deeper, I found that by PMR, Dunn was 0.68 runs above average...so essentially average. He had similar numbers by Baseball Prospectus' FRAR and FRAA systems. So the first lineup scenario could be Adam Dunn in left field, Johnny Damon in center field, and Xavier Nady in right field. The probable batting order with that defensive alignment would be:

1. Damon L CF
2. Jeter R SS
3. Dunn L LF
4. Rodriguez R 3B
5. Posada S C
6. Swisher S 1B
7. Matsui L DH
8. Nady R RF
9. Cano L 2B

That's a pretty kickass lineup if you ask me. There'd be three guys with great eyes in front of Rodriguez, a good left/right balance, and a relatively strong bottom of the order to set the table for the top.

But of course, the nay-sayers will say "nay" to having Adam Dunn play defense.If he were to be a DH, someone would have to get left out of the lineup each day. What could be done then? Well, this may be an unorthodox solution, but I would suggest that Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady essentially platoon at different positions versus different pitchers:

VS RHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

VS LHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This is no slight against Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, I just think they could both be better utilized playing in a platoon. This would help save Matsui's aging knees and would allow Nady to do the most damage. Matsui at first might be different, but he said he'd be willing to try and play first if it would help the team. While he's not the worst defensive OF out there, moving down on the defensive spectrum would probably let us see a jump in Matsui's defensive production.

As for Nady, he holds a career .854 OPS versus left handers and only a .770 OPS vs righties. Matsui OPS's .803 vs. lefties, which is a good mark and in the end, I'd be comfortable w/him playing every day, but to save his health, and utilize his career .870 OPS versus right handers, I'd let him play first against righties and rest against lefties.

Of course, there is always the possibility that if Dunn is signed, one of Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, or Hideki Matsui could be traded. The one most likely to be moved is probably Nady. He's coming off a career year, is the youngest, and has the smallest contract. If he were to be moved, Dunn could play right field, with Damon in left and Matsui DHing, with Brett Gardner in center:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn RF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That wouldn't be a bad lineup at all. The corner OF defense might be a little shaky, but the Yankees could probably live with that, due to increased offense.

So, out of all these lineups I've thrown out there, which one would be the best?
Probably the first one. Johnny Damon in CF might not look too great but he can get the job done. Trust me, the Yankees have made out with bad CF defense before. That lineup also includes both Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, while eliminating a potentially weak link offensively in Brett Gardner. That lineup arrangement could best make up for a lack of outfield defense.

Do I think the Yankees should go hard for Adam Dunn right away? Despite the fact that he'll probably come much cheaper, no. Mark Teixeira should still be the #1 goal for the Yankees offensively. However, the great deal for Nick Swisher and the Angels hot pursuit of Tex makes the prospect of him in Pinstripes somewhat bleak. If the Yankees miss out on Mark Teixeira, they should go full steam ahead for Adam Dunn.