A Connecticut Yankee

A "Departure"

2009-05-09T17:51:00.002-04:00

Hey, guys, sorry for the lack of updates. I've been ridiculously busy with finals so no real time to post. I'm done now, though, and will be graduating tomorrow. Wooo!

Anyway, my posting here is actually going to get less frequent because Rob over at Bronx Baseball Daily has recruited me to come write for him. I'll still post over here every so often, but the majority of my writing is now going to be done at BBD. I hope you follow there as closely as you've followed here.

-Matt

Detroit Series Wrap

2009-04-30T10:25:00.002-04:00

After dropping the first game 4-2, the Yankees went on to score 19 runs over the next two games to beat Detroit 2-1 in a three game set in the Motor City. Sadly, I was unable to watch any of these games because none of them were on My9 and I'm blacked out of ESPN coverage. Luckily, I'll be graduating a week from Sunday so I'll be home to watch every game.

SERIES POSITIVES: Starting pitching. Yeah, when was the last time I could say that? The KC series? The Yankees got good performances from their starters in Detroit; combined, they went 21 innings while allowing only 4 runs (all of those from CC) for an ERA of 1.71. Phil Hughes looked incredible on Tuesday night, as his cutter was biting and his curveball was just absolutely filthy. Last night, the Joba Chamberlain of the present looked like the Joba Chamberlain of the future. It's games like Wednesdays that should remind everyone why Joba's future is as a starter.

SERIES NEGATIVES: The bullpen remained a little shaky, as it gave up six runs last night. But in a win, there's little to complain about. After all, the bullpen only pitched a handful of low-leverage situations during this series.

LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees come home to play the Angels (9-11) stating today. The Angels are 5-5 in their last ten games, but they are on a three game win streak. The pitching matchups are:

Thursday: Anthony Ortega vs. A.J. Burnett
Friday: Jered Weaver vs. Andy Pettitte
Saturday: Matt Palmer vs. CC Sabathia
Sunday: Joe Saunders vs. Phil Hughes

TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .279/.357/.470/.828, 116 OPS+, 30 HR, 113 R
PITCHING: 5.87 ERA, 81 ERA+, 1.511 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.73 K/9

Boston Series Wrap...kind of.

2009-04-27T15:40:00.003-04:00

This series was a mess. That's all I'll say about the games.

SERIES POSITIVES: Robinson Cano. He is hitting like a freakin' mad man right now and I love it. I'm a little worried that he hasn't taken a walk in a while, but I hope his patient approach in this first month sticks around so that Robbie can still be effective when the hits aren't falling.

SERIES NEGATIVES: Literally everything else. This series was Murphy's Law for the Yankees: Mo Himself blew a save, Burnett couldn't hold a six run lead, the bullpen was awful, and, I don't know if you guys heard this, but Jacoby Ellsbury stole home. Another negative for this whole series was the ridiculous bias FOX and ESPN have displayed against the Yankees.

LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees head into Detroit this week and Phil Hughes will be getting a start on Tuesday. I look forward to that game, as well as the awesome Joba v. Porcello matchup on Wednesday night.

TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .276/.358/.475/.833, 115 OPS+, 28 HR, 100 R
PITCHING: 6.26 ERA, 77 ERA+, 1.589 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.62 K/BB

Oakland Series Wrap and Centerfield Thoughts

2009-04-23T08:53:00.003-04:00

The Yankees beat the A's in 14 innings yesterday thanks to a walk off homer by Melky "I'm Doing the Best I Can to Win My Job Back" Cabrera. The bullpen was spectacular last night after CC Sabathia had another shaky start, allowing 7 runs. The night before, the Yankees got a 5-3 win after 7 innings of 2 run ball from Andy Pettitte and an early offensive spurt; so, the Yankees come away with a sweep of the rain-shortened series.

SERIES POSITIVES: The bullpen, the bullpen, and the bullpen. Brian Bruney gave up his first runners/runs since opening day, but aside from that, the Yankees bullpen has been incredible. After relieving CC in the 7th yesterday, the bullpen held the A's scoreless for the rest of the game, striking out six and allowing only five baserunners. Jose Veras looked unhittable yesterday, striking out four over his 3.1 innings--he also only walked one and didn't allow a hit.

SERIES NEGATIVES: CC had another shaky outing, walking four while striking out only two. I would be alarmed, but CC had a rough April last year and rebounded nicely for Cleveland. After four bad starts in April, Sabtahia went on to post a 2.16 ERA, a 1.008 WHIP, a 5.45 K/BB, and a 9.42 K/9. Another negative is the fact that Joe Girardi had to pinch hit for Cody Ransom with Brett Gardner yesterday. You know you're having a bad day when Brett Gardner is coming into the game to HIT for you. Ouch.

LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees have a day off today, except for CMW who's throwing an EST game to try and get himself right, and then they start a three game set with the Sox who've won seven in a row. The matchups are good ones with Joba facing Jon Lester on Friday, it's an alliteration battle on Saturday as Burnett takes on Beckett, and the series closes on Sunday with the veteran Pettitte taking on the young Justin Masterson.

TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .271/.351/.485/.836, 114 OPS+, 25 HRs, 84 R
PITCHING: 6.02 ERA, 82 ERA+, 1.522 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.70 K/BB

Now, onto my thoughts about centerfield. Early on, I advocated for Brett Gardner to start over Melky Cabrera. At this point, Brett really ain't cutting it. He can't seem to hit his way out of a paper bag, and despite his speed, he can't use it if he's not on base. Melky may not play as well on defense as Gardner (who's actually playing poorly now, but in a VERY small sample size), but he's got the hot bat and Girardi needs to play the hot hand. If I'm him, I'm starting Cabrera over Gardner in Boston. This vacillating back and forth between the two of them probably doesn't matter much in the end. Why? Because neither one of them is a viable long term solution in centerfield for the Yankees. If Gardner continues to hit this poorly, he should stay on the bench. If Melky regresses to his norm as a barely league average player, then the Yankees will need to pull the trigger on a trade for Mike Cameron or Marlon Byrd.

Last Night's Game and Xavier Nady

2009-04-22T11:00:00.002-04:00

So the Yankees got a 5-3 win last night over the A's. It was Andy Pettitte's second win and Mariano Rivera's fourth save. Overall, it was a good game for the Yankees. They kept a sustained rally, Pettitte was able to pitch well despite not striking out a batter, and there were some flashy defensive plays. Brian Bruney allowed his first baserunner and run since Opening Day in the eighth, but Rivera was able to shut the door so it was all good. Brett Gardner, who also made a spectacular catch on a long drive from the very well received Jason Giambi, had two RsBI last night, thanks to a Bob Geren mistake. With the infield playing in early in the game, Gardner squeaked a single passed the slick-fielding Mark Ellis to plate the first two runs of the ball game for the Yankees. It was all down hill from there for Oakland starter Dana Eveland. On the plus side for Oakland, it was fun to watch reliever Andrew Bailey come in and throw some smoke. Despite giving up a homer--his first run allowed all year--to Johnny Damon, Bailey was blowing it by the Yankees in the mid-90's.

Two things that may fly under the radar are the two hits Hideki Matsui collected. The first was a double down the left field line and the second was a base hit right up the middle. What's so special about these two things? The directions of the hits. The double was on an outside pitch that Matsui actually went with and smoked down the line. The single was over the middle and that's where Matsui put it back after contact. Matsui usually has a tendency to roll his hands over on pitches that are middle/away and ground out weakly to the right side. It was very, very nice to see him drive the ball the other way and back up the middle. Perhaps he is coming out of his mini slump; I say mini-slump because despite not getting a whole lot of hits, Hideki is still reaching base. Counting last night, Hideki now has 9 walks on the season, and his OBP is up to .409. Matsui coming alive is a very good sign.

Another good sign for the Yankees is that Xavier Nady will not need surgery, and will most likely miss 4-6 weeks. This also likely means that the Yankees won't make a trade or pick someone off the free-agent/waiver wire, since X will be out for a relatively short period of time. It does, however, mean that Melky Cabrera will get more PAs. Melky's hitting .294/.368/.467 as of right now, but I would expect those numbers to fall with more playing time. Regardless, Nady won't have to have surgery and that's good news. Here's to a speedy recovery, X!

Poll Results and Thoughts

2009-04-21T10:38:00.004-04:00

Okay so my latest set of polls has closed, time to look at the data.

For question 1, I asked you all how many innings you think CC will pitch in 2009. 10 out of 18 said 201-220, which is probably about right. For question 2,regarding Burnett's strikeouts, it was a little closer. There were 11 total votes and 4 said 181-200, and 4 said 201+. I'd be more likely to fall into the 181-200 category, but at the rate A.J. is pitching, 201+ seems reachable, no? The Gardner questions almost seem to be a moot point, considering the poor rate of Gardner's hitting so far in '09. Out of the 12 votes regarding steals, no one said BG would get less than 21 steals, and 3 brave souls predicted 40+. 8 of 12 said Gardner would hit his first homer in his first 50 at bats. Gardner's at 45 right now (50 plate appearances) so he could still do it before the 50 AB mark is eclipsed.

OTHER THOUGHTS

Via Pete Abe, Wang's next start will in fact be skipped. I think this is a smart move. The rain and the off day will line everyone up to pitch on full rest and Wang needs a day off. I know he wants to pitch and wants to get out there, but...no. He can't try to work out the kinks against the Red Sox in Fenway. Boston's scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 6 games, including double digit scores (10 and 12) twice. It looks as though their bats are starting to wake up and Wang would only help that. Wang has also struggled in Fenway for his career. Pitching in Boston, Wang has a 5.11 ERA, a 1.523 WHIP, and a .60 K/BB. Skipping Wang in Boston can only help the Yankees.

Like I said yesterday, I'd give him one, two his next start is good, before the Yankees find some reason to put him on the DL and let him work his stuff out in Tampa. This could give him time away from the big league club to work out his issues (which seem to be his release point, the elevation on his pitches, his hands, his arm, his body, his landing....everything) without the pressure of pitching in games that matter. It would also give Phil Hughes some Major League innings, which a) would be good for him and b) probably couldn't be any worse than what Wang did. If Wang was running out there giving starts like Ponson and Rasner did last year, that'd be "alright." But lasting no more than 3.2 innings this season is just unacceptable. In Scranton, Hughes is pitching to the tune of a 2.31 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a 6/1 K/BB, and a 9.64 K/9.

Cleveland Series Wrap Up and Xavier Nady Musings

2009-04-20T17:06:00.006-04:00

The Yankees just finished their first series in the new Stadium and it was "meh" to say the least. I was at my girlfriend's house, and was able to watch Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It was good to see some games in person and not have to follow Gameday Audio or Gameday itself. Joba's struggle with command was troubling, but that's gonna happen every so often. Saturday was, well, ugh. Sunday was better. It was nice to see that Burnett didn't fall apart despite walking seven. Granted, those types of days are the exceptions and not the rules.

The new Stadium is definitely playing small, as balls seem to be flying out to right. Maybe it's the weather? Maybe it's the wind? Maybe it's the balls? Maybe it's the players? Who know? But, I say we give it more than one series before we declare the new Stadium Arlington North or Coors East.

SERIES POSITIVES: Well, splitting a four game series is good, I guess. It's generally pretty hard to win three out of four. The offense is still clicking nicely, though, which is good to see. Brian Bruney had a good series; pitching in two games, the right hander threw two perfect innings while striking out two, throwing only 20 pitches between the two outings. Bruney hasn't allowed a baserunner since Opening Day. Are you watching, Wallace Matthews?

SERIES NEGATIVES: Wang. He was just awful again on Saturday. You've gotta wonder if he's near the end of the proverbial rope. I'm assuming (hoping?) that Girardi skips him in Boston this weekend. After that, he'll probably get one or two starts before we all start chanting "We Want Hughes," though I'm sure people are already chanting that.

LOOKING AHEAD: The game tonight against the A's is called, but they've got two more coming up against Oakland. It'll be nice to see the Big-G back in the Bronx and I hope he gets a big hand tomorrow. I feel like the Giambino will always be under-appreciated in the Bronx.

TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .260/.342/.475/.817, 110 OPS+, 20 HR, 70 R
PITCHING: 6.54 ERA, 74 ERA+, 1.584 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.76 K/BB

Nady Musings:

Via Kevin Devaney, Xavier Nady still doesn't have a diagnosis on his right elbow. No matter how much time X misses, it's not good for the Yankees. Sure, I wanted Nick Swisher to play over him, but not this way. While I think Swisher would've eventually played his way into the lineup over Nady--and Swisher is the better player--Xavier's absence hurts. The fourth outfielder is now Melky Cabrera instead of Swish or X. Any time the Yankees have to give more PAs to the Melk-man, it's not a good thing. This could give Damon less time off than Girardi would like, and it most likely means that if Brett Gardner struggles, a trade is going to have to be made. No Nady off the bench means that Swisher and Damon will probably see zero action in CF this year and maybe I'm looking too deep into my fake-crystal ball, but I don't see the Yankees giving Melky the CF job, even if/when Gardner falters. Nady would've also been able to spell Hideki Matsui against tough left handed pitchers if need be. I was never a huge Xavier Nady fan, but his presence on the team was vital to its depth. His injury means more playing time for a lesser player and maybe even an external move. Regardless, I hope X gets a good diagnosis and he's able to play again this season. If not, we've more than likely seen our last of Xavier Nady in the Bronx.

Tampa Bay Series Wrap Up

2009-04-16T11:02:00.002-04:00

After a disastrous 15-5 loss on Monday night, the Yankees came back strong behind A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte to win their first series with Tampa this season. While Monday night's game was just a mess, the pitching of Nick Swisher proved that he is clearly the greatest player to ever put on a Yankee uniform. This may or may not be hyperbole, but I don't care. After all, I am the self-appointed president of the Nick Swisher Fan Club, right?

SERIES POSITIVES: Two thirds of the starters in this series did a fantastic job. The two combined to allow just 5 runs in 15.1 innings (2.98 ERA), while surrendering only 9 hits and 2 walks between them (.728 WHIP) and striking out 13 (7.8 K/9, 6.5 K/BB). Both Burnett and Pettitte have been incredibly sharp in their first two starts, both of which came after awful outings from Chien Ming Wang. Which brings us to...

SERIES NEGATIVES: Chien Ming Wang. While Dave Eiland said he looked good in the bullpen before the game, Wang just couldn't get it right on the mound. He allowed 8 runs in just 1 inning of work (three of which scored on a grand slam by Carlos Pena, given up by Jonathan Albaladejo). That's two bad starts in a row for Wang, but we all seem to know what the problem is: Wang isn't getting on top of his pitches, leaving his release point too high, and it's leaving his sinker up in the zone to get crushed.

LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees open up the new Stadium today against the Indians. This game features a great pitching matchup between the last two AL Cy Young Award winners: CC Sabathia (2007) and Cliff Lee (2008). Lee has looked pretty bad in his two starts so far in '09, giving up 17 hits and 5 walks in only 10 innings of work. On the plus side, he has struck out 10 batters, good for a 9.0 K/9. Lee's FIP stands at 4.13, though, so some positive correction for his 9.90 ERA should be coming--let's just hope it's not today! Go Yanks!

Center Field Options

2009-04-14T11:44:00.002-04:00

Brett Gardner seems to be struggling at the plate a little bit (.227/.261/.273, though he is 2-2 in steals). Melky's hitting just as bad at .250/.250/.250. I know it's early, but we all know how much the Yankees love instant gratification. So, who could the Yankees turn to outside the organization to fill a potential offensive black hole in CF?

Internally, the Yankees could switch to Nick "The Greatest Player in Yankee History" Swisher or Johnny Damon in center. While both of these moves would be an offensive upgrade over Gardner and Cabrera, they are defensive downgrades from Gardner. Swisher said he didn't like playing the position, and the numbers bear that out. Swisher is -9.5 UZR/150 in center for his career. However, his offense could make up for this, as it'd be a huge upgrade over Gardy. Swisher, and Damon for that matter, could probably manage CF without looking like complete morons, but I'd rather not have Swisher play a position he doesn't like or Damon play a position that he may not have the health to play anymore.

Externally, there's Milwaukee's Mike Cameron. Cameron was the subject of much debate in Yankee land over the offseason and there was a slight possibility that he was going to be the Yankees Opening Day CF. Now, the Yankees need another aging outfielder about as much as they need Joba in the bullpen, but Cameron is in the last year of his contract and would just be a one real rental. Cameron has a career line of .250/.340/.448/.778, good for a 106 OPS+. So, at the plate, Cameron has been just slightly above average. In the field, Cameron is a plus player, coming in at 5.2 UZR/150 in CF. Again, Mike has been above average for his career in the field. Yes he's old and we all want the Yankees to go with the young guys, but if Gardner doesn't develop over the next month or so, Mr. Cameron will look better and better.

Next, there's Texas's Marlon Byrd. He's five years younger than Cameron and is a pretty similar hitter. Byrd's got a career line of .272/.342/.409/.751. That's only a 98 OPS+, so very slightly below average. Byrd may not offer much in terms of power, but he's got a decent OBP and has a 2.6 UZR/150 in CF for his career (424 games). Byrd is also on a one year deal, having avoided arbitration with Texas. Byrd could be the better option over Cameron since he's younger and could be brought back to the team, since the Yankees could lose Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, and Hideki Matsui.

Those are the two probable options for centerfield in my opinion. However, I'm not advocating for B-Cash to get on the horn and make a trade right away. I'm more than willing to give Brett Gardner around 300 at bats to see if he can turn this slow start around. Melky, though, I really have no faith in. He's had his chance and he is what he is: a below average player.

About Last Night...

2009-04-14T08:57:00.006-04:00

BLOWOUT LOSS

Yeah, last night was ugly. Wang couldn't get his sinker down and he got absolutely tagged. There really isn't anything positive to take from last night, is there? At least Nick Swisher pitched a scoreless inning. I think this is concrete proof that he is the greatest player in Yankee history.

The only thing the Yankees can hope to do is rebound tonight with A.J. Burnett on the mound. He righted the ship in Baltimore after Sabathia and Wang had bad games to open the season, so maybe he can do it again. In 2008, A.J. had a 3.15 ERA vs. the Rays, to go along with 26 strikeouts in just 20 innings of work.

TOP OF THE ORDER SLUMPING

Derek Jeter is one for his last 20 with only one walk, while Johnny Damon is two for his last 16, with two walks. With these two slumping, it's gonna be hard for the Yankees to come into some runs--unless of course Nick Swisher keeps hitting.

CODY RANSOM

I didn't watch the game last night, but I followed it on Gameday and briefly listened to Gameday Audio, along with getting relays of the game from my girlfriend via the phone. From what I "watched," listened to, and heard, Cody Ransom is just a mess. Come on, Joe. I know it's early, but it's time to give Cody a game or three off. Put Ramiro Pena in the lineup and see what he can do. There's absolutely no way he could be any worse than Cody Ransom has been.

NICK SWISHER KEEPS HITTING

Swish added his third home run of the year last night, bringing his season line to .450/.542/1.150/1.692, 3 HR, 10 RBI. He's fourth in the AL in average, third in OBP, first in slugging and OPS, fourth in homers and third in RBI. These numbers are obviously going to come down, but they're fun while they last.

And while we can be easily swayed by these early stats, I think Swisher is showing everyone why he should've been the staring RF instead of Xavier Nady. Joe Girardi has said he still sees Xavier as an every day player and won't go with the hot hand. This is something I don't understand. Why not go with the hot hand? It hasn't mattered with Mark Teixeira missing the last two games with a wrist injury and Swisher manning first, but when Tex comes back, Swisher needs to stay in the lineup. Nady's been hitting alright at .280/.308/.440, so maybe he can stay in there. Maybe someone else needs a seat.

HIDEKI MATSUI STRUGGLING

Matsui is hitting only .125/.190/.292 at this point. Perhaps when Tex returns to the lineup (hopefully tonight), Matsui can take a night off and Swisher could take over the DH duties. I doubt this happens, but Girardi needs to find a way to work Swisher into the every day lineup. He's hitting far too well to be kept out of it.

The lesson for the day: Nick Swisher is awesome.

Kansas City Series Wrap Up

2009-04-13T10:34:00.002-04:00

Joe Girardi made some questionable bullpen moves yesterday, as the Yankees fell to the Royals, 6-4. The Yanks, however, still took two out of three from KC, winning Friday night and Saturday night, with strong pitching performances from Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia.

SERIES POSITIVES: The starting pitching was the most inspiring thing in this Yankees/Royals series. Friday night featured a vintage version of Andy Pettitte, Saturday brought us the CC Sabathia we've all come to know and love, and Sunday was Joba Chamberlain's first start of the year and if it weren't for said questionable bullpen moves, Joba would've had his first win of the year.

SERIES NEGATIVES: Cody Ransom. We knew he wouldn't be A-Rod, or anything close to it for that matter, but Cody is definitely playing well below where we thought he would. His play in the field isn't looking all the great either. Maybe General Joe will throw Ramiro Pena a start in the coming days, just to shake things up. He can't be worse than Ransom, right?

LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees open a three game series in Tampa tonight. Both teams come in 3-3, trying to establish an early rhythm in the rough AL East. The pitching matchups are: Wang v. Kazmir, Burnett v. Garza, and Pettitte v. Sonnanstine.

TEAM STATS TO THIS POINT:
OFFENSE: .262/.336/.452/.789, 108 OPS+, 7 HR, 35 R
PITCHING: 4.41 ERA, 105 ERA+, 3.4 BB/9, 7.1 BB/9, 2.11 K/BB

A sad note today as the baseball world lost its second member in a week. Legendary Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas died today before the defending champs' match-up with the Nats in Washington tonight. Kalas was truly one of the greats and Phillies games won't be the same without him. RIP Harry Kalas and Nick Adenhart.

Baltimore Series Wrap Up

2009-04-10T11:29:00.003-04:00

AJ Burnett and Nick Swisher saved the season yesterday. The former struck out six in 5.1 innings to earn his first win as a Yankee and Nick Swisher homered and drove in five to help the Yankees to an 11-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Mark Teixeira tied the game at one early on with his first homer as a Yankee. After two bad games, the Yankees looked great yesterday.

SERIES POSITIVES: The offense was great this week, scoring 21 runs across the three games. Obviously, that's a pace that they won't keep up but it's great to see the bats getting going early. Robinson Cano was especially surprising, drawing three walks in the opening series. Hopefully he and Kevin Long worked to develop Robbie's patience and not just a new stance.

SERIES NEGATIVES: CC stumbled in his first start as a Yankee and Chien Ming Wang didn't look great in his first start since my 21st birthday (June 15, 2008). Both struggled with their release points and had trouble keeping the ball low in the zone. I was annoyed, but I'm far from worried. It was the first game for both of them. Chances are, this won't be a trend for CC and the Wanger. The bullpen also had one bad inning, but aside from that, they've been fine.

LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees take on the Royals for a three game series in KC and since I'm going home for the weekend, I'll be able to watch my first games of the season. I'm pumped. This afternoon, they'll face former mate Sidney Ponson and, if we're lucky, Krazy Kyle Farnsworth will make another appearance for the Royals.

TEAM STATS TO THIS POINT: OFFENSE: .297/.368/.559/.927, 141 OPS+, 6 HR, 21 R -- PITCHING: 6.84 ERA, 67 ERA+ 1.800 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.O7 K/BB

Ramblings

2009-04-08T17:22:00.003-04:00

Good evening everyone. Before I have to run off to my Depictions of Italian-Americans in Cinema class, I thought I'd share a few thoughts.

First, Opening Day was a disappointment. It was a crappy game and we didn't get what we expected. We'll get 'em for the next 161, though. That didn't stop Wallace Matthews from making a stupid argument though. How the first game of the year was a case for Joba in the pen is just beyond me. The Yankees were trailing for most of the game. How would a great relief performance have helped? It's not the bullpen's fault Rob Thompson made a bad call that got Nady called out. It's not the bullpen's fault Girardi put a sac bunt on instead of trying to score the run. It's not the bullpen's fault Derek Jeter couldn't hit a fly ball to get Ramiro Pena home. It's not the bullpen's fault that Mark Teixeira couldn't get Pena home with two outs. Whatever.

Second, it's a bittersweet weekend/week for UConn basketball. The men were eliminated by MUS in the Final Four in what was probably their worst game of the year. Shaky shooting, dismal defense, foul free throw shooting, and repulsive rebounding. On the other hand, the women completed a perfect 39-0 season, beating Lousiville last night in the championship. Congrats, girls.

Third, there's two articles from Beyond the Boxscore that caught my attention. The first is one about catching prospects and their arms. This article tells us one thing we knew for sure: Jesus Montero is a much better hitter than he is a fielder. 75% of guys are able to steal off of him successfully. Ouch. The surprising thing is how poor Austin Romine's percentage was: 82.4%. That's just...wow. Yuck. What's "unsettling" about this is that Romine was supposed to be the good defender, not the bad one! I guess this is just another divide between stats and scouts that will have to work itself out. On a related note, there's the second article about CF prospects. Austin Jackson was basically the second worst minor league CF last year. This is a stark contrast to scouts who've touted him as very good in the field. Austin's defense (and his K/BB rate) are something we'll have to keep an eye on this year. If the defense can't improve, he might be relegated to a corner OF position and though A-Jax has a pretty good bad, it's not good enough to be a LF/RF bat.

IT'S OPENING DAY!

2009-04-06T10:09:00.003-04:00

Ladies and gentlemen, the start of the baseball season is upon us. Today is Opening Day. Today is a holiday for all of us baseball fans, so let's get out there and celebrate.

Go CC, go Yankees, and most importantly, go baseball.

Play ball, boys!

Division Preview Series Part Six: AL EAST!

2009-04-05T15:59:00.003-04:00

Opening Night is a mere four hours away so let's get to the toughest division in baseball: the AL East!

1. New York Yankees Call it a homer pick but I believe it's totally logical. The Yankees were an 89 win team last year in a down year in which they had awful starting pitching at the beginning of the year--Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy--and awful starting pitching in the middle of the year--Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner. The rotation has been fixed by bringing in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, along with re-adding Chien-Ming Wang and finally making the smart move by putting Joba Chamberlain into the starting rotation. The Yankees also have a great bullpen, led by Mariano Rivera. Young Phil Coke will be with the team for an entire season and he was brilliant in his time last year, as well as in spring training. Damaso Marte is a solid pitcher with a good track record and Jonathan Albaladejo has excellent potential. Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez are "wild cards" in some minds, but I don't think so. They may not be all-stars, but they're incredibly solid. The Yankees also have a great lineup to put out on the field. While they'll be without A-Rod for at least the first month, adding Mark Teixeira will help alleviate that, along with a healthy Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui. Even if A-Rod's absence becomes an issue at the plate, the Yankees can win with pitching.

STRENGTHS: For the first time in a while, pitching is the main strength of the New York Yankees. The starting rotation could be the best in all of baseball when it's all said and done and the bullpen is also very good, even without Joba in the "all-important" eighth inning. The offense can probably still put up well over 800 runs this season, even if A-Rod is out for a while, so that's a strength, too.

WEAKNESSES: Staying healthy could be a problem for the Yankees. Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter are no spring chickens, Jorge's coming off shoulder surgery, and Hideki Matsui has the knees of an old woman. A.J. Burnett has a history of injuries, but he appears to have conditioned himself well enough to put those problems in the past. Health risks are an issue for any team, and the Yankees are no exception. If I had to pick an on field weakness for the Bronx Bombers, I'd say defense up the middle could be a problem. Jorge's never been great defensively, Jeter is Jeter, and Cano is all over the damn place. However, the OF defense has the chance to be stellar with Damon in left, Gardner in center and (hopefully later when Girardi realizes he may've made a mistake by starting Nady) Swisher in right.

Player to Watch: Jorge Posada. Jorge is the most underrated Yankee and one of the most underrated players of his generation. His absence from the lineup last year was the main reason the offense struggled as badly as it did. If Jorge can come back and catch 100-120 games, the Yankee offense should recover. If he can't, well, at least they have the pitching to make up for it.

2. Boston Red Sox The Sawx will finish in second and grab the wildcard again in '09. They return a great top three in Diauske, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester, but after that, it's kind of shaky. Brad Penny and John Smoltz are health risks, Clay Buccholz is as unproven as Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy and Justin Masterson has been moved to the pen full time. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are coming off of career years (that they're unlikely to repeat or improve upon), Jason Bay is playing a full season with the Monster to his left, and David Ortiz is still a good hitter. Boston's lineup should be fine if Oritz and Mike Lowell stay healthy. However, I don't think they've got the rotation to keep up with the Yankees this season.

STRENGTHS: Boston has a very good bullpen. The Yankees were better as relievers last year (Yankees: 3.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9; Sox: 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9) but don't tell anyone at ESPN. Regardless, Boston's pen is a strength and the addition of Takashi Saito could improve it even more.

WEAKNESSES: Like the Yankees: health. After the Yankees grabbed three of the four top free agents out there (Tex, CC, A.J.), the Sox went shopping for cheaper players. They got John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, and Rocco Baldelli. These are good pick ups because they're low-risk, high reward. However, they're all giant red flags for injury. Penny's coming off a 94 inning season, Smoltz won't be ready til May, and Saito's shoulder caused the Dodgers to not even give him a second look. Rocco Baldelli is a great story and someone we can all root for, but his health is a serious question and any returns he gives Boston will probably be minimal. If these players perform well, Theo Epstein once again looks like a genius. However, if they don't, he could come off looking foolish.

Player to Watch: Diasuke Matsuzaka was so lucky last year it's not even funny. His ERA was due for a correction all year and he never got it. It's highly unlikely he can continue pitching at a very high level while walking so many people. We'll have to watch this year to see if that ERA gets corrected.

3. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays The Rays came out of no where and won the AL East last year, ultimately falling short to the Phillies in the World Series. They had a great blend of young talent, good pitching, and good defense last year, and they return basically the same team with a few additions. So, why the third place finish? It has nothing to do with them playing with "expectations" this year like Steve Phillips has said, but rather the fact that they, too, were a little lucky last year. All five of their starters made at least 27 starts. That sort of health is beyond lucky. I will be shocked if that trend repeats itself this year. While I'm more or less confident that Shields and Garza can stay healthy, I'm unsure about Kazmir's health (regardless of how good he is) and Andy Sonnanstine could revert to his '07 form.

STRENGTHS: If the starters stay healthy, they could push for second against Boston. They have a great top three, just like Boston and New York, but with David Price's demotion to the AAA, it may not be great. However, when he gets called up, they'll be alright. The starting staff should be their best feature this year, with their defense in a close second.

WEAKNESSES: The Rays' lineup doesn't scream "fantastic" (9th in runs scored last year, 13th/4th/8th in AVG/OBP/SLG in the AL) but it's not too bad either. The addition of Pat Burrell to DH is a very good one and will add some power to the middle of the lineup but there are some questions: Will B.J. Upton's power come around? Will Evan Longoria continue to hit at such a high level? Can Carl Crawford bounce back? Can Dioner Navarro repeat a career year?

Player to Watch: Evan Longoria. I mean, come on. Is this even in question? The reigning AL Rookie of the Year will have all eyes on him this year, watching for a sophomore slump. This slick fielding power hitting third baseman could be the best player on the Rays this year and for years to come.

It's worth noting here that I think the division race will be a very fierce competition all year. The top three teams will most likely be separated by no more than 3-4 games at the end of the year. I don't see any team winning more than 95 games in this incredibly tough division, either.

4. Baltimore Orioles The O's are gonna climb out of the cellar this year. However, it's not because of any real improvement, but rather the fact that the Jays are pretty dismal this year.

STRENGTHS: The OF trio of Scott--Jones--Markakis is probably the best defensive trio in all of baseball and they will probably be the core of Baltimore's offense as well. Markakis is a budding star and should be a household name by the end of '09.

WEAKNESSES: Pitching. Jeremy Guthrie is no slouch, but he's absolutely nothing to write home about. Sadly for the O's, he's their "ace." Guthrie's not like Sidney Ponson or anything, but he's also no where near Kazmir, Beckett, and Sabathia. After him, it really doesn't get much better. If the O's had a better offense, they could possibly hit their way out of such bad pitching but...they really don't. Their offense was middle of the road last season (8/8/5 in AVG/OBP/SLG) and that was with Aubrey Huff's 2nd best season and Luke Scott's 2nd best season.

Player to Watch: The next Jesus: Matt Weiters. Sorry, just thought I'd add to the hyperbole around him. He's going to be great, probably not this season, but he will contend for the AL ROY award.

5. Toronto Blue Jays Ugh. I almost feel bad for the Jays. They were 7 games under their pytahg record in '08 (damn bad luck!) and if they played in other divisions, they could be a contender. However, they've now lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees and Shaun Marcum to Tommy John Surgery.

STRENGTHS: Roy Halladay. That's about it, really. The offense could improve this year, though, as Alex Rios continues to develop and Vernon Wells had a bounce back '08 (sign of good to come?) and the addition of Travis Snider. The bullpen outside is also a strength. But with a rotation like that, will it matter?

WEAKNESSES: Rotation. Am I overstating this? Perhaps, but I really don't see the Jays having a strong pitching season.

Player to Watch: Travis Snider. He's my pre-season AL ROY pick.

On another note, my girlfriend and I bought tickets to Saturday May 16th's game against the Twins. I'm absolutely pumped for my first trip to the new Stadium. Enjoy the game tonight and celebrate the start of REAL BASEBALL! LET'S GO YANKEES!

Why Do People Still Think Like This?

2009-04-01T17:05:00.004-04:00

Why? Just why? Why do people still think that Joba Chamberlain is best used as a relief pitcher? It's just ridiculous.

Joba Chamberlain had his best outing of the spring Tuesday,, limiting the Reds to five hits and two runs in 51/3 innings. He was so good, in fact, that he pitched the Yankees almost to the point where, ideally, Joba Chamberlain would come into the game.

And that's the problem.

So his pitching well is a...bad thing? Why? Because he did it starting instead of relieving? That makes very little sense.

Not even Joba, as good as he is, can fill two roles at once. He can start a game or he can finish it.

Or, he could throw a complete game and do both. But that's a rarity in baseball. It's also a story for another day. Anyway, if I have my choice between Chamberlain starting and pitching 5-7 innings, I'll take it over him relieving and pitching 1-2 innings.

The Yankees, who have an abundance of guys to start their games this year, think it's a good idea to take the greatest two-inning pitcher since Mariano Rivera, circa 1996, and turn him into just another starter.

Yeah, they also have an abundance of guys who can relieve. That's why Dan Giese, Brett Tomoko, and Al Aceves were sent down to Scranton instead of breaking camp with the Yankees. It's not like the pen isn't some rag-tag group of ne'er-do-wells. They've got a good core of live young arms--Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, Jon Albaladejo--two seasoned veterans--Mariano Rivera and Damaso Marte--and the capable Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez. In fact, this bullpen had a 3.73 ERA in '08, along with an 8.66 K/9. I know that includes some of Chamberlain's numbers, but they'll be more than fine without him.

As for Mariano Rivera...do you wanna know why he was a two inning pitcher, Matthews? Because he failed as a starter. He was a fantastic starter in the minors, but he couldn't hack it as a starter in the majors. Why's that? Because he didn't have enough pitches to make it through the lineup more than once. Joba Chamberlain does not have this problem. He has a plus fastball, an explosive slider, a workable changeup, and a solid curveball. Guys with four pitches don't need to be wasted in the eighth inning.

I think they're nuts.

Pot? Kettle? Black?

The reality with starters is that they are six-inning pitchers on most days, seven- and eight-inning pitchers on their best days.

Yeah, and? Wouldn't you rather have a guy pitch six innings instead of one or two, especially if he was fully capable of doing so?

In four out of every five starts, they are going to need a guy to come charging out of that bullpen in the seventh inning to hold the game until the closer gets there.

A guy like Joba Chamberlain.

You wanna know the truth, Wallace Matthews? Most games are essentially already decided by the 7th inning. Using the WPA Calculator, we can see that a home team, winning by one, in the top of the seventh, wins the game 72.5% of the time. You don't need a guy as good as Joba Chamberlain to pitch the 7th or 8th to hold that lead down. You only need a guy as good as say...Brian Bruney or Phil Coke or Albie or Edwar or Veras or Marte...

Not to mention the Yankees were something like 73-2 in games in which they led after 7 innings. Taking Joba out of the 8th inning role will not drastically hurt that number.

But Joba isn't doing that anymore. Greater baseball minds than mine have analyzed this situation at great length and determined that Joba for the first six innings every five days is better than Joba out of the bullpen five times a week.

You know why they've determined that? Because even a slightly above average starter is more valuable than a lights out reliever.

I say that's like hiring Picasso to paint your garage door or asking Mozart to come up with a toothpaste jingle. Many can start; few can finish. Joba can finish. He was a great setup man, and someday he'll be a great closer. Those commodities are a lot scarcer on the market than starting pitchers.

Actually, I'd say in your situation. That'd be like hiring Picasso or Mozart to do such menial tasks. Joba is fully capable of being a great starter and wasting him in the eighth and ninth innings would be so silly.

That second statement about the market is just a joke. Why do you think CC Sabathia's getting $14 million in 2009 and $23 million from '10-'15 and K-Rod is never making more than $17.5 in a year? BECAUSE STARTERS ARE ALWAYS MORE VALUABLE THAN RELIEVERS!

And the Yankees, of all teams, should know it. In 1996, they wrote the book on the art of shortening the game. The nightly relay team - starting pitcher to Rivera to John Wetteland - was more reliable than Tinker to Evers to Chance. It forced every one of their opponents into the hurry-up offense, every night.

Again, Rivera failed as a starter. Go look up Rivera's minor league numbers. If he had been able to duplicate them at the Major League level, do you really think he would've been turned into a closer? I doubt it.

If you didn't get those Yankees within six innings, you weren't getting them at all, and the numbers bear it out - the record of the 1996 world champions was 70-3 in games they led after six.

That's because it's hard to win a game when you're down with only 9 outs to play with no matter who's pitching.

I also love how he completely ignores the Yankees good starting pitching in the late '90s, as if it was the bullpen that did the job.

The Yankees patented that formula, bottled it and swigged liberally from the bottle for the next decade, although it never worked quite as well when Rivera had to depend on mere mortals such as Brian Bruney and Kyle Farnsworth to get him the baseball.

Didn't the Yankees make the playoffs all the time despite "poor" set up men? Yeah, they did. They also survived with Joe Torre's more-than-questionable bullpen management. Also, Brian Bruney was awesome in '06 and '08 so I don't see Matthews's point here.

*snip*

Best of all, he seemed to solve the biggest question the Yankees will have to face in the next couple of years, namely, who would replace the irreplaceable Rivera?

I'd say a bigger problem was their crappy starting rotation, which they've fixed with the likes of Sabathia, Burnett, and Chamberlain. As for who will take over the closer role? Well, if Rivera were hurt, there's a ton of bullpen guys who can do that. And there's Mark Melancon.

As great as Rivera has been for the Yankees, he is overrated. Yes, I said it. The closer is probably the most overrated position in American sports, even if it's Mo--the greatest closer ever.

Besides, now Joba and his colleagues will have to sweat out games entrusted to the likes of Bruney and Damaso Marte. It could be worse, I suppose, but thankfully Farnsworth is in Kansas City this year.

Like I said, Brian Bruney was fantastic last year. Damaso Marte wasn't great, but he has a history of performing very, very well. Does this guy seriously know anything about the Yankees?

This guy can shorten games for the Yankees now, and close games for them over the next 10 years. Barring catastrophic injury, that's virtually a certainty.

Yeah, you know how he can shorten games? Pitch the first six or seven innings, which are more important than the last two. Why do games get shortened in the first place? BECAUSE OF GOOD STARTING PITCHING! The bullpen can only be effective when the starters are good, right? You could have a 7-8-9 combo of Soria-Papelbon-Rivera but if your starters are Ponson, Rasner, and Igawa, what does it matter? I know it's not that drastic since the Yankees now have a strong rotation (with Chamberlain) but what's the point of weakening it by removing Chamberlain?

I'll end on this. Here are Chamberlain's stats as a starter:

12 G, 65.1 IP, 60 H, 25 BB, 74 SO, 2.76 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, 2.96 K/BB, 10.23 K/9

Division Preview Series Part Five: AL Central

2009-03-31T11:15:00.002-04:00

Spring Training is winding down! The start of the season is less than a week away! So, here's the penultimate division preview in my six part series: the AL Central, but I'm gonna keep it a bit shorter, saving my effort for two things. The first is an awesome paper I'm gearing up to write about Frankenstein and "The Dark Knight;" the second is my AL East preview, which will be much more detailed than this one.

1. Cleveland Indians The Indians had a bit of a hiccup in '08, but I think they can rebound to win this division. I don't think Travis Hafner is as bad as he was in '08, and the same goes for Fausto Carmona (even though Carmona is definitely not as good as he was in '07). Cliff Lee most likely won't repeat his Cy Young performance from last year, but even a slight regression wouldn't kill the Indians. The addition of Kerry Wood is a decent one as well, but it could be offset by the addition of one Carl Pavano.

Player to Watch: Grady Sizemore. Grady is probably the best CF in baseball right now, but somehow, I feel he's a slightly under-appreciated. Ken Rosenthal predicted him to win MVP the other day, though, so maybe I'm the one not paying attention.

2. Minnesota Twins The Twins have good young pitching and the best catcher in baseball and the should-have-been-MVP-in-2008: Joe Mauer. With a little more offense, the Twins could challenge the Indians for the division, but I don't think they can muster the runs.

Player to Watch: Delmon Young. Delmon's a solid young player, but his power has yet to show up. If it does in '09, that'll be a huge shot in the arm for the Twinkies and could push them over the edge.

3. Chicago White Sox Maybe it's just my irrational hatred for Ozzie Guillen, but I'm just not high on this team. The offense will probably be there with Konerko, Dye, Thome, and Quentin, but there's no good pitching in Chicago.

Player to Watch: Carlos Quentin. Carlos busted onto the scene in '08 and probably would've won MVP if not for a season ending wrist injury. Was this for real? Who knows?

4. Kansas City Royals Once again, the Royals won't finish in the cellar in '09. Their offense is shoddy, but with Zach Greinke and Gil Meche in the rotation and Joakim Soria out of the 'pen, they've actually got some decent pitching. They may not be great, but they're probably better than what the Tigers can muster up.

Player to Watch: Just for fun, I'm gonna say Kyle Farnsworth. The Royals signed him to a 2 year, $9.25 million deal. This deal is just awful for the Royals, but it could be decent if Farnswoth pitches like he did for the Yankees in the first half of '08. Maybe. Probably not. Have fun with Krazy Kyle, KC.

5. Detroit Tigers This team's just a mess. They might be able to score some runs with Miggy Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson, but there's no way they can prevent runs The Matt Joyce/Edwin Jackson trade was not a good one for the Tigers, IMO, and with Joel Zumaya starting the year on the DL, the 'pen might be in trouble, too.

Player to Watch: Justin Verlander. The hard throwing right-hander took negative turns in K/9, BB/9, K/BB, ERA, WHIP, and FIP. Yikes. Can he regain his '06-'07 form, when he finished 7th and 5th in the Cy Young voting and a Rookie of the Year award in '06? We'll see. if not, the Tigers will be in for another celler-dwelilng season. Sorry, Michigan.

Poll Results!

2009-03-30T20:55:00.002-04:00

I've had some of my polls up for a long time, and they're due to expire tomorrow so I thought I'd write up the results.

The first question: Who should start in CF--Brett, Melky, or someone else? The results from your responses were pretty clear: start Brett! He got 33 votes, good for 73% of the vote. It seems as if General Joe has listened, naming Gardner the starting center fielder.

The next, and most important question, was on how far the Yankees would go in 2009. 60% of you have dreams of a 27th World Championship for the Bronx Bombers this year. I hope you're all right. 18% thought a World Series berth was in the cards while 7%, 8 votes, thought the Yankees would miss the playoffs altogether. Somewhat surprisingly, this got more votes than the Yankees exiting after the ALDS, which got only 4 votes, 3%.

Next was the question of who would have a better year: Tex or A-Rod? In the beginning of this question's existence, A-Rod was winning by a landslide. However, with all the injury news, it started to even out a bit and ended up 57-32 (64%-35%) in A-Rod's favor. Despite those results, it seems apparent that Teixeira will have the better season.

Last but not least is the pitching version of the previous question: who'll have a better year: CC or A.J.? This was the most lopsided question, with CC taking 86% of the vote.

So, we'll re-visit this post later in the year to see how close we all were on our "predictions." Have a good one, everybody and GO HUSKIES!

Division Preview Series Part Four: AL West

2009-03-24T11:00:00.002-04:00

We're in the swing of things in terms of March Madness and the Huskies are DOMINATING and Opening Day is creeping ever closer! So, here's part four of six of my division preview series...the AL West!

1.Oakland Athletics The A's will end the Angels two year reign on top of the AL West in 2009. There are usually two choices in life: go big or go home. In this offseason, Billy Beane chose to go big. He traded for Matt Holliday, he brought Jason Giambi back home (WE'LL MISS YOU, BIG G!), and he also brought in Orlando Cabrera along with NOMAAAAAAAH. Offense was a big problem for the A's last season (14th in BA, 13th in OBP, and 14th in SLG), but Giambi and Holliday should help that. A 3-4-5 combination of Giambi-Holliaday-Cust could be the absolute best in the division. Oakland had a collection of no names on their pitching staff but still finished fourth in the AL in ERA and 9th in the Majors in FIP. Oakland's pitching may not be a shining star, but it is by no mean a black hole. With their improved offense, they should be able to overtake the Angels for the AL West title in 2009.

Player to Watch: Matt Holliday. Holliday came over in a trade with the Rockies. Holliday has a reputation for not hitting well away from Coors Field. He is going from a park that had a park factor of 105 last year to one that had a park factor of 97 last year. Holliday is a free agent next offseason and if he performs well outside of Coors for a whole season, he will get himself a huge deal with another AL team (maybe the Yankees? More on that at another time). If not, he could go back to the NL. No player is going to be under a bigger microscope than Matt Holliday this season.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Aside from not having an unpretentious name, the Angels don't have much offense. Of course, Vlad is solid and they did add Bobby Abreu, but Abreu is in his decline phase. They have no power at the corner infield positions and even with the added "bonus" of Torii Hunter, the Angels offense won't be able to score enough runs. If, however, Mike Napoli can get some more PAs, he adds significant pop to the lineup. They're due for a big time pythag record correction this year as well. They were 100-62 in '08 despite having a phythag record of 88-74. Compare that to the '07 Mariners who had a record of 88-74, despite a pythag record of 79-83 (61-101 in '08 with a PR of 67-95)and the '07 D-Backs (90-72, PR: 99-83; 82-80 in '09 with an exactly similar PR.). I would expect a similar correction for the '09 Angels, despite their strong pitching staff. I don't expect the loss of K-Rod to hurt them all that much, but there just won't be enough runs to support the staff.

Player to Watch: Ervin Santana. Ervin rebounded nicely from an incredibly rough 2007 to have a very good 2008. He improved his K/BB from 2.17 to an ridiculous 4.55 and decreased his FIP from 5.13 to 3.30. Was 2008 fluky? Perhaps. But, it could just be the progression of a young, budding pitcher. Is Ervin as bad as he was in 2007? Definitely not. Is he as good as he was in '08? Probably not, but he's somewhere in the middle, and that's not bad at all.

3. Texas Rangers This team is the opposite of the Angels. All hit and no pitch. They were poised to sign Ben Sheets to correct that, but we all know how that turned out. Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler will anchor the offense that might take a hit after losing its best hitter in Milton Bradley. Hank Blalock is a consistent presence at third base, and he will have a new compliment at the opposite corner in budding youngster Chris Davis. Taylor Teagarden had a good in his brief 47 ABs and he could be a contender for AL Rookie of the Year. Texas led the AL in runs scored with 901 last year, but they also gave up 967. I see no way that Texas can improve on that disparity and with improved offense in Oakland and solid pitching in Los Angeles, there's no way the Rangers can keep up.

Player to Watch: Nelson Cruz. Cruz put up a line of .330/.421/.609 in 115 ABs last year and CHONE projects him to do .271/.374/.495 this season. If Cruz can do that, he could be a nice compliment to Josh Hamilton in the outfield and would be able to fill at least part of the gap left by Milton Bradley's departure to the Cubs.

4. Seattle Mariners There really isn't much to be excited about in the Emerald City. King Felix is great and Ichiro is still solid, but their essentially alone. Erik Bedard was good in his 15 games last season, but health is always an issue with him. The team has also lost Raul Ibanez to the Phillies and they didn't do anything to plug that hole. Adding Ken Griffey is great for nostalgia's sake, but it does nothing in terms of baseball. They played a few games below their pythag record last year, so there could be an improvement but that is unlikely. There is no one who can hit well and unless Bedard is healthy, the M's really only have one good starter.

Player to Watch: Erik Bedard. If Bedard is healthy, he and Felix Hernandez could be a great one-two punch, but if not, the M's rotation is essentially punch-less.

Thanks for reading, everyone. Check back next time for the AL Central

Division Preview Series Part Three: NL East

2009-03-21T14:33:00.003-04:00

Alright, I just made my own meatballs and made a sandwich out of them for lunch so now it's time for blogging. This is the third part in my division preview series: the National League East.

1.Philadelphia Phillies I like the Phils to repeat as division champs. The defending World Series champs have some question marks in terms of pitching, but I think they can out-hit the rest of the division to make up for those possible deficiencies. What are those question marks? I think the rotation is rather iffy after the wonderful and dreamy Cole Hamels. Brett Myers is Philadelphia's answer to Oliver Perez, Jamie Moyer is old and though he had a solid year last year, I don't think we can count on that again. The bullpen is also a question mark in my mind. Brad Lidge is definitely solid, but missing JC Romero for 50 games will hurt and Ryan Madson was the only one of the bunch who didn't pitch over his head last year. The lineup will take a hit without Pat Burrell, but (questionable) acquisition Raul Ibanez could see an improvement due to moving to a hitter's park. The middle infield combination the Phillies have could be the best overall in all of baseball--both Rollins and Utley are good fielders and very good hitters, especially considering their positions. Ryan Howard looks to be in a decline, but he's still a good hitter and should still flourish in that small park. The third base situation will be interesting this year and could be solved by a platoon--Feliz vs. lefties and Dobbs vs. righties. Anyway, the Phillies potent offense should be able to fend off the division foes.

Player to Watch: Cole Hamels. Last year, the lanky lefty established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball and the fact that he didn't receive any Cy Young votes is sickening. Look for him to continue his stellar rise to the top of the N.L. pitching ranks.

2.New York Mets The Mets will once again finish in second in the NL East, but this year, they'll snag the NL's Wild Card berth. They could probably win the two other divisions in the NL, but I don't think they can outhit the Phillies. Their rotation is also a much bigger question than Philadelphia's. After Johan Santana, it gets pretty thin. Oliver Perez is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in baseball form, John Maine is coming off an injury and his ERA/WHIP have both moved in the wrong direction the last three seasons. Mike Pelfrey has some promise, but a shaky K/BB last year (1.72) and a huge innings increase are indicators of possible struggles to come. The Mets did, however, do one thing right this offseason: they improved their unreliable bullpen by acquiring J.J. Putz in a trade with the Mariners and signing Francisco Rodriguez to sure up the back end. These are good moves, but with a shaky starting rotation, will an improved bullpen really matter? The Mets also didn't do enough to bolster their lineup. Bernie Madoff must've really screwed the Wilpons because their absence from the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes if he didn't would've been inexcusable. They're left side of the infield is good in terms of offense (David Wright will go down as the best position player in Mets history. Book it.) and Carlos Delgado is reliable, but without a second big bat in the outfield, I don't think the Mets can keep up with Phils and their run scoring.

Player to Watch: Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod, possibly the most overrated pitcher in all of baseball, is joining a new team and a new league. Despite setting a new record in saves, Rodriguez is coming off his second worst K/9 year (2003), his worst K/BB year, and his second worst FIP year (2003). While he's an improvement over the injured Billy Wagner, I don't think Rodriguez is going to be the savior Mets fans are hoping for.

3.Atlanta Braves If the Braves had added another good bat (Adam Dunn rather than Garrett Anderson), I would've picked them to win the division. With Javier Vasquez, new addition Derek Lowe, and young up and comer Jair Jurrjens, the Braves have the best starting rotation in the NL East. However, they just don't have the offense to keep up with the Mets and Phillies. Chipper Jones is probably the best switch hitter since Mickey Mantle, but he just can't stay healthy. His only real offensive compliment is Brian McCann and the two of them will not be able to carry the team to anything more than a third place finish. Their pitching will keep them in the race, but the Braves will not be able to score enough runs to make the playoffs.

Player to Watch: Jeff Francoeur. His power has been dipping every year since his third place ROY finish in 2005 and he still isn't able to take a walk (career OBP: .312). After an embarrassing demotion to the minors last year, Francoeur needs a bounce back in a big way. If he can hit like he did in '05 (or even '07) the Braves might make the race for the NL East a little closer. If not...well, there'll be another playoff-less year in Atlanta.

4.Florida Marlins The Marlins were a surprising third place finisher in the NL East in '08, but this year, I don't think they'll quite get there. In Miami, there just isn't enough on either side of the ball--Ramirez and Uggla are great hitters but that's about it. The pitching after Ricky Nolasco isn't enough either. Fourth place is all the Marlins will muster in '09.

Player to Watch: Ricky Nolasco and Cameron Maybin. After the All-Star break, Nolasco posted a 3.12 ERA in 109.2 innings while striking out 113 and walking only 13. This guy's gonna turn some heads this year. As for Maybin, I was in attendance at Yankee Stadium when he hit his first career homer against Roger Clemens so I've got an attachment to Maybin...sort of. Anyway, he's a highly touted prospect who came over in the Miguel Cabrera deal with Detroit and should get some serious Rookie of the Year consideration in the National League. While Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla turned the heads of fans towards Miami, Nolasco and Maybin will have them looking twice.

5. Washington Nationals What can I say about this team? They signed Adam Dunn, so that makes them an instant favorite in my book, but aside from that...I don't know what they can do aside from finish in last place. There isn't much offense and there isn't much pitching. Good luck, Washington. You'll need it.

Player to Watch: Adam Dunn and Elijah Dukes. Dunn is moving to a new stadium and a new division, so we'll have to see if he can continue his streak of 40+ homers. Elijah Dukes projects to go .263/.373/.462 via CHONE. If he can do that, the Nats will have a star in the making.

Next: The AL West.

A Little Bit of Everything

2009-03-14T20:27:00.002-04:00

Spring Training NotesFirst off, I watched my second Spring Training game today as the Yankees defeated the Astros, 3-1. The best part of this game was definitely A.J. Burnett's four spectacular innings of work to start the ball game. He pitched a perfect four frames while striking out three. What was most impressive and encouraging about the performance was with how little effort Burnett seemed to be throwing, despite radar gun readings that had his fastball sitting at 93-96. His accuracy was incredible as he worked the corners deftly and his breaking ball looked as sharp as it would in mid-season.

At the plate today, the Yankees didn't do too much. Johnny Damon's laser of a home run was really the only highlight. The other half of the split squad game, the one I wish was televised, was much more offensive minded. Both Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero hit home runs, the latter's being a grand slam. Every Yankee fan ought to keep a sharp eye on these two, as they are a huge part of the future of the New York Yankees.

In other ST news, Robinson Cano and Damaso Marte returned from the WBC with injuries that appear to be minor, but I'm cautious, as I am with any Yankee injury. Is the WBC to blame? Probably not wholly, but I still don't like the tournament for a variety of reasons. The first is that it simply takes away time players should have with their club teams. Second is that it's far too early for a playoff-like atmosphere. Third, I just don't like it when sports have to act as a veil for petty nationalism--this applies to the Olympics as well. If it's really all about the sport, why do the teams have to be national ones? If I had my way, I'd eliminate the WBC altogether. Despite that, though, I realize it's here to stay and is a good concept. Changes, however, should be made.

The timing is not one of those changes, despite the fact that it is poor. However, March is the lesser of a multitude of timing evils. Putting it mid-season would be moronic, as would putting it post-playoffs. What I would change is the teams. Instead of the teams being countries, they would be the winners of that country's league, meaning this year the US would've sent the Phillies to the WBC, Japan would've sent NPB's champion, and so on. I think this would give the world a much stronger idea of who baseball's best country is. Of course, there are pitfalls to this solution as well. Do we really think the Italian league champs would stand a chance against the Phillies? The teams also change year to year, what with free agent acquisitions and trades and what not, but whatever. It's still more entertaining to me than watching petty nationalism played out on a baseball field. This also may hurt the team's chances to mix younger players into the Spring Training fold due to the season-like atmosphere, but they could probably find time against the lesser teams. This idea isn't much better than the current WBC, but I think it's still an improvement. Either way, the WBC sucks.

UConn Basketball Six fuckin' overtimes. I stayed up for the whole damn thing and they lost. I was furious. I hate Syracuse. Jim Boehiem's alright but the players and the team itself, forget 'em. There is no one in college basketball I hate more than Eric Devendorf and his little eyebrow-pencil looking beard. Anyway, I don't think this hurts UConn's chances at a one or two seed in the Big Dance, but I'm still weary of the team. Losing Dyson really hurt and I think other teams have figured out how to attack Hasheem Thabeet: go right at him and try to out muscle him. UConn has the talent to make it all the way to the Final Four but they do have weaknesses, mostly three point shooting and free-throw shooting as well. If they are going to make a long tourney run, Thabeet will have to toughen up a bit, Adrien will have to regain his scoring form from early in the season, AJ Price will need to keep up the hot three point shooting, and Kemba Walker will have to be, well, Kemba walker. I've said it before and I'll say it again, in 2-3 years, Kemba will be a Player of the Year candidate.

Division Preview Series Part Two: NL Central

2009-03-11T22:09:00.002-04:00

Okay time for part two of my MLB division previews and predictions. This one brings us to the NL Central.

1. Chicago Cubs The Cubs really should win this division running away. They were the best team in the division last year and and adding Milton Bradley is a plus--if he can stay healthy, but more on that later. Mr. Bradley adds to an already solid hitting core of Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto. They dd lose Kerry Wood to the Indians but the addition of Kevin Gregg is a good one and he will anchor the bullpen, along with the impressive Carlos Marmol.

Player to Watch: Milton Bradley. Bradley was the best hitter the Rangers had last year (his home/away splits weren't awful either), but was hurt...again. I like the signing of Bradley for 3/30 but his health is an obvious question. He's only played 100+ games three times in his career so he could leave some Chicago residents disappointed. However, if he's healthy, look for Bradley to mash. He's got great talent and is moving from one good hitter's park to another.

2. St. Louis Cardinals I've got the Cards finishing second to the Cubs, but by a large margin. The offense is pretty much there with Pujols (best player in baseball. Period.) and Glaus, but it has some questions, IMO. Is Ryan Ludwick for real? Can Rick Ankiel get some plate discipline/stay healthy? As for their pitching...meh. Adam Wainwright is solid but he only pitched 20 games. If Wellemeyer and Lohse can repeat what they did last year, they might be able to make it closer with the Cubs.

Player(s) to Watch: Albert Pujols is one. He's one of those guys that I'm gonna be harping on when I'm 87, telling my grandkids that no one could hit the ball like King Albert. In non obvious land, Ryan Ludwick will be another to watch. Ludwick raked last year but is it a case of late blooming or just a fluke?

3. Cincinnati Reds I like the Reds to finish third, but they could challenge the Cardinals for the second spot with solid pitching. Edinson Volquez is a stud, Johnny Cueto has a year of ML pitching under his belt and is incredibly talented, it's doubtful that Aaron Harang is as bad as he was in 2008, and Bronson Arroyo should be better than he was in '08 as well. Their offense is pretty crappy, though. Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion provide good offense on the corner infield spots, but after that...not so much. Ramon Hernandez is decent behind the plate but nothing too special, and the middle infield probably won't produce much, either. Jay Bruce will be the best offensive player on a team that will miss my boy Adam Dunn's bat, no matter how much Dusty Baker hates walks.

Player to Watch: Jay Bruce. I told some fellow fans at the June 20th game who had not heard of Jay Bruce that he could be one of the best players in baseball in five years. This year is the first step towards that. Bruce has 30 homer power and 2009 will probably be the first of his many trips to the All-Star game.

4. Milwaukee Brewers The Brewers have no starting pitching and not much offense after Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. The off-season hurt the Brew Crew the most, as they lost both CC Sabathia (woo!) and Ben Sheets, their two best pitchers. Yovani Gallardo is great, but he's not Sabathia or Sheets and I don't think he can hold down the rotation by himself.

Player to Watch: Yovani Gallardo. This young guy is a stud and should, despite being on what projects to be a bad team, get some awards consideration. Coming off an injury and a shaky playoff performance, look for Gallardo to bounce back and become a dominant starter.

5. Houston Astros At the plate, they've got (the incredibly underrated) Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. On the hill, they've got Roy Oswalt. Things are not too bright in Houston.

Player to Watch: Lance Berkman. Berkman has a career line of .302/.413/.560 and has finished in the top 5 of MVP voting in 4 different seasons, yet he is rarely mentioned as one of the top players in the game. He is definitely the second best second baseman in baseball, right behind Pujols and right ahead of Mark Teixeira.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates I'm not gonna lie--I do not know much about this team, but there really is not much to say about them. The only thing they can do is hope for lightning in a bottle and pull a D-Rays. Ryan Doumit and Mike Francesa's favorite, Nate McLouth are probably the lone bright spots in Pittsburgh, who will once again finish in the cellar.

Player to Watch: Andy LaRoche. Once considered a top prospect, LaRoche has essentially fallen off the face of the earth. It'll be interesting to see if he can start to develop into the player everyone once thought he would be.

The Lineup, Sans A-Rod

2009-03-09T20:37:00.002-04:00

Hey everybody. It was a stressful week last week, what with a full load for school and the A-Rod mess, so I'm glad to be on Spring Break!

Anyway, A-Rod had his surgery today and is already rehabbing. Regardless of that, he'll still miss 6-9 weeks of action. I've already detailed how I'd design the lineup with A-Rod, now I'll give my take for the lineup without A-Rod.

The likely replacement for Alex Rodriguez is Cody Ransom, so I'll plug him into this lineup. I'm also assuming that Nick Swisher will win the starting right field job, because, well, I'm the President of the Nick Swisher fan club and that Brett "Slugger" Gardner will be the starting centerfielder.

vs. RHP

1. Damon, LF
2. Jeter, SS
3. Swisher, RF
4. Teixeira, 1B
5. Matsui, DH
6. Posada, C
7. Cano, 2B
8. Ransom, 3B
9. Gardner, CF

The top two are obvious. Damon and Jeter are going to bat 1/2 no matter who's pitching, no matter who else is injured, whatever. I wish Girardi would swap the two of them, but Damon/Jeter is fine with me. Swisher batting third is iffy considering his down year last year, but I think he could be a good 3 hitter for the Yanks. He's incredibly patient and has some good pop. It's the former that would be good for the three whole--he could provide a hell of a lot of RBI chances for Tex batting in the cleanup spot. Some people have been suggesting Cano at the top of the order but until he learns some patience, I don't want him up that high, regardless of the pop in his bat. Ransom really ain't a great hitter, so sticking him in the eighth spot makes sense. I just hope he can hit at replacement level for the month that Rodriguez is on the DL. Gardner's potential on base and stealing skills profile him at the top of the order, but until his skills show up, he's better suited at the bottom of the order as a "second leadoff" type of guy.

vs. LHP

1. Damon, DH
2. Jeter, SS
3. Swisher, RF
4. Teixeira, 1B
5. Nady, LF
6. Posada, C
7. Cano, 2B
8. Ransom, 3B
9. Gardner, CF

Nady should be the DH vs. lefties. He hits them better than Hideki Matsui and playing him against lefties gives Matsui time off to rest his knees. I'd like to hit Posada over Nady because of his superior skills all around, but Nady hits lefties just as well as Jorge. The rest of the lineup is the same so no explanation needed there.

Anyway, that's it for now. I'll be back later this week for the second installment of my Division Preview Series with the NL Central. Have a good one and get better soon, Alex!

Division Preview Series Part One: NL West

2009-03-06T20:02:00.003-05:00

Hey everyone! With Spring Training started, I'm gonna put up my division previews and predictions. I'm gonna do this at least once a week, starting tonight with the NL West and ending with the AL East. So, without further ado....

1. LA Dodgers: Officially getting Manny Ramirez back pushes the Dodgers over the edge. Though they lost Derek Lowe, they brought in the aforementioned Manny, along with Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf. Takashi Saito is also out, but young flamethrower Jonathan Broxton can easily fill his role as the closer. Chad Billingsley will anchor the rotation, along with youngster Clayton Kershaw. Though a pitching edge could be given to the Giants, the Dodgers will surely have the edge on offense with Manny, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Russell Martin, and Andre Ethier.

Player to Watch: Clayton Kershaw. Despite giving up a few too many hits and walks (9.11 H/9 and 4.35 BB/9), the young lefty put up a very good 8.36 K/9. Kershaw was only twenty years old last year and those are pretty damn good numbers considering his age. The spotlight will be on him big time this year, as he'll have to be the team's #2 to Billingsley.

2. SF Giants: Coming in second place in the relatively weak NL West will be the Giants. The Giants are going to do this with pitching, not hitting. Their hitting is incredibly weak, but their pitching is surprisingly strong. They've got defending Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, the very solid Matt Cain, young Jonathan Sanchez, soon-to-be-300 game-winner Randy Johnson, and...Barry Zito. That's a great rotation and they would win this division if they had just a slightly better lineup.

Player to Watch: Jonathan Sanchez. Though he still didn't put up great numbers last year (5.01 ERA, 1.449 WHIP), Sanchez has 252 strikeouts in 250 innings of MLB ball and the ERA and WHIP tallies were improvements on his '07 numbers. With a high strikeout rate like that, I'd say this is the year Sanchez catches on and shows big time improvement.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks: The young up and comers will only mange to come up to third in 2009. After the overlooked Haren and the overrated Webb, I'm just not sure if their pitching can do it. Can Scherzer, Davis, and Garland complement them well enough? They've also got bullpen concerns after losing Juan Cruz, but Chad Qualls could pick up the slack. The lineup is powerful but they've got too many strikeouts without enough walks.

Player to Watch: Justin Upton. It's going to be fun to watch his continuing development at such a young age. He and I graduated high school in the same year ('05). Yikes.

4. Colorado Rockies: The team I thought would win the division in '08 will probably finish fourth this year. They lose their best player in Matt Holliday, Todd Helton is a year older, Garrett Atkins has been in a steady decline, and Jeff Francis is out for the year. However, giving Ryan Spilborghs a chance to have a full time job in center will help them, as it takes away PAs from the now gone Wily Taveras, and Brad Hawpe is usually reliable. On the pitching side, there isn't too much to get excited for. The Rockies will have to hope for improvement from Ubaldo Jimenez, who will now be the team ace. Getting Huston Street in the bullpen could help, along with more development from Manny Corpas.

Player to Watch: Dexter Fowler. A member of the US's bronze medal winning baseball team, Fowler is a bright spot for the Rockies' future as he could be a contender for NL Rookie of the Year.

5. San Diego Padres: Adrian Gonzalez is their lone bright spot offensively, now that Brian Giles has lost pretty much all of his power. Despite all the rumors of being traded, Jake Peavy should still produce at a high level and a healthy Chris Young will help the rotation, but it won't be nearly enough to make the Padres even decent. This last place thing could be a multi-year theme for the Padres.

Player to Watch: Adrian Gonzalez. If this guy played in an even halfway decent hitter's park, he'd be a household name. Sadly, he's stuck in the cavernous PETCO Park and could forever be underappreciated.

Well, that's my prediction for the NL West. We'll see come October, right?

Games Have Started!...and Manny

2009-02-27T11:31:00.002-05:00

I'll keep this one short, since I have to go to class in five minutes:

So games have started. That is incredible. Despite not watching them, I can feel the excitement coursing through my veins. Real baseball is inching closer and closer an I could not be more excited.

Jorge, Brett, and A-Rod have all hit homers. Do they matter? Not at all. Do I care that they don't matter? No, I don't. It's always encouraging to see guys hitting well in baseball.

Then there's Manny. He rejected the Dodgers latest offer. Ugh. I don't know what he and Boras think they're going to get but...it's not out there. But, that doesn't mean the Dodgers should just stop trying. I mean let's be honest here, they're probably pissed off at Manny. But at the same time, do they really want to go into '09 penciling in "Juan Pierre" in the lineup card instead of "Manny Ramirez"?

Anyway, I'll leave you with some of my favorite baseball themed quotes:

I see great things in baseball. It's our game - the American game. It will take our people out-of-doors, fill them with oxygen, give them a larger physical stoicism. Tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set. Repair these losses, and be a blessing to us. ~Walt Whitman

With those who don't give a damn about baseball, I can only sympathize. I do not resent them. I am even willing to concede that many of them are physically clean, good to their mothers and in favor of world peace. But while the game is on, I can't think of anything to say to them. ~Art Hill

Poets are like baseball pitchers. Both have their moments. The intervals are the tough things. ~Robert Frost

It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. ~A. Bartlett Giamatti, "The Green Fields of the Mind," Yale Alumni Magazine, November 1977

Baseball is an allegorical play about America, a poetic, complex, and subtle play of courage, fear, good luck, mistakes, patience about fate, and sober self-esteem. ~Saul Steinberg

and my favorites:

"Baseball? It's just a game. As simple as a ball and a bat, yet as complex as the American spirit it symbolizes. It's a sport, a business, and sometimes even a religion." --Ernie Harwell

"The one constant through all the years has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers, it's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But baseball has marked the times. This field, the game is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that was once good...and could be again." --"Field of Dreams."

Play ball, boys. Play ball.

Play ball, boys. Play ball.

BA's Top 100 Prospects

2009-02-24T11:29:00.002-05:00

Baseball America released its list of the top 100 prospects in baseball.

Only three Yankees made the list. Austin Jackson came in at #36,(the) Jesus Montero came in behind him at #38, and Andrew Brackman was rated #92. The list put AJax's ETA at 2009, which I agree with. I think he'll definitely get a cup of coffee towards the end of the year in '09, unless of course the Yankees are in a tight race. They estimate Montero to come up in 2011, which I also agree with. He's gotta get some time to develop, especially at something higher than the South Atlantic League. Brackman, the team's first round pick in 2002 will finally make his debut in pro baseball this season after having surgery that shelved him for all of last year, save for the Hawaiian League. His ETA is 2010. If AB can make it to the Bronx by 2010, color me incredibly excited.

All three of these guys represent a future need for the Yankees. Jackson projects to be an average to above average hitting CF with good defense, something the Yankees need.

Jesus Montero, granted he can stay at catcher, and I think he should, will be the next version of Jorge Posada; he may not be great with the glove, but his bat will be very advanced for his position. This argument has left many people to rate Montero lower than his talent and skill merits. Unless Montero is absolutely awful behind the plate, he should stay there. If his defensive skills have the ceiling of those of Mike Piazza or Jorge, he should stay there. His bat is not nearly as valuable to the Yankees in the future any where else.

Andrew Brackman is a starter. The Yankees--and the other 29 teams--always need starting pitching.

Centerfield

2009-02-19T11:20:00.004-05:00

So, who should be the centerfielder for the Yankees come April? As of right now, it's obviously up in the air and Spring Training will feature a battle between Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera. So what are the pros and cons of these guys?

Melky took a big hit last year, hitting .249/.301/.341/.641, with a pathetic .285 wOBA. His defense was average, though, as he posted a 0.9 UZR/150 in center, up from -12.5 in 2007. Regardless, there are still a ton of questions for Cabrera: can he hit like he did in 2006? Can he show some plate discipline? Can he start taking better routes to the ball? Can he improve his range? Coming into 2009, the Melk Man has a lot to prove to the Yankees. The last question is, can he do this? Maybe. While it's incredibly unlikely that Melky is anything better than his 2006 season (.752 OPS, .333 wOBA), he can easily match those numbers again. CHONE projects him to post that same .333 wOBA this year, while playing -3 defense in center. The way the Yankees stack up offensively, they could easily survive Melky's hitting at the bottom of the order and probably overcome his below average centerfield defense (granted Damon plays strong defense in left and Swisher gets placed over Nady in right).

Then there's my boy Brett Gardner. He was a weak hitter but a great runner and defender with the Yankees, tallying 13 steals and only 1 CS while posting a ridiculous 66.3 UZR/150 in center. We've got to take that with an incredible grain of salt, though, because of the small sample size (160.2 innings). Gardner's got great upside as a slap hitting, on base-getting, base stealing, good defending CF, which I would be fine with. There's always the chance that what we saw in late 2008 is what we're going to get. Gardner does, however, have a history of struggling with a level the first time he plays there so there could be some improvement from him in 2009. CHONE projects him to have a .341 OBP and a .318 wOBA, the latter of which is lower than Melky Cabrera. However, CHONE projects Gardner to be +5 in centerfield, an 8 run improvement over Cabrera. As for stolen bases--speed is one of Gardner's biggest pluses--Chone projects BG to be 33 out of 42 in steal attempts (78.5%), which I would love. A .341 OBP and 33 steals along with plus defense out of the number 9 hitter? Sign me up please.

If I had my pick, I'd take Gardner because of his defense and his speed. Cabrera may give you a little more at the plate (very little more) but his arm in center does not do enough to make up for Gardner's range. I'm not a huge fan of stealing but Gardner projects to be over the "break even" point of 75% and those steals at the bottom of the order could lead to more RBI chances for Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter at the top of the lineup.

I wish both Melky and Gardner luck in Spring Training. May the best man win!

The Lineup

2009-02-18T16:31:00.002-05:00

Both Pete Abraham and River Avenue Blues touched on the lineup for the upcoming season, so I thought I'd throw my two cents in.

According to Mr. Abraham, Girardi will "likely...hit Tex third and A-Rod fourth." This is something I disagree with. If I'm General Girardi, I hit Rodriguez third and Tex fourth. For starters, Rodriguez is the better hitter and should get more plate appearances and putting him third gives him about 20 more PAs over the course of the season. Second, while I'm not a huge believe in "protection" or whatever, I believe that batting Teixeira behind Rodriguez would be smarter and more effective than batting Matsui behind Rodriguez, as would probably be the case if A-Rod batted cleanup.

Not to pick on Joe, I've got a disagreement with RAB, as well. The author of the post, Joe, suggests batting Robinson Cano fifth so the top five would look the same regardless of who had an off day, be it Posada, Swisher, Nady, or Matsui. Personally, I'm not a fan of Cano batting third because of his lack of patience. I just don't think a guy who's basically making a hit or making an out when he gets to the plate should be batting fifth, regardless of his power potential.

Joe also touches on lineup splits and here's my thought on those. I don't really think Nady's going to continue his hot hitting ways against right handers, so I'd like him to play primarily against left handers. And though Matsui's platoon splits aren't as pronounced as Nady's, for his health's sake, I'd prefer him to play mostly against righties. I'm the president of Team Swisher so I obviously want him playing full time, and I believe he will be the full time starter in right. So, how would I put together the lineup if I'm Joe Girardi? Here:

v. RHP:
1. Johnny Damon LF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Alex Rodriguez 3B
4. Mark Teixeira 1B
5. Hideki Matsui DH
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Nick Swisher RF
8. Robinson Cano 2B
9. Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner CF

v. LHP:
1. Damon DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Rodriguez 3B
4. Teixeira 1B
5. Nady LF
6. Posada C
7. Swisher RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera/Gardner CF

The v. LHP lineup is somewhat different, but I have my reasons. It gives Hideki Matsui a full day off and Johnny Damon a half day off, to rest his knees and shoulder. Nady's not the strongest fielder in all the world, but he has a 2.1 UZR/150 in left over his career. He's also a great hitter against lefties, so it gives him a chance to get some starts.

Obviously, this could all change very quickly depending on injuries and early season performances, but hopefully Joe Girardi is reading this and gets a bright idea or two from it. That's all for today. Thanks for reading!

Much Ado About Nothing

2009-02-17T10:43:00.003-05:00

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. School and life are busy and there really isn't much baseball news going on.

There's the A-Rod press conference today, but I'll be in class when it starts (Women in 20th Century Literature) and probably when it ends (Spanish and Latin American Film). Honestly, I couldn't care less about the whole damn thing and I hope this is the end of the issue...but I know better. Maybe this will end it for Spring Training but as soon as the season starts, we'll hear the "A-Roid" chants on the road and the boos at home and the whole can of worms will be re-opened. My first reaction to everything was not anger, but rather disappointment. At this point, though, I'm way past caring about the PED issue in baseball. I am, however, pissed off that the NFL essentially gets a free pass on the same issue, but whatever.

In legit baseball news, there are some things I'll touch on.

1. This is ridiculous. If anything like this happens, the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Braves--and any team that had to give up a draft pick--should go absolutely nuts on MLB.

2. Ken Griffey appears to be headed to the Braves. This is good news for Yankee fans (especially me) because it means the Nady and/or Swisher to the Braves talks will die. Keeping both on the roster provides depth and insurance. We all know how big my man crush on Nick Swisher is; hell, I named one of my fantasy teams "Swisher's Biggest Fan."

3. After watching bits and pieces of that Baseball Tonight special on Sunday night, I have made it my goal to watch as little BBTN as possible this season. This is for a few reasons: a) I first tuned in when they were talking about the Rays. They listed Pat Burrell as a new acquisition (I think this is a great move) and they listed his BA (.250) and HR (33) totals next to his name. When will ESPN, the "Worldwide Leader in Sports" catch up with the times and stop using BA/HR/RBI as their "Holy Trinity?" Ugh. b) John Kruk and Buck Showalter both agreed that Joba Chamberlain should be in the bullpen, citing a few tired arguments. The first, by Kruk, was that Mariano Rivera won't pitch forever and the Yankees will need someone to close when he is gone. This just shows that the people at ESPN do absolutely no research. At all. There is someone being groomed for the future closer's job. His name is Mark Melancon. He will put an end to this stupid Joba to the bullpen debate. The second "argument," agreed upon by both Showalter and Kruk, is that Chamberlain can pitch in 60-70 games out of the bullpen rather than 25-30 as a starter, and thus "impact more games." This is dumb. If Chamberlain's a reliever, he'll pitch 1-2 innings a game. That way, he's only impacting 1/9 to 2/9 of a ball game. As a starter, he's impacting 5/9 to 7/9 of the game. Which is more valuable? If you say it's the former, that's like saying 2 quarters are worth more than 1 dollar because there's 2 of them, as opposed to 1 of the dollar. Anyway, it's just clear that the guys at ESPN have some work to do. Baseball Tonight is good for one thing--showing us highlights and getting interviews. In the words of Austin Powers, analysis is not their bag, baby.

3. In the Joba vein, there's this article by Joel Sherman in the New York Post. In honor of the fallen Fire Joe Morgan, I'm going to try and shred this post.

2. When it comes to Chamberlain's long-term role a question that is often asked is what is more valuable: 70 innings or 200 innings? I think that is a misleading talking point by those who want Chamberlain to be a starter.

No it isn't. 200 innings is usually more valuable than 70. Hell, an average 150 is about the same as a great 80. For a good summary of that article check here.

Now back to the 70/200 matter. You should really ask who is pitching the 70 and who is pitching the 200? For the champion Phillies, Cole Hamels' 227.3 innings were probably more valuable than Brad Lidge's 69.3, but were Jamie Moyers' 196.3. If you told the Red Sox, they could play this season with either Jonathan Papelbon or Josh Beckett, which do you think they would take? It is not a layup.

As someone in the comments pointed out, Moyer (39.7 Pitcher VORP) was more valuable than Lidge (26.5 VORP). Jamie Moyer had a slightly above average season in 2008 and was more valuable than the best reliever in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Moyer was worth 2.6 wins above a replacement player and Lidge was worth 2.2 WAR. So, 196.1 above average innings was worth more than 69.1 godly innings.

As for Boston having to make the choice between Beckett and Papelbon, they'd pick Beckett every time. I'm sure Mr. Sherman meant to say "slam dunk" instead of "lay up" so I'll correct him. It is a slam dunk, dude. Beckett is worth more to the Red Sox than Papelbon.

In those 200-or-so innings for a starter how many would you define as game-on-the-line high leverage? With someone such as Lidge or Papelbon or Rivera, just about every pitch they throw in a season is in a game-deciding moment. That is why the 70/200 thing doesn't work for me. I can just as easily say would you rather have a pitcher impact 60 games (like a reliever) or 30 games (like a starter).

I'd say most of them are game-on-the-line high leverage situations because by the time closers come in, the game is already determined. For this, I'm gonna head to the WPA Calculator. By typing in the situation that would happen at the beginning of the game--no outs, none on, top of the first, visiting team batting and the scored tied--we see that the home team wins 54% of the time, so basically a toss up. Now, I'm gonna put a classic save situation in: top of the ninth, the home team up by one, no one on, no one out. In that situation, the home team wins 86% of the time. As great as Mo is, when he comes in to the game, it's usually already determined.

As for the 60/30 thing, see above. 30 games of even average to slightly above average pitching is better than 60 games of light's out pitching. Hopefully this year, Joba absolutely dominates and shows all the people who think he should be in the bullpen where they can stick it. You don't waste a great talent like Chamberlain in the bullpen. Cashman and Co. have it right.

Dammit.

2009-02-07T14:08:00.001-05:00

Goddammit.

My faith in baseball has sunk to incredible lows.

Chase Wright Trade, the Bench, the Dodgers, More UConn Basketball

2009-02-05T19:11:00.007-05:00

Alright first, I'll touch on the minor trade the Yankees made. They dealt the DFA'd Chase Wright to the Brew Crew for Minor Leaguer Eric Fryer. Fryer raked in the low A South Atlantic League, which is great...but he was old for the league so we'll see how he does moving up a level. I'd assume they're gonna start him for the "regular" A Tampa Yankees as a jump from the Sally League to the Eastern League may be too dramatic.

Fryer doesn't seem to be anything special but getting him for Wright--who is probably the better end of the deal--is better than getting nothing at all, which probably would've happened if Wright passed through waivers. I'll keep an eye on Fryer and Wright throughout the season, and I wish Chase the best of luck in Milwaukee.

The only thing left to look out for on the Yankee horizon is a bench infielder. River Avenue Blues raised the possibility of adding Mark Grudzielanek. I like this idea. Grudzielanek is a solid player who could probably start somewhere else. However, he said himself (via the RAB article) he wants to win, and the market has been D E A D silent on him. Adding him would mean taking someone off the 40 man roster--probably Dan Giese--which I would be fine with. The pitching depth is fine without Danny Boy and the bench is a more pressing issue now.

Next, there's the Dodgers and Manny. Manny rejected the team's one year, $25 million offer after rejecting a 2 year, $45 million dollar deal right after the season ended. At this point, no other market for Manny has surfaced. Brian Cashman, along with Jim Bowden and Omar Minaya, has said that his team will not be in the Manny sweepstakes. That leaves only the Dodgers and the Giants. Albert Pujols wants the Cards to make a play for him, but I doubt that happens.

Basically, there are two things the Dodgers can do: move on or make another offer. What would I do if I were Ned Coletti and company? I'd move on. There are other corner outfield options--Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu--and that money could also be used to bring in another player or two, such as Randy Wolff or maybe even Orlando Hudson, relegating Blake DeWitt to the bench.

By my calculations, Manny will be worth 2.61 Wins Above Replacement in 2009--his -15 defensive projection from CHONE really kills him. Adam Dunn projects to be worth 2 WAR and Orlando Hudson projects to be worth 3.09 WAR. Added together, Dunn and Hudson project to be worth 5.09 WAR, 2.48 more WAR than Manny alone. So, two heads seem to be better than one here, even if the one is one of the best hitters ever. There is also the price issue. Manny will cost anywhere from 20-25 million a year. Right now, the market is so low on Dunn and Hudson that the Dodgers could probably get them both for 10-20 million combined.

Onto UConn basketball. They're the number one team in the land. Woo! I know that doesn't mean much in early February, but UConn is really clicking. They have upcoming tests against Michigan and Syracuse, and the latter will be very tough. Regardless, the Huskies are looking absolutely fantastic and look poised to make a long run.

Sorry for the lack of posts. The semester's just started so I'm still getting into the academic swing of things and as we all know, baseball news is in an incredible lull. Hopefully more will come when Spring Training starts. Anyway, have a good one guys.

-Matt

Thoughts on a Few Things

2009-01-29T11:19:00.005-05:00

With the Yankees seemingly done dealing for the Winter (yeah, right), I'll turn my attention to other things around the sports world for commentary.

The Trouble with Torre

First, there's this Joe Torre mess. If anything, it looks as if his book has tarnished him more than it has tarnished the Yankees. Everyone already knew that baseball clubhouses were a mess and that the Yankees were no exception. However, before this, it seemed that everyone thought Joe Torre was a trustworthy, respectable guy. Chances are, the opinion of most has swayed on this. As a Yankee fan who grew up in the "Dynasty Years," I will always have a softer spot for Joe Torre because he was the manager during the four Yankee world titles. I'm not gonna sit here and say, though, it was all because of him. The Yanks were a playoff team in '95 and were rolling at a .619 clip before the strike in 1994. Joe Torre stepped into the right place at the right time and took the team to the promised land. Now, I also can't say that just anyone could've managed those teams, but I do think Torre gets too much credit for the four WS wins and not enough blame for the two WS losses.

What troubles me most about this is the timing. If Torre wanted to release this book after his tenure with the Dodgers was over, fine. He'd be out of baseball and really wouldn't have anything to lose. By releasing it now, though, and raising all sorts of questions about his trustworthiness, you've gotta wonder what the players for the LA Dodgers are thinking. Torre went into LA with a reputation for being the strong, silent type the players could trust. Now, it doesn't seem that way. If I'm a young player on the Dodgers, I'm a little worried right now about how much I can trust Joe Torre. And if I'm a high paid veteran--Juan Pierre--I'm definitely going to be worried about whether or not I'm gonna be the next guy thrown under the bus.

The Super Bowl

This Super Bowl is a giant "meh" in my eyes. Last year, my Giants were in it and we all know how that turned out. I'd never been more excited for a football game in my life. Now, though, I don't even have a team to root against. At least if the Eagles had made it, I could've rooted hard for them to fall for the Steelers. Now, I don't really care who wins. If the Cardinals win, good for them. They came out of no where and did a great job. They also share a mascot with my high school so that factors in. If the Steelers win, that's cool, too. I like Mike Tomlin and I think the Rooneys are a pretty classy family. I'll be at my girlfriend's house for the game and to be honest, I'll probably be more interested in the fried zucchini and buffalo chicken dip she and I are making than in the game. But for shits and giggles, here's my prediction: Arizona 24 Pittsburgh 23. Arizona wins it on a late fade route from Warner to Fitzgerald--shades of Manning to Burres last year.

UConn Basketball

As a UConn student, I love how well the basketball team is playing right now. Before the season started, I thought they had a chance to make a serious run at the National Championship, and now I believe that even more. Jeff Adrien is playing his usual beastly basketball, AJ Price is shooting lights out from three point land, and Jerome Dyson is a fucking walking highlight reel. Hasheem Thabeet is once again dominating on the defensive end and on the glass, but I think his offense needs to see a little more aggression, especially if he's going to make it at the next level. Too many times I've seen him go up for a lay in instead of jamming it home like he should. His hands are still a little rough, too and he has a tendency to forget how tall he is. There are times when he plays like he's 6'3" instead of 7'3." However, I'd obviously like to have him instead of not. Lastly, I'll touch on freshman Kemba Walker. He is a damn exciting player and in two to three years, he will be a National Player of the Year candidate. Book it. GO HUSKIES.

Andy Pettitte Gets a One Year Deal

2009-01-26T18:01:00.004-05:00

So, our long national nightmare is over. Andy Pettitte has signed a one year deal worth a guaranteed $5.5 million and worth up to $12 million in incentives.

This is another off-season victory for the Yankees as far as I'm concerned. Pettitte, who thought he could pull down a guaranteed $16 million is taking a HUGE pay cut. It's clear he was humbled. Andy said that he wanted to play for the Yankees or no one and he buckled. This off-season has been more than incredibly successful for the Yankees.

They filled their pitching rotation voids with the two best pitchers on the market, patched potential holes left in the offense, and now have solidified their number four spot with someone who is more than capable of doing that job. This also allows Phil Hughes to get some polish and confidence down at AAA. Besides, with fifth starter Joba Chamberlain on an innings limit--around 140-150--Hughes, along with Ian Patrick Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves, will get plenty of opportunities to start for the big ball club in the New Big Ballpark in the Bronx.

This leaves the rotation as:
1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien Ming Wang
3. AJ Burnett
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Joba Chamberlain

That rotation is as strong as any in all of baseball. With an offense that has a potential to score a ton of runs, the Yankees could be looking at a 95-100 win season.

Now, the only thing left the Yankees have to do is get a middle infielder for the bench and maybe get a third catcher. When those two things are the only ones left on your off-season docket, you know you've got a strong team going forward into the season. LET'S GO YANKEES!

A Few Things to Touch On

2009-01-25T12:00:00.006-05:00

First off, tomorrow, the 26th of January, yours truly will have a "Pinch Hitting" piece published on Peter Abraham's blog, so give it a look.

On to more baseball related matters:

It appears that Ben Sheets latest medical reports are much better than they were back in the Winter Meetings. This, apparently, has sparked new interest from a lot of teams. While it looks like Sheets will end up in Arlington, the Yankees may be showing interest in him again.

If they are in fact looking at him again, this gives them much more leverage in the negotiations with Andy Pettitte. If the offer has been upped to $10.5 mil to keep Andy in the Bronx, he'll probably still reject it because in his mind, he still thinks he's worth $16 million. That's just insane. So if Andy's going to be true to his word and come back to NY or retire, discussions with Sheets could light a fire under his ass to make a decision.

Of course, this also gives Ben Sheets a little leverage. Before these reports, Sheets was staring in the face of a one year contract with maybe an option for a second year. Now, he is probably in position to get at least a two year contract. I wouldn't mind giving him a two year contract but I'd prefer a one year deal or a one and an option type deal, but either way Ben Sheets in Pinstripes would be just fine for me.

A one year deal would allow Phil Hughes to move into the rotation in 2010 when I think he'll be fully ready. A two year deal allows Hughes more time to develop. I don't like the idea of starters in the bullpen, but early in a career, it could help. Just look at how it worked out for Johan and Pedro. They turned out just fine.

Now I'll turn my attention to other teams, for variety's sake.

The Mets, though their bullpen is improved, still need to add a corner OF. The price tag on Adam Dunn has apparently dropped. The Mets should make a serious play at him, even if it's a one year deal. If the Mets signed Adam Dunn, their 3/4/5 would look like: Beltran/Wright/Dunn. That would easily be the best three through five combination in the NL East now that Pat Burrell has departed for Tampa Bay. Signing Adam Dunn would be a smart move for the Mets...so they probably won't do it (just kidding Mets fans). I still have a pipe dream involving a trade of Xavier Nady and the signing of Adam Dunn....maybe...

Xavier Nady Gets a One Year Deal

2009-01-20T19:54:00.003-05:00

The Yankees have signed Xavier Nady to a one year deal worth $6.55 million.

This probably means that the X-Man will not be traded by the Yankees--at least not before the season starts. This is good for the Yankees because it will provide them with outfield depth. Nick Swisher should still start over Xavier Nady but that's something I've touched on before. The alignment on Opening Day should be Damon/Gardner/Swisher with Matsui as the DH if the pitcher is right handed and Nady if the pitcher is left handed. Nady on the bench means greater flexibility in giving the aging Damon a day off in left field if he needs it or allowing the Yankees to shift Swisher to CF if Gardner starts to stumble too much at the plate. This kind of roster flexibility is going to be something new for the Yankees, even though Joe Girardi juggled the lineup a bit much last year. This time, though, if he does, it will be for good reason and he'll have more than suitable replacements. The infield bench is still looking pretty weak but there's still time for that to be ironed out.

If Nady were a free Agent, he'd be valued at about $7.71 million. That projection comes from using his Marcels offensive projection combined with his CHONE defensive projection, using the same math as my "What's A Player Worth" post. So it appears that the Yankees will be getting a good deal for Mr. Nady, if he lives up to his performance.

And, I've got to talk about it because it needs to be touched on. Today seemed unreal to me. As cliche as it may sound, today was an event four years in the making. From the moment his keynote speech at the 2004 DNC ended, I knew Barack Obama would be President one day--I just didn't think it'd be this soon. The election of a black man to the office of the Presidency is nothing short of historic and monumental. I'm a very cynical person and wasn't sure if the American people could do what they did on November 4th but they did and my faith in a people was restored.

We still have a long way to go in this nation in terms of race relations, but today, the most hopeful I've known in quite some time, we reached a peak. At the risk of sounding silly, I will always remember what I was doing when Chief Justice Roberts swore in Barack Obama: standing in front of my TV in my college apartment, hands on my head, shedding tears of joy because for the first time in years, I've felt hopeful for the future of my country.

Slightly Angry Hall of Fame Rant

2009-01-12T18:36:00.003-05:00

Okay here's my annual Hall of Fame rant.

Bert Blyleven was once again denied access to the Hall of Fame. There's nothing more I can say about this. He must've done something when he was a player to piss off the writers. I was born in 1987 and he retired in 1992 so I don't know much about his career aside from the (outstanding) numbers so if someone could fill me in, that'd be great. I could go on and on with this, but instead, I'll post a link to an article I wrote a while ago at SI's fannation.com about Bert Blyleven's HOF qualifications. Enjoy.

You can check out the rest of the ballot here. Chances are that Jim Rice will finally break through and make it too Cooperstown in his final year on the ballot, and at that point the HOF floodgates should open. Once Rice is in, don’t you have to let Frank Howard, Fred McGriff, Albert Belle, Juan Gonzalez and Will Clark in? I mean, when the best thing you can say about a guy is “he was the most feared hitter of his era” (BBWAA code for “I have no evidence to support my claim”), does that make him Hall worthy? I’m pretty sure Mark McGwire scared the bejesus out of pitchers, so why hasn’t he been let in? He hasn’t been proven guilty of anything. Oh, and how does a guy go from receiving 29.8% of the vote in his first year on the ballot to 72.2% in his 14th year on ballot? How many games did he play in between ballots?

--River Ave. Blues

Jim Rice is not a Hall of Famer.

Whatever. I've really got nothing. I'm sick of the HOF. Rickey deserved it, though, but even that comes with a stain. WHY WAS THIS SELECTION NOT UNANIMOUS?! WHY IS THERE THIS BULLSHIT IDEA THAT NO ONE SHOULD GET 100% OF THE VOTE? Ugh.

Baseball Goings On

2009-01-07T17:18:00.011-05:00

Alright there's a decent amount of stuff to talk about so let's get right to it.

First, there's Andy Pettitte. He seems to have rejected the Yankees one year, ten million dollar contract offer. If I'm Cash, I call his bluff and say "Alright, Andy. You said Yankees or retire. You have the offer. If you want to leave it, fine. Have a nice retired life." The Yankees can definitely live without Andy Pettitte, as I said in my last blog post.

CHONE has projected Andy Pettitte at 9-9, 167 IP, 185 H, 15 HR, 54 BB, 125 SO, 5 HBP, 87 R, 80 ER, 4.31 ERA. That's a decent season. Decent. This would be nice for the Yankees to have, but there is no doubt in my mind that some combination of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, and possibly Phil Coke (who is getting a shot as a starter in Spring Training) could replicate those numbers, or something close to it.

But of course, I'm not Brian Cashman and this decision isn't in my hands. Chances are the Yankees could give Andy a little Yankee-bonus and raise their offer. In fact, according to those very same CHONE projections, Andy is worth 2.3 Wins over Replacement, which according to CHONE, is worth $10.1 million. I'm assuming the organization has this information and that could be why they're not budging. However, I"m more than certain they'd be willing to up the offer to $11 million, to which I wouldn't be opposed. But, I'd rather have them yank the offer off the table.

Next, there's the Jason Giambi signing. I think this move could win the A's the division again. A 3-4 combo of Matt Holliday is probably the best 3-4 combo in the AL West, now that Milton Bradley has left the Rangers for the Chicago Cubs on a three year, $30 million deal--more on that later.

Giambi's deal is for a shockingly low $4.5 million with a $5 million option for 2010. Now, I know Giambi is aging and not what he was when he was first in Oakland or even in New York, but he's worth more than that, IMO.

By my calculations, the same as the ones found here, Giambi will be worth $7.38 million as a DH and $8.33 million as a first baseman. So, like usual, Billy Beane is getting a discount.

On another note with the Giambi signing, for the last few years, every time the Yankees played in Oakland, the (hundreds of) fans in attendance would chant "STEROIDS" while Giambi came to the plate. Every time I would hear this, I would think to myself "Don't these dumb fucks realize that Giambi was taking steroids when he won an MVP in 2000 and was robbed of one in '01?" Morons. They'll start cheering for him again, though; that I'm sure of.

The next thing I'd like to touch on is the signings of Milton Bradley in Chicago and Pat Burrell in Tampa Bay. I think both signings are great for each team. Bradley and Burrell are underrated hitters and the argument could be made that both players were signed uner market value. The only thing holding back Bradley's value is his health. He's only played 140+ games ONCE in his career.

For what it's worth, Bradley projects to be worth $19.14 million next year:

21.7 runs above average - 7.5 (corner OF pos. adjustment) + 5 (corner def. projection)/10.5 (runs per win) + 2 (replacement level adjustment) x 5 (millions of dollars, value of win)

So the Cubs are definitely getting a huge discount on Mr. Board Game (lame joke, I know.).

As for Burrell, he made $14 million last year alone. Now, he's signed a two year, $16 million contract with the Rays. That's $8M a year. Burrell just took a $6M pay cut. Damn. Burrell's value this year projects to be worth $10.57 million in 2009. The Rays just made another great move after trading Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce.

What does all of this have to do with the Yankees? Directly, not much; they're not in the market for a corner outfielder. However, indirectly it matters. Burrell and Bradley getting relatively below market-rate contracts for their services means that Brian Cashman anticipated the market tremendously when he didn't offer arbitration to Bobby Abreu. Abreu would've won way too much money through arbitration than he will probably get through free agency. Bobby Made $16 million in 2008 and his performance was valued at $5 million. This year, in the outfield, he projects to be worth 7.52 million (that -11 CHONE defensive projection really hurts) and 8 million flat as a DH. Funny, the deal Pat Burrell signed is exactly what Bobby Abreu should get.

Lastly, there's Mark Teixeira. I watched his press conference on Tuesday and was absolutely pumped. Tex seems genuinely elated to be here and I cannot wait for him to hit the field in pinstripes. Like he said, we should all go give his wife Leigh a big hug for convincing Mark to come to the Bronx!

What's Next?

2009-01-04T14:55:00.009-05:00

After locking up the three biggest free agents on the market and trading for Nick Swisher, it would seem that the Yankees are essentially set for 2009. However, there are still holes.

PITCHING

The fact that the one year, ten million dollar contract offer to Andy Pettitte hasn't been rescinded shows that the Yankees aren't quite ready to go to the season with a rotation of Sabathia/Wang/Burnett/Chamberlain/Hughes? Kennedy? Aceves?

So what should be done with Andy Pettitte? The first thing that should be done is that a hard deadline should be made for Pettitte to accept the offer and move on. I'd say give Pettitte two more weeks to decide. If he doesn't accept the offer, then the Yankees should go into the season with the rotation listed above. While it's nice to have an "innings eater" (code for: the guy generally sucks but at least he can throw a lot) on a one year deal who would essentially be keeping Phil Hughes's spot warm, the Yankees can do with out him. His 07 ERA was decent at 4.05 but his 4.54 mark this year and 07/08 WHIPs of 1.426 and 1.412 respectively can be done with out.

OUTFIELD SURPLUS

Next there is the issue of the OF surplus. There is a simple solution to this. Make Brett Gardner the fourth outfielder, play Xavier Nady in left, Johnny Damon in center, and Nick Swisher in right. This would yeild a good amount of runs, defense could be a problem. Of that alignment, Nick Swisher is the only one projected to be a plus defender. While the offense could probably out-slug the defensive issues, that approach hasn't always worked for the Yankees.

Another problem with that alignment is that Brian Cashman has said that Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera will battle for the CF spot in spring training and that neither Swisher nor Damon will be in CF. So, that could eliminate my idea. However, Brian Cashman also said Nick Swisher would be the first baseman going forward, and we all know how that turned out.

But I'm gonna take Brian Cashman at his word and believe that only Brett the Jet and the Melk Man are CF candidates. That leaves us with three outfielders for two spots. Or, two outfielders for two spots. Johnny Damon is a lock in left--he's a great defender there and his bat can still more or less hold up there; after all, he was second on the Yankees in VORP last year.

So who gets the nod in right and what do we do with the odd man out? In my mind, Nick Swisher is the right fielder. He's got a better track record as a hitter and a fielder. Want the numbers to prove it? Okay!

OPS:
Swisher: .805
Nady: .793

wOBA:
Swisher: .347
Nady: .342

ISO:
Swisher: .208
Nady: .178

RC/G:
Swisher: 5.6
Nady: 5.3

Alright you get the idea. As for fielding, the two would be up for the right field job. Swisher has a career UZR/150 of 14.2 in right, compared to Nady's 0.5. Swisher has to be out there in right.

What, then, do you do with Xaiver Nady? My gut reaction is to trade him. But, for the life of me, I can't think of what I'd ask for in exchange and what could be given back. Nady's got the highest value coming off of a career year and would be the easiest to move, but he's in a contract year so would teams really be willing to take him on as a rental? Maybe, maybe not.

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense for the Yankees to keep Nady on. Now, he's not great, but he's definitely better than a bench outfielder, especially with one of Gardner or Cabrera already there. So what I suggest is a platoon between him and Hideki Matsui at DH. Nady absolutely crushes lefties and is 'meh' against right handers for his career and this platoon could help Matsui stay healthy. Keeping Nady also allows for more off days for Damon when he needs to take one as he's no spring chicken.

THE BENCH

Then there's the issue of the bench. Jose Molina's definitely the backup catcher, with new acquisition Kevin Cash waiting if he or Posada gets hurt. One of Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner will be on the bench as an outfielder obviously, and probably one of Swisher or Nady. However, there doesn't seem to be anyone who can fill the middle infield positions or third if need be. Who can do that job? There were rumblings that Justin Christian was being converted to infield but I haven't heard anything of that lately. The free agent class for infielders this year isn't all that great either. I really have no idea what they're gonna do here. I'm gonna throw this out there just for shits and giggles: Nomar. I'm not sure if I'm serious about that(EDIT: You know what? Forget that I said that. Just being comical). When I hear more about what the Yankees are doing about the bench, I'll post more seriously about it. Anyway, thanks for reading the essay. As always, feedback is encouraged.

Ramblings on Robbie

2009-01-03T17:07:00.005-05:00

While the chatter has calmed down in the mainstream media, every so often it pops up that the Yankees should consider trading Robinson Cano. Well, this just isn't a very smart. Yes, he had a crappy year last year, but he picked it up in the second half:

First Half: .246/.285/.358/.643
Second Half: .307/.333/.482/.815

Cano is more than capable of putting up those numbers from the second half for an entire season; hell, it looks an awful lot like his 2007 season. So why did Cano have the jump? His BABIP jumped from .252 in the first half to .320 in the second. That big jump led to a lot of hits. Now, that doesn't tell the whole story, of course. Cano had a line drive percentage of 19.4 this season, which is a good mark. He also had the most line drives in his career with 104. However, he also had a career high mark in fly balls at 178 which translated to a career high fly ball percentage of 33.2%.

Based on those numbers, it appears that Cano had trouble getting on top of the ball. When a player hits a fly ball, the chances of it becoming a hit are pretty small. That career high fly ball percentage shows that Cano was probably dipping his shoulders or not driving with his lower half while at the plate. Hopefully, he and Kevin Long have worked this out with a new stance.

Since I'm big on projections and what not, let's see what CHONE has for Robbie in 2009.

.300/.340/.468/.808, 16 HR, 79 RsBI, 29 BB, 65 SO in 556 AB. That's very good for a 2B

Now let's work something out like I did in my last post and project his worth via Marcels batting projections and CHONE defense.

Cano projects to be 4.6 runs over average. Adding the positional adjustment (+2.5), that number goes to 7.1. Cano's CHONE defensive projection, 0, it stays the same. Divide by 10.5 and add 2 for the replacement adjustment and you get about 2.70 Wins Above Replacement. Multiply that by five and that's 13.5. Cano projects to be worth 13.5 million dollars. Cano is being paid $6 million for 2009. That's a big value.

So, yeah, don't trade Robbie. He's good, he's young, and he'll probably easily out play his salary.

What's a Player Worth?

2008-12-30T13:45:00.005-05:00

With the Yankees recent splurge on free agents and trades, there are a lot of people talking about who's overpaid, who's underpaid, responsible spending, irresponsible spending, and the like. For that reason, I'd like to take a look at the Yankees two acquisitions on the offensive side of things: Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira.

To do this, I'll be turning their projected runs above average using Marcels projections for hitters and their CHONE Defensive Projections.

My method will be the same as found on my friend Mike's blog Fire Jim Leyland. For an example of how these calculations work, go to this post. An example:

Lets run through an example. We'll use Curtis Granderson. His RAA in my table comes out at +15.7. His CHONE defensive projection has him at +13 runs. That makes him now at +28.7 runs above average. He gets another 2.5 run boost for being a Centerfielder, which puts his RAA at 31.2. Divide that by 10.5 and you get 2.97 Wins Above Average. Add in another 2, and he becomes 4.97 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. That equates out to being $24.85 million. His 2009 salary is currently just $3.5 million, a difference of $21.35 million -- quite the bargain.

10.5 is roughly the amount of runs that equal one win and the two is used because a replacement player is two runs worse than an average player. To get the dollar amount, you multiply by five (millions of dollars), which is the approximate value of a win The positional adjustments Mike talks about are as follows:

Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second Base/Third Base/Centerfield: +2.5 runs
Left Field/Right Field: -7.5 runs
First Base: -7.5 runs
DH: -17.5 runs

Let's run through the numbers for Mr. Swisher first. On the Marcels spread sheet, we can find that he will be worth 5.8 runs over average. If we want to project Swisher as a corner outfielder, we find his defensive projection on the CHONE site and find that in the corners, Swisher is projected to be a +5 defender. Thus, our equation becomes:

5.8 (runs over average)-7.5 (postiion adjustment) = -1.7+5 (projected defense) = 3.3/10.5 +2 = 2.31 Wins over Replacement. So, as a corner outfielder, Nick Swisher projects to be worth 2.31 Wins over Replacement Player. Multiply that by five to get the dollar amount Swisher's 2008 performance projects to be and you get: $11.55 million dollars. A quick trip over to Cot's MLB Contracts and we find that Nick Swisher will make $5.3 million in 2009. So if Nick Swisher plays to his projection as a corner outfielder, the Yankees are saving $6.25 million on him.

If you want to make Swisher the CF, switch the positional adjustment (+2.5) and the defensive projection (-2) and he comes out at 2.50 wins over replacement, but only because CFs are harder to replace than corner OFs. Still, his dollar value there would be $12.5 mil, a money saver for the Yankees.

Projecting Swisher at first is more or less a moot point because of Tex, but for shits and giggles, he'd be 1.36 WAR, or $6.8 million. Still a "money saver," but less valuable than if he were in the OF.

Now, we come to the big boy. Mark Teixeira. The Yankees just gave him an eight year, 180 million dollar contract, with an AAV of $22.5 million. That's going to be hard for Tex to match, from a standpoint like this. Let's see how it works out. Via the Marcels spreadsheet, Teixeira will be 28.2 runs over average this year. So:

28.2 - 12.5 = 15.7 + 6 (projected runs at 1B) = 21.7/10.5 + 2 = 4.07 WAR x 5 = 20.35. So, Tex's value projects to be $20.35 million this year. According to Cots, Mark will make a flat $20 million this year. So, the Yankees will, in fact, be paying Tex .35 million dollars less than he projects to be worth. It's a small number, but the Yankees are "saving" with Tex.

Lineup Run Scoring Projections

2008-12-17T11:10:00.007-05:00

Using this system, I punched in a few different lineup possibilities for the Yankees to see how many runs they could average per game.

To get the appropriate OBP and SLG numbers, I used the Marcels projections for each player, which can be found on fangraphs.com.

First, let's see how the Yankees would fare if they went to bat with the team they currently have, which would probably mean a lineup of:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That lineup would score an average of 5.455 runs per game. That would be a big improvement over last year's mark of 4.870 runs per game; the total runs scored would be about 884.

But of course, these are the New York Yankees. There's very little chance that no moves will be made and the Yankees will take the field with this lineup in April. My current Free Agent Crush is Adam Dunn, so let's see how a lineup of the following would do:

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn LF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady RF
9. Cano 2B

That team gets an even bigger boost of runs, scoring 5.638 per, which would mean about 913 runs on the season. That's a lot of runs. That total would a) probably out score whatever defensive problems the Yankees may have with that lineup and b) be bolstered by a very good pitching staff.

There have been rumblings of a trade for Mike Cameron in the last few days. What would a lineup with Cameron, and no other acquisitions, look like? Probably this:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cameron CF

The above lineup would score 5.511 runs per game, 892 over the course of the season, which isn't as much as a Dunn inclusive lineup, but is better than a Gardner inclusive lineup.

In the words of Michael Keaton's version of Bruce Wayne in the first "Batman" film: "You wanna get nuts?! Let's get nuts!" and say that the Yankees sign Mark Teixeira.

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady LF
9. Cano 2B

This configuration would score 5.689 runs per game, a total of 921. Again, that could out do any defensive problems with Damon in center and would compliment what could be a dominant pitching staff.

"Let's start the insanity," as Jerry Seinfeld might say, and assume the Yankees sign Manny Ramirez. This would likely mean trading Xavier Nady or Hideki Matsui. While moving Nady might be easier, I think the front office would do everything it could to move Matsui instead, as he is older and more expensive. In fact, he could end up platooning with Nady, but either way, we're taking him out of this lineup because the program doesn't allow for platoons.

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Ramirez DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This would score 5.658 runs per game or 916 runs. However, this lineup could be tweaked. It is definitely possible to fit Nady AND Matsui into the lineup, while forcing Gardner out to a bench role. Let's see how that would play out. This would mean Damon in CF and Manny in left.

1. Damon CF
2. Jeter SS
3. Ramirez LF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Nady RF
9. Cano 2B

This permutation would average 5.713 runs per game, which would mean 925 runs in 162 games, which is the best result of any I've calculated so far. 925 runs is a lot. A whole lot.

So it would seem that from an offensive standpoint, signing Ramirez and benching Gardner while keeping Matsui and Nady in would yield the most runs for the Bronx Bombers in 2009. Of course, we'll just have to sit back and watch what Cash and his crew do in the next month or so.

CC and AJ

2008-12-16T13:20:00.002-05:00

Well, I guess I've got a lot to talk about. Sorry for the prolonged absence, finals were no fun. But, I'm pretty sure I passed them all so, on to baseball.

Let me just say I'm absolutely thrilled with the two signings the Yankees have made. The years for both guys may be a little too long, but the fact that CC has an opt out clause actually makes it a decent contract. If CC does leave in three years, it'll be good for the Yankees because it will most likely mean that CC has pitched well enough to think he can get money somewhere else, which means the Yankees will likely have been a successful team. In the end, this could be a short term contract favorable for both teams. Also, Felix Hernandez will be a free agent at the end of the three years (he'll only be 26!) so if CC does leave, there could be a suitable replacement. Also at the end of those three years, the Yankees could have many young arms ready to take over.

By then, I think Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will have established themselves as front line starters and Andrew Brackman and Dellin (sp?) Betances will probably be ready to be called up to the Majors an contribute. So if CC does leave, the 2012 Yankee rotation could look like this:

Chamberlain
Hughes
Wang
Burnett
Betances/Brackman

If all goes well, that could be a very formidable rotation.

The AJ Burnett signing may be a little too long, but I can't argue too much with it. He's a power arm with a ton of upside to him. If he gets hurt, which I don't think he will (both Bill James and Marcels projections on fangraphs.com have him going 185+ innings), the Yankees have people who could fill in--Hughes, Aceves, Coke, Kennedy...

But what AJ gives the Yankees is the ability to miss bats. The Yankees have lacked power arms the past few years and it has hurt them a bit. With the additions of Sabathia and Burnett along with Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, the Yankees now have three starters who can consistently miss bats.

There will be more to come this week, including lineup run-scoring projections with Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, and Manny Ramirez. Thanks for reading.

-Matt

Adam Dunn

2008-12-03T10:09:00.003-05:00

River Ave. Blues recently ran a piece about Adam Dunn. It was a great article and got me thinking, again, of what the Yankees would look like with Adam Dunn.

Obviously, I'd like to get Teixeira but with the Angels going hard after him, I think it's time for the Yankees to take a long hard look at Adam Dunn.

You can pencil him in for 40 homers and 100 walks a year. That type of production is absolutely great for the Yankees, a patient, power hitting team. Dunn goes deep into counts and takes balls deep as well. As an added bonus, he's a lefty, and we all know what power hitting lefties can do in Yankee Stadium.

Of course, slotting Dunn into the lineup is much easier said than done. How could the Yankees fit him in when there's already a bunch of OF/DH types? Dunn has a reputation for having a pretty bad glove so my gut reaction is to put him at DH. However, in digging a little deeper, I found that by PMR, Dunn was 0.68 runs above average...so essentially average. He had similar numbers by Baseball Prospectus' FRAR and FRAA systems. So the first lineup scenario could be Adam Dunn in left field, Johnny Damon in center field, and Xavier Nady in right field. The probable batting order with that defensive alignment would be:

1. Damon L CF
2. Jeter R SS
3. Dunn L LF
4. Rodriguez R 3B
5. Posada S C
6. Swisher S 1B
7. Matsui L DH
8. Nady R RF
9. Cano L 2B

That's a pretty kickass lineup if you ask me. There'd be three guys with great eyes in front of Rodriguez, a good left/right balance, and a relatively strong bottom of the order to set the table for the top.

But of course, the nay-sayers will say "nay" to having Adam Dunn play defense.If he were to be a DH, someone would have to get left out of the lineup each day. What could be done then? Well, this may be an unorthodox solution, but I would suggest that Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady essentially platoon at different positions versus different pitchers:

VS RHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher RF
7. Matsui 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

VS LHP
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn DH
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

This is no slight against Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, I just think they could both be better utilized playing in a platoon. This would help save Matsui's aging knees and would allow Nady to do the most damage. Matsui at first might be different, but he said he'd be willing to try and play first if it would help the team. While he's not the worst defensive OF out there, moving down on the defensive spectrum would probably let us see a jump in Matsui's defensive production.

As for Nady, he holds a career .854 OPS versus left handers and only a .770 OPS vs righties. Matsui OPS's .803 vs. lefties, which is a good mark and in the end, I'd be comfortable w/him playing every day, but to save his health, and utilize his career .870 OPS versus right handers, I'd let him play first against righties and rest against lefties.

Of course, there is always the possibility that if Dunn is signed, one of Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, or Hideki Matsui could be traded. The one most likely to be moved is probably Nady. He's coming off a career year, is the youngest, and has the smallest contract. If he were to be moved, Dunn could play right field, with Damon in left and Matsui DHing, with Brett Gardner in center:

1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Dunn RF
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Swisher 1B
7. Matsui DH
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

That wouldn't be a bad lineup at all. The corner OF defense might be a little shaky, but the Yankees could probably live with that, due to increased offense.

So, out of all these lineups I've thrown out there, which one would be the best?
Probably the first one. Johnny Damon in CF might not look too great but he can get the job done. Trust me, the Yankees have made out with bad CF defense before. That lineup also includes both Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, while eliminating a potentially weak link offensively in Brett Gardner. That lineup arrangement could best make up for a lack of outfield defense.

Do I think the Yankees should go hard for Adam Dunn right away? Despite the fact that he'll probably come much cheaper, no. Mark Teixeira should still be the #1 goal for the Yankees offensively. However, the great deal for Nick Swisher and the Angels hot pursuit of Tex makes the prospect of him in Pinstripes somewhat bleak. If the Yankees miss out on Mark Teixeira, they should go full steam ahead for Adam Dunn.

The Pros and Cons of Letting Andy Walk

2008-11-25T23:02:00.010-05:00

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Andy Pettitte is considering following Joe Torre and Don Mattingly to Los Angeles to pitch for the Dodgers if a deal with the Yankees cannot be worked out.

So, what are the pros and cons of letting Andy walk to Los Angeles?

PROS

The first pro would be a first round draft pick:

Update (7:15pm): Before anyone asks, Pettitte is a Type-A free agent, so if he did head to SoCal the Yanks would get the Dodgers first round pick (#17 overall, the second best pick they could possibly get) and a sandwich rounder.

That comes from River Ave. Blues. While a draft pick would likely not have an impact on the team for a few years, a draft pick that high is a luxury the Yankees usually don't have. Take into consideration that the Yankees will most likely get picks from Bobby Abreu and Ivan Rodriguez, not to mention compensation picks for not signing Gerritt Cole and Scott Bittle. Of course, the Yankees could also give away draft picks if they sign CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Ben Sheets, or Derek Lowe, but getting a first rounder and a sandwich pick for Pettitte would not be bad at all.

The next pro is the fact that the Yankees just may not need Andy. As harsh as that may sound, if the Yankees sign CC Sabathia and one of Ben Sheets (yes please), AJ Burnett (I wouldn't mind it one bit), or Derek Lowe (no thanks), Andy Pettitte is probably not necessary. Let's say that happens, the rotation would probably shake out as:

CC Sabathia
Chien-Ming Wang
Ben Sheets/AJ Burnett/Derek Lowe
Phil Hughes
Joba Chamberlain/other guys to keep his innings down (Aceves, Coke? Kennedy, etc)

Pettitte would not be necessary in that rotation. It would be more than fine without him.

The last pro is the fact that Pettitte is probably in decline. His second half last year was, well, bad. Very bad. Is that a sign of things to come? It could be, and all emotion tied to Andy Pettitte (he signed a business card at my mom's old store for me once and he and I share the same birthday), I really think Andy's best days--and even average days at that--are over.

Andy Pettitte could very well hurt the Yankees next year.

CONS

Of course, there's a tails for every heads....The cons of letting Andy Pettitte go are:

1. You know what you're getting out of Andy. It may not be great anymore, but you know he'll probably give you 180-200 of just about league average (or slightly better or worse) pitching. There have only been four seasons in which Andy has pitched less than 200 innings. The way the Yankees rotation could shape up--with youngsters Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain and their "restrictions"--they'll need someone who can eat innings. Pettitte is perfect for that.

2. A "worst-case-scenario" could occur in which all the free-agent dominoes fall away from the Yankees. In that case, the Yankees would need Pettitte. But of course, Andy could shock everyone and jump the gun and sign with the Dodgers. If that happens, fine, the Yankees could look elsewhere. But, what if the other guys choose other options than the Bronx, too? The Yankees rotation could look like this:
Chien-Ming Wang
Phil Hughes
Joba Chamberlain
??
??

Those question marks could be anyone. Phil Coke, Alfredo Aceves, Ian Kennedy, Kei Igawa....That is not good, no matter what the offense may do. Impossible as it may seem, the offense would probably have to score at least 900 runs to keep that pitching staff afloat.

So, what do to with Mr. Pettitte? I don't really have an answer, and I don't think Brian Cashman and the rest of the front office will until the first few free agent signings occur. What CC Sabathia decides will determine where the Yankees go in terms of pitchers and hitters, and I think Andy Pettitte is not in top priority for the Yankees, which I see as something like this:
1. Sabathia
2. Tex
3. Burnett/Sheets/Lowe
4. Centerfield
5. Andy Pettitte

What if...

2008-11-25T16:38:00.004-05:00

The Yankees don't get anyone they want in terms of pitching via free agency? What if CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Ben Sheets all sign somewhere else that isn't the Bronx? What do the Yankees do then?

AVOID JAKE

I think the knee-jerk reaction of everyone will be that they should trade for Jake Peavy. This may sound reasonable considering Peavy's elite status and his relatively reasonable contract. However, there are a few things that I don't like about this (aside from Peavy's no trade clause):

1. He could very well be traded by that time.
2. I don't want to have to give up Phil Hughes and more (read: Austin Jackson) to get him. I know the Padres have said a deal could get done without Hughes, but that's only because the market for Peavy is almost non-existent at this point. If the Yankees were in panic mode, I'm sure the Padres would ask for Hughes in return.
3. If the Yankees didn't trade for the superior Johan Santana last year, why trade for Peavy this year?

Bottom line, I hope the Yankees would stay away from Jake Peavy.

BEEF UP THE LINEUP

The next step would be to bolster the offense, which would make sense and I think should be done regardless of acquiring one of the aforementioned free agent pitchers.

I'm still very much in favor of adding Mark Teixiera, which could allow for some roster flexibility; that move could allow the Yankees to trade either Xavier Nady or Hideki Matsui.

If the former is moved, then Hideki Matsui could stay at DH and Nick Swisher could slide into right, with Tex playing first. I believe this scenario could be plausible because Nady probably has more upside than Matsui right now. He's younger and is coming off a year in which he posted career highs in every offensive category. He slowed down a little bit with the Yankees, but I think he could still be a semi-valuable trade commodity. Maybe I'm just dreaming, but I think Nady and perhaps a B-level prospect or two could fetch Mike Cameron from the Brewers to be a one year stop-gap in center field. That could require some great work via Cashman, though, like in the Swisher deal.

If the latter, Matsui, is moved, I think a few things could happen.

a) Bobby Abreu could be brought back for a 1-2 year deal and would DH to keep his harmful defense on the bench.
b) Adam Dunn could be brought in to DH. His defense isn't as awful as people like to think it is, but I'd still prefer Nady out there.
c) Nady could move back to left and Swisher could play right, with Johnny Damon DH-ing.
d) Bring in Manny Ramirez to DH, Nady would stay in right, and Swisher would be the CF.

Of all these options, C is probably the most likely to happen if Matsui is traded. Option B is what I would want most, though. Inserting a 100 walk/40 HR guy (lefty, by the way) into the Yankees' offense would be a great shot in the arm. The market on Mr. Dunn also seems to be relatively quiet and I think the Yankees could ink him to a very reasonable deal.

I'd like option A, but as much as I love Big Bobby, I feel like he's in a decline. If that were to happen, it would have to be a short term deal, with no more than two guaranteed years.

Option D would be nice, too, since Manny is one of the best right-handed hitters ever. However, I don't think it's very likely. As good as Manny may be, and as much as I'd love to see him in pinstripes, I don't think the Yankees would give him the length in a contract he wanted.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ROTATION?

Here, my friends, is the crux of the problem. If all of these guys fall through, who will be the pitchers for the Yankees come opening day? The prospect of this is made harder to swallow, given Mike Mussina's retirement (more on him at a later date). While I don't think he would've touched what he did in 2008, he'd probably still be serviceable in the rotation.

If those guys aren't going to be in Yankee unis come spring, then Andy Pettitte will surely be.

I think the innings restriction on Joba will still be in effect regardless of free agent moves, but I think w/o those guys, the Yankees will toss Phil Hughes back into the Major League fire. Chien Ming Wang will be around, too, so that's four guys. The Yankees could use Alfredo Aceves as a starter as well, which I would like, along with Phil Coke getting a spot start every so often and probably Ian Kennedy being tried out again (for probably the last time). So what would a "nightmare" rotation for the Yankees look like? Probably something like this:

Wang
Pettitte
Hughes
Joba
Aceves/Coke/Kennedy/lots of guys.

Of course, there's always the possibility of signing another free-agent pitcher who isn't among the "Big Four." Who are some of those possibilities?

Oliver Perez is a possibility. He's young and has shown incredible flashes of brilliance (one of which was on my birthday in 2007. I was there, great game by Ollie) but has also shown more flashes of mediocrity. The Yankees would probably stay away from someone as wild and inconsistent and Ollie.

Brad Penny is another one the Yankees could go for. He's a good pitcher who the market has been essentially silent on. He's 31 like Burnett but also carries the "injury" tag like AJ. He's a long shot that could work out, but I think he would be avoided.

The Yankees could take a flier on Mark Prior but that is also unlikely.

It doesn't seem like there are any FA pitchers out there the Yankees would sign if they missed out on the "Big Four." If that happens, I see the Yankees devoting their money to offense and attempting to slug their way to a playoff berth.

A (Tenative) Lineup for 2009

2008-11-24T11:10:00.003-05:00

Hey, everybody. It's been a while since I posted something, so here goes.

The Replacement Level Yankee Weblog recently ran a post about what the Yankees would look like if the season started today. This means the only move made would be Nick Swisher's acquisition. I don't think that this will be the only move the Yankees make, but if it were, here is how I would arrange the lineup if I were G.I. Joe.

1. Johnny Damon, LF--I guess this one's a no-brainer. Damon's been the leadoff hitter for years now and has done fine, no need to rock the boat. However, Derek Jeter would be a fine leadoff hitter as well, IMO.

2. Derek Jeter, SS--Just like Damon, this is another no brainer. Jeter's always been the two hitter so no real reason to move him. Hopefully, though, he has a bit of a rebound year, especially in terms of power. He could also bat leadoff and Damon could bat second. Either order of the two would be fine.

3. Nick Swisher, 1B--Swisher, like Bobby Abreu but better, has a great batting eye and some pop as well. With him in the three hole, that'd be three guys in a row with good batting eyes to get on base for A-Rod. Swisher has a great combination of pop and patience that a three hitter needs.

4. Alex Rodgriguez, 3B--Does this really need an explanation?

5. Jorge Posada, C--Posada's bat was probably the biggest offensive loss for the Yankees in 2008. Despite his crazy-good 2007, I think we all undervalued how much Posada added to the offense and his presence should help the Yankees offense. I like him for the five hole to bring in A-Rod and whatever he leaves on the bases. Hideki Matsui or Robinson Cano could also be candidates for the five spot. I have no real argument against Matsui, I just prefer Posada there. As for Cano, I think his patience isn't developed enough to bat this high in the order. He makes good contact (had a great LD% this year) and has some pop, but I still want his not-so-high OBP lower in the order.

6. Hideki Matsui, DH--He's a good fit for the six spot. Decent average, decent OBP, decent power. If There's a right handed pitcher, it's two lefties back to back. If it's a left handed pitcher, there's still a RH/LH balance between the five/six spots.

7. Xavier Nady, RF--I really do think last year's hot start--the first half, and his first week with the Yankees--was an incredible fluke. I don't think he's gonna suck this year, but he definitely won't be great. The seven spot seems right for him, plus, it keeps a left/right balance that I like to have. Cano could also bat here if Posada and Matsui are flipped, with Nady taking the eight spot.

8. Robinson Cano, 2B--I think this spot, or the seven spot, fits Cano best until he gets some patience. He was a victim of bad luck last year, but his lack of patience still puts him in a lower spot in the order.

9. Brett Gardner, CF--While this has the potential to put three left handers in a row, there's really no where else to bat Gardner. He showed that he was semi-overmatched at the ML level to begin with--despite a great showing during his second cup of coffee--but still showed a decent eye. A good OBP here at the bottom of the order (I see anywhere from .340-.360 for Gardner) could put some runners on base for the top of the order.

So, in review:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Swisher 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Posada C
6. Matsui DH
7. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Gardner CF

Of course, this can, and probably will, change. But, for now, just bear with me, k?

Nick Swisher!

2008-11-14T13:04:00.004-05:00

Well the Yankees made their first big move of the offseason (unless we want to count Marte's deal as "big," but more on that later) in trading Wilson Betemit and Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez for Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.

I, for one, am very excited for this move. The prospects of getting Swisher had been floating around for the last few weeks, but now it has come to fruition.

Now, I understand Swisher only hit .219 last year, but he had a .333 on base percentage. While standing alone a .333 OBP is bad, considering it was over 100 points higher than his batting average, it's pretty good. Swisher also led the league in pitches per plate appearance and since 2006, he is ninth in walks behind some great names, such as Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, and David Ortiz among others.

So, in Swisher, the Yankees get a guy who can play a few different positions who can also work the count and get on base, which is exactly what the Yankees need.

My only concern is what this does for the Yankees and the other Tex. This eliminates a lot of leverage Scott Boras and his client may've had, but it could also eliminate their desire to sign with the Yankees.

I'd obviously love to get Tex, but getting Swisher is a cheaper alternative. He gets on base at a great rate and definitely has some pop, with over 20 homers each full season he's had in the majors, and a .451 slugging percentage for his career.

More importantly, I think this move could be geared toward the future. Both aging outfielders Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui will come off the books next year, as will Xavier Nady. Swisher could be set up as a key piece in the outfield in 2010 and after along with (hopefully) Austin Jackson, and someone else in left field. I don't see Xavier Nady being with the team after his contract is up.

Who could that other guy be? Perhaps Matt Holliday, who will essentially have an American League try out this year and the Yankees will get to think long and hard about signing him (he'll probably be more expensive than Tex if he has a good year).

I am very excited about getting Nick Swisher and wish to welcome him to the New York Yankees. I hope you are all as excited as I am.

GO YANKEES IN 2009!

All MLB Team

2008-11-03T10:34:00.005-05:00

Here is my ALL MLB TEAM (with a backup for each position)

C--Joe Mauer, MIN, Brian McCann, ATL
1B--Albert Pujols, StL; Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B--Dustin Pedroia, BOS; Chase Utley, PHI
3B--Alex Rodriguez, NYY; David Wright, NYM
SS--Hanley Ramirez, FLA; Jose Reyes, NYM
OF--Carlos Quinten, CWS; Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF--Manny Ramirez, BOS/LAD; Ryan Ludwick, StL
OF--Matt Holliday, COL; Carlos Lee, HOU

SP--Tim Lincecum, SFG
SP--Johan Santana, NYM
SP--Cole Hamels, PHI
SP--Roy Halladay, TOR
SP--Cliff Lee, CLE
CP--Mariano Rivera, NYY; Brad Lidge, PHI

Awards Season, AL CY Edition

2008-10-22T11:59:00.012-04:00

All eyes are on Moose and his shot at 20 wins in the opener. Most of the regulars should play in this one. Let’s hope today’s the day Matsuzaka has his long overdue ERA correction (FIP: 4.08, xFIP: 4.86, tRA: 4.54). How fluky has Matsuzaka’s season been? There have been two seasons since 1901 where a pitcher walked 5 men per nine innings and finished with an ERA+ of 150 or better while pitching at least 162 innings. Matsuzaka in 2008, and Hal Newhouser in 1942.

That's from The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, a fantastic site.

Dice-K should not be rewarded for having an incredibly lucky season.

So, that leaves us with two candidates: Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. The former came out of no where, he was in the minors last year, to have an incredible season for a bad team. The latter is one of the best pitchers in baseball today, who's dominant year in and year out. Let's see how they stack up:

CL = Cliff Lee, RH = Roy Halladay, x = category winner, y = league leader

IP:
RH: 246.0 x, y
CL: 223.3

H:
RH: 220
CL: 214 x

BB:
RH: 39
CL: 34 x

WHIP:
RH: 1.053 x
CL: 1.110

SO:
RH: 206 x
CL: 170

K/BB:
RH: 5.28 x, y
CL: 5.00

K/9:
RH: 7.54 x
CL: 6.85

H/9:
RH: 8.05 x
CL: 8.63

BB/9:
RH: 1.43
CL: 1.37 x, y

Men On/9:
RH: 9.48 x
CL: 10.00

BAA:
RH: .237 x
CL: .253

OBPA:
RH: .276 x
CL: .285

SLGA:
RH: .345 x
CL: .348

OPSA:
RH: .621 x
CL: .633

ERA:
RH: 2.78
CL: 2.54 x, y

ERA+:
RH: 154
CL: 174 x, y

So, in the above categories, Roy Halladay beats Cliff Lee in 11 categories and leads the league in two. Lee wins in five, leading the league in three. This is an absolute toss up. Even when I look at a frivolous stat like wins, both guys had at least 20--Halladay had 20, Lee had 22. In losses, Halladay had 11, Lee had 3, good for the league lead in win/loss percentage. This race is essentially a tie. Let's delve a little deeper into how these guys did what they did. Digging through gamelogs via Lee's and Halladay's pages on baseball-reference.com, I found the following:

In terms of run support, Lee had the incredible advantage; he got 5.58 runs per game of support while Halladay only got 4.61 runs of support. That definitely contributed to double digit losses for Halladay. Cliff Lee had four games in which he recorded a quality start and ended up with a loss or no decision for his effort, Halladay had five of those scenarios. So it seems that Halladay made the best of his run support. The ridiculous thing is how many decisions he got. There were only three games this past season when Halladay didn't factor in the decisions, and in one of those, a relief appearance on May 18 vs. Philadelphia, he got a hold. Back to that run support, though...if Halladay had gotten the same support as Lee, he definitely would've surpassed Cliff in wins.

More in terms of luck: Cliff Lee had an FIP of 2.92. That's incredible and comes due to the incredibly small amount of walks and home runs he gave up. However, Lee's xFIP came in at 3.69. That's a big difference and indicates a pretty damn good deal of luck. Halladay's FIP was 3.09, with an xFIP of 3.23. That shows that Halladay was a little lucky, but nearly as much as Lee.

Now FIP is wonderful, but it doesn't take into consideration every single type of batted ball. tRA does. tRA also takes into consideration the run value of the type of hit, which is pretty damn cool if you ask me. Let's look at these two from the lens of tRa:

Cliff Lee's tRA weighed in at 3.17, and according to the same page and 42.0 Pitching Runs Above Average. Halladay's tRA was at 3.50 and he was at 36.3 PRAA. For the record, Baseball Prospectus' Pitchers VORP leader-board has Lee first in the Majors at 75.0 and Halladay in fourth at 71.5. This closeness is getting ridiculous.

So, who would my vote go to? I still have no idea! This is legitimately one of the closest Cy Young races I can recall. I could easily wuss out and say that I'd vote for both of them, but that's no fun. Reading through all of the info I've written, it seems that every single stat is countered by another. So, after going with my head and yielding no results, I'm gonna go all Colbert on your asses and go with my gut.

Halladay. I love him, I love Lee. If either one of them wins, I'll be happy. But I just feel that Lee got a little lucky this year. Halladay was pretty damn dominant and I feel that he was under-appreciated and almost overlooked this year. Go Roy...but go Cliff, too.

Awards Season, NL CY Edition

2008-10-09T12:41:00.006-04:00

With the playoffs starting--and finishing, depending on your team--another season of baseball starts and that's the awards season. This is one of my favorite parts of the year because the regular season is over and we can finally step back and analyze the numbers. We've finally got a perfect sample size--a whole season! Here's who I think should take home the hardware.

The National League Cy Young was at one time in this season (whether you agreed or disagreed) a one horse race and that horse was Brandon Webb. Over the last month or two of the season, though, the race "opened" up to more possible winners.

The top three candidates in my book are Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, and Cole Hamels. Here's how they stack up against each other in various categories, "X" denoting the category's winner, Y denotes league leader in category

IP
JS: 234.1 X, Y
CH: 227.1
TL: 227

H:
JS: 206
CH: 193
TL: 182 X

BB:
JS: 63
CH: 53 X
TL: 84

WHIP:
JS: 1.149
CH: 1.083 X, Y
TL: 1.163

SO:
JS: 206
CH: 196
TL: 265 X, Y

K/BB:
JS: 3.27
CH: 3.70 X
TL: 3.23

K/9:
JS: 7.92
CH: 7.77
TL: 10.50 X, Y

H/9:
JS: 7.91
CH: 7.64
TL: 7.22 X, Y

BB/9:
JS: 2.42
CH: 2.10 X
TL: 3.33

MO (Men on)/9
JS: 10.33
CH: 9.74 X
TL: 10.55

ERA:
JS: 2.53 X, Y
CH: 3.06
TL: 2.62

ERA+
JS: 163
CH: 145
TL: 164 X, Y

So out of those categories, Santana wins two (innings and ERA, leading the league in both categories), Hamels wins five categories (walks, strikeout to walk, walks per nine, men on per nine, and WHIP, leading the league in one), and Lincecum wins in five as well (ERA+, H/9, K/9, SO, H, leading the league in four). This elementary leader board puts Lincecum ahead, due to his leading the entire NL in so many categories.

I think it's fairly obvious that the NL Cy Young winner should be Tim Lincecum. He shouldn't be punished for playing on an awful team, Cliff Lee sure won't be in the AL as he looks to be the favorite to win his league's award--more on that at another time.

Anyway, this is what my ballot would look like:
1. Tim Lincecum, SFG
2. Cole Hamels, PHI
3. Johan Santana, NYM

Awards Season, AL ROTY Edition

2008-10-08T11:05:00.004-04:00

With the playoffs starting--and finishing, depending on your team--another season of baseball starts and that's the awards season. This is one of my favorite parts of the year because the regular season is over and we can finally step back and analyze the numbers. We've finally got a perfect sample size--a whole season! Here's who I think should take home the hardware.

After the NL MVP, the AL ROTY is the most obvious award. If anyone but Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay (I still call them the Devil) Rays even gets a first place vote, I'll go incredibly mad.

In 448 ABs, Longoria jacked 27 homers, drove in 85, and had a vital line of .272/.343/.531 for an OPS of .847, good for a 130 OPS+. He had 84 runs created, 19.3 batting runs, and 1.8 batting wins. Longoria was also 4th in range factor and zone rating among qualifying AL third basemen.

Using my elementary system of adding Batting and Fielding Runs Above Replacement/Average together, Longoria put up the following totals:

41 BRAR + 32 FRAR = 73 runs above replacement
26 BRAR + 17 FRAR = 43 runs above average

That's pretty damn good if you ask me.

While Longoria as the winner seems fairly obvious, it's not too apparent who will be the runner up. My money is on Alexei Ramirez due to a winning team, an important home run, and the large influence of the Chicago media. However, Mike Aviles is the guy who should finish second to Longoria.

In the complete and total obscurity that is Kansas City Royals baseball, Aviles put up a line of .325/.354/.480/.834, with an OPS+ of 116. He also played a solid SS, posting a fielding percentage 3 points higher than league average and a range factor that was solidly above average as well. Using the Replacement/Average additions, Aviles did:

27 BRAR + 23 FRAR = 50
14 BRAA + 3 FRAA = 17

Again, that's great for a rookie, espeically one playing shortstop.

Next is Alexei Ramirez. While I think he should finish third in this voting, he had a great year, belting 21 homers, driving in 77, and slugging .475. It's his lack of patience, though, that I think will come back and bite him; he walked only 18 times all year to the tune of a .317 OBP. A 104 OPS+ out of a second baseman, though, is still pretty good. Using my "system" Ramirez was:

20 BRAR + 10 FRAR = 30
4 BRAR + -16 FRAA = -12

So while Ramirez posted an above average year with the bat, his defense was solidly below average and that drags him down a bit.

So, if I had a vote for the AL Rookie of the Year, my ballot would look like this:

1. Evan Longoria, 3B TBD
2. Mike Aviles, SS KCR
3. Alexei Ramirez, 2B CHW

Awards Season: NL MVP Edition.

2008-10-06T09:03:00.011-04:00

With the playoffs starting--and finishing, depending on your team--another season of baseball starts and that's the awards season. This is one of my favorite parts of the year because the regular season is over and we can finally step back and analyze the numbers. We've finally got a perfect sample size--a whole season! Here's who I think should take home the hardware.

I'll start with an easy one. The National League MVP is Albert Pujols. Yes, I know Ryan Howard had a monster September and finished with the league lead in homers and runs batted in but that alone does not mean he should win the MVP. Despite leading in those categories, he didn't crack the top ten in Batting Runs, Runs Created, or Batting Wins. To his credit, he did finish first in ABs per homer and fourth in total bases, and seventh in slugging percentage. All in all, that's a pretty good year considering how awful he started; but Albert Pujols wasn't other-worldly for just a month like Howard was for September.

He was other worldly for an entire year. This year, Pujols is second in OBP (.462), first in sluggling (.653), first in OPS (1.114), third in hits, first in total bases, fourth in doubles, homers, and runs batted in, second in walks, first in OPS+, first in runs created, first in batting runs, and first in batting wins. To paraphrase what I read in an article on The Hardball Times: Albert Pujols is better than anyone on the planet at hitting a baseball. If the baseball writers flub this one, which I'm sure they will, I will completely lose what little faith I had left in them.

Take this into consideration as well: Ryan Howard was third on HIS OWN TEAM in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). While VORP has its flaws, it's a nice little crutch and the fact that Howard was the third hardest person on his team to replace is indicative of why he shouldn't be winning the MVP. Albert Pujols, on the other hand, was the hardest man in the majors to replace, with a VORP of 96.8. Ryan Howard was 39th in VORP for the 2008 season.

Predicting What the Captain Will Do Next Year

2008-09-29T11:26:00.014-04:00

Derek Jeter's 2008 season was really a tale of two halves. In the first half, the Captain didn't look all that great. He pulled into the All-Star game, which he started, mostly because of the lack of good offensive SS's in the AL this year with a batting vital of:

.284/.345/.395/.740.

From a traditional standpoint, that's pretty damn good for a shortstop. But Derek Jeter isn't a prototypical defense-first, light hitting shortstop. He's an offense first shortstop and has been one of the better hitters in the Majors for his career. So when he put up that line in the first half, I think some of us were disappointed with Mr. Jeter's offensive output.

In the second half, though, Jeter returned to his normal hitting state, putting up this vital from the ASB on:

.324/.388/.426/.815.

While the power didn't really show up like I thought it would, the average and on base percentage were right on with his career numbers.

This left me thinking, what would Derek Jeter, one of my favorite players of all time, one of the reasons I love baseball as much as I do, do in his next season? Was this the beginning of the end? Were all those innings from March to late October finally catching up to him?

Obviously, I could rely on projections, like the ones found at fangraphs.com but where would the fun be in that? I'd rather just do some number crunching on my own. So what I decided to do was take the ten most similar players on Derek's Baseball-Reference page and see how they did in their age 34 seasons (Derek's 2008) and compare it to how they did in their age 35 seasons.

There are obviously ten players there but I only used seven for a few reasons: Arky Vaughn lost a bunch of years to the war, Bill Doerr retired after his age 33 season and Ryne Sandberg only played 57 games in his age 34 season before missing his age 35 season entirely. The players I did use were: Barry Larkin, Allen Trammell, Ray Durham, Kirby Puckett, Jay Bell, Joe Torre, and Bill Dickey.

I used only the most basic of metrics--AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ for this "study" so bear with me on the numbers. What I did was take those numbers from the comparable players 34/35 seasons and add them together, finding the differences, then added those numbers to DJ's 34 total to "predict" what he'll do in 2009. For brevity's sake, I'll list only the differences by player:

Barry Larkin: AVG: -.016, OBP: -.007, SLG: -.084, OPS: -.091, OPS+: -33

Allen Trammell: AVG: +.054, OBP: +.018, SLG: + .104, OPS: +.122, OPS+: +24

Ray Durham: AVG: -.075, OBP: -.065, SLG: -.165, OPS: -.260, OPS+: -62

Kirby Puckett: AVG: +.003, OBP: +.017, SLG: -.025, OPS: -.008, OPS+: +1

Jay Bell: AVG: -.019, OBP: +.001, SLG: -.037, OPS: -.036, OPS+: -5

Joe Torre: AVG: +.059, OBP: +.041, SLG: +.049, OPS: +.090, OPS+: +32

Bill Dickey: AVG: +.011, OBP: -.014, SLG: -.044, OPS: -.053, OPS+: -1

Averaging out the differences it came to:

AVG: +.002
OBP: -.001
SLG: -.027

So if we add those totals to Derek Jeter's total 2008 of: .300/.363/.408 we would get:

.302/.362/.381/.743

That low of an OPS has not been league average for DJ's entire career. So, if he were to in fact put that up, which I believe is a reasonable projection considering his age and position, for the first time in his career, Jeter's full season OPS+ would be under 100. For the first time, the Captain would truly be a below average hitter.

Obviously, my study is incredibly elementary and doesn't take into consideration more than a few rate stats or adjust player performances for league averages, but it's just a fun little thing to do. Hopefully Derek far outplays my projections and has a fantastic season in the new Yankee Stadium.

There's Always Next Year Part Three

2008-09-15T09:01:00.007-04:00

Alright, now that I've sort of tackled the infield issues, I'll move onto what I think should happen in centerfield for the Bombers in the 2009 campaign.

For lack of a better word, centerfield has the potential to be an absolute clusterfuck next year. Melky Cabrera will want to take back his old spot. Brett Gardner will want to prove that he can play (hit) at the Major League level. Austin Jackson may come off a hot playoff run for Trenton, turn it into a great fall in the Arizona Fall League, and in turn, have a great spring and make a case for being on the ML roster.

Okay, the A-Jack prediction is a little lofty, and I don't think he'll be ML ready til mid-2009 at the earliest, but I like to dream.

Coming into spring, the Yankees will have to look long and hard at Melky Cabrera. 2008 was an absolute disaster for him. His hitting regressed like crazy despite good fielding and it culminated with a stint in AAA with Scranton.

Brett Gardner hit poorly in his (limited) playing time with the Yankees, but displayed great speed and good tools at the plate, mostly his eye.

I'm obviously stupid for listening to this, but Steve Philips, genius that he is, suggested last night on Baseball Tonight that the Yankees may inquire about Nate McLouth of the Pirates. Nate had an absolutely fantastic year, but I wouldn't like to trade for him. Yes, I believe in the breakout season, but something about McLouth screams "fluke" to me. That's just me, though--maybe I'm wrong. I guess if a good offer were made, I'd consider it; but if the Pirates want to move McLouth, I'm sure they'll strike while the iron is hot and get too much for him. Basically, on gut reaction, I wouldn't be in support of this move.

So if I'm in charge, if I'm Joe Girardi, my Opening Day center fielder is...the young Brett Gardner. He may not have displayed incredibly flashy numbers this season--save for some game winning hits and a 10/11 SB/CS rate (as of 9:15 PM, EST after his second steal tonight), but the tools are there. His Isolated Power (SLG-BA) isn't exactly where I'd like it (.046), but his Isolated Differential (OBP-BA) is good at .067. That power will start to come around when he learns how to hit at the major league level. I think teaching him that by throwing him in the fire is a good idea.

His arm isn't great but with a CF, I'd rather have good speed and range than a good arm. Gardner has already shown that he can be an effective CF and in limited time, he is 5 Fielding Runs Above Replacement and 4 Above Average. Compare that to Melky Cabrera's 17 FRAR and -2 FRAA and Johnny Damon's 3/-2 totals. Though this is a small sample size, I feel more comfortable with Gardner in center. His arm may not be as strong as Melky's, but he can cover more ground than Cabrera and could probably beat Johnny Damon in a foot race while running backwards.

In closing, Gardner should play center, Melky should either be a fourth outfielder or be in the minors, and Johnny Damon has no business playing the outfield anymore.

That's all for now. Congratulations to the Captain for setting the Stadium hit record--here's to "rebounding" next year and starting off the new Stadium right.

There's Always Next Year Part Two

2008-09-11T19:25:00.005-04:00

Now I'll give my remedy for the future Yankee first base situation and the outfield logjam that would happen if Bobby Abreu remains with the Yankees, which I believe he should.

The obvious choice for replacing Giambi at first is signing a free agent...the free agent: Mark Teixeira. At about mid-season, I wanted this to happen, mostly because I felt Abreu should be gone. Now that I've rethought my position on the latter, my idea about the former has changed as well. Tex is a great player, no doubt, and a switch hitting first baseman who can play good defense is a good thing, but it's not worth 10 years, $200 million. There is a much cheaper way to replace the Giambino at first:

The first base problem can, and should, be solved internally. No, I don't mean Shelley Duncan. He is clearly a AAAA player and should've been traded in the offseason when his value was at its absolute peak. What I mean by an internal solution is using an aging player at first base. The options are Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Jorge Posada. I'll start with Posada.

Using Posada seems to make sense because of the destruction of his shoulder. This can happen if Bobby Abreu is let go. But for all intents and purposes, we'll say that Abreu is staying with the team. If that's the case, Posada needs to stay behind the plate. His shoulder will hopefully be back up to normal strength by Spring Training. He must stay behind the plate because Jose Molina's offense is killing the team. Yes, his defense is absolutely wonderful but his bat hurts the team more than his glove helps. While his defense is at 14 Runs Above Average but his offense is at -16 Runs Above Replacement. So using a rough calculation I'll do from now on when I do comparisons between offense and defense, we'll add the runs together. 14 + (-16) = -2. So basically, defense and offense included Molina has cost the Yankees two runs this year.

Using Posada as the catcher allows Molina to slip back into a role into which he's more comfortable: the backup role. Molina is a fantastic backup catcher and that's where he should stay. Posada behind the plate also allows for greater flexibility in the infield and outfield in a Nady/Abreu inclusive lineup.

For the infield, everything would stay the same except for first base. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, with their diminished outfield skill sets, could transition to first base in the off-season and Spring Training. For Damon, this would eliminate his awful arm from concern for the Yankees. For Matsui,it puts him at a position where he wouldn't have to rely on his aching knees too much. The one who doesn't play first can continue to be the designated hitter.

The outfield alignment would look like this: Nady/CF/Abreu. That leaves the question of who will play centerfield, but we'll get to that later. Leaving CF, that leaves the Yankees looking like thisin the field:

C: Posada
1B: Matsui/Damon
2B: Cano
3B: Rodriguez
SS: Jeter (he can move to first after 2009, when Matsui and Damon both have their contracts expire)
LF: Nady
CF: ??
RF: Abreu

This combination on the diamond gives the Yankees a much better presence at the plate, since both Nady and Abreu can be in the lineup. First base's offensive output might not be as powerful as it was, but Matsui and Damon can both still hit pretty competently.

I'll tackle the issue of centerfield in my next post...

-Matt

There's Always Next Year

2008-09-11T10:36:00.011-04:00

I sit down writing this piece with a strange blend of emotions.

First, I must obviously take note of the date. It's September 11, 2008. Seven years have passed since the most terrifying day in my existence. Nothing will ever come close to touching the amount of fear and heartbreak that I felt that day. I remember the little details about that day and the night before. The night before, I was sitting three rows behind home plate with my Spanish teacher and two friends at Yankee Stadium. On the way to the game, I heard that Incubus song with the line "whatever tomorrow brings, I'll be there." Obviously, I thought nothing of it. Looking back now, nothing was more appropriate. The game was rained out. I went home and watched the Giants win Monday Night Football against the Denver Broncos. Ed McCaffery broke his leg. My friend Phil told me what happened in Mr. Epstein's World Themes class. I thought it was just an accident, then he told me it was two planes crashing into the towers and I knew something was wrong. Throughout the day, we got little updates over the loudspeaker or by using a computer. I remember my school's principal, a little elfish looking woman we all loved to make fun of, coming over the loudspeaker when I was in learning center (read: study hall) and telling us that the towers collapsed. Suddenly, my math homework didn't seem too important. I put my head down and began to cry. I remember a tear falling onto the lens of my glasses. I remember going home and seeing the full destruction of what happened. My mother had the day off and went to the beach, since our beaches at home have a fantastic view of the city. It was a beautiful day and everything was clear as could be...except the smoke. She and my sister were out doing some errand at some point. I was sitting outside, tired of seeing the news coverage. I looked at a big oak tree in our yard when they pulled in and pointed to it. "That's all that's left," I said. "Some pieces of metal about that big."

My late grandfather was sitting in traffic on the George Washington Bridge. He was taking his pigeons to the Vince Lombardi Service Station on the New Jersey Turnpike to let them fly back home for training for their race that Saturday. That race didn't happen. Nothing did. I didn't know anyone personally who died, just one of my father's customers. Regardless of that, I'll never forget that moment, that day, that event in which 3,000 people died in a matter of hours. I aspire to teach and I don't quite know how I'll explain to my students what happened on that day. How can someone who was either too young to remember or not born appreciate what happened that day? I liken it to my parents and aunts and uncles trying to tell my generation about what happened when JFK was shot, or my grandparents telling us about when Pearl Harbor was bombed. Maybe we understand that it was a moment of incredible terror, but we don't fully appreciate what happened.

Now, onto baseball....

The Yankees are beyond the point where the final nail is in the coffin. The coffin is six feet under, the dirt is being piled on, and the eulogy is starting. A eulogy is exactly what this final home-stand for Yankees will feel like. It was supposed to be a celebration of greatness, but now it will just be a mourning of mediocrity.

When I think about the prospect of the Yankees missing the playoffs, I think of the Dashboard Confessional song "The Brilliant Dance," specifically the first few lines:

"So this is odd. The painful realization that all has gone wrong."

Everything has gone wrong with the Yankees this season. The young pitchers didn't pitch, the young hitters didn't hit, and even the veterans didn't hit--much. The offense still shows flashes of brilliance, but compared to the juggernaut it was last year, it is nothing. Missing a bunch of players hurts. A lot. But injuries cannot be fully blamed for this year's mishap. So, with a strange feeling, I look forward to the offseason and what I think next year should look like.

First, there is the issue of free-agency. The biggest names for the Yankees who will be free agents are:
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte
Ivan Rodriguez
Jason Giambi
Bobby Abreu

Of those, all of them could be gone. And I have advocated that. Why not? The Yankees could use the draft picks from those players to sure up the farm system. The farm system has gotten much better, but it never hurts to have more prospects. However, in recent days, I've been re-thinking my position. While the Yankees are in a situation in which rebuilding might have to be an option, getting picks makes a lot of sense. The first round of the draft could just be the Yankees and Brewers alternating picks. But then it hit me, the Yankees are going to need to keep at least one of these players. Mike Mussina has pitched well enough to earn himself another year with the Yankees, and I think that will happen, despite the fact that it is not incredibly necessary for him to come back. A veteran player in the rotation is nice, but he would just be blocking the spot of some younger player the Yankees could season. I see this no playoffs thing as a trend, not an aberration. If that's going to be the case, why not get some of the young guys to develop in the process? I mean, what's the point of having prospects if we're never going to test them? The longer we wait to to that, the worse off we'll be in the future.

The one player the Yankees need to keep is...Bobby Abreu. Yes his defense is absolutely awful, but his bat is great and it fits the Yankees style of play. When they traded for Xavier Nady, the Yankees were pretty much saying that Bobby Abreu would only be a Yankee for the rest of this season, then it would be so long. I thought along those lines, too. In the last few days, though, I've seen the error in that thinking.

Nady's hot start had us all thinking he was going to mash like this for the rest of the year. Well, no. Xavier Nady has had a great season, no doubt. However, it's been incredibly fluke-ish. His fantastic first week with the Yankees seemed to grant him a grace period, but his last calender month of baseball has been pretty crappy.

Since August 11th, Nady has posted this as his hitting vital:

.257/.303/.434/.737, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 33 SO, 7 BB.

Slumps happen, but a 33/7 K/BB ratio is unacceptable. Why does a bad month mean he shouldn't be the everyday outfielder for the Yankees next year? Why does this justify my feelings that he shouldn't replace Abreu? Well, that alone doesn't; but Xavier Nady's career as a whole does. He's a .282/.337/.462/.799 player for his career. Is that bad? Hardly, his OPS+ comes in at 110. He's had a fantastic season, but his numbers have slowly climbed down from the incredible start he had with the Pirates and with the Yankees. Abreu is a much more solid hitter than Nady.

So instead of picking one or the other, the Yankees really should do both. But, Matt, you say. That leaves a horrible logjam in the outfield. In the words of Lee Corso: not so fast my friend. This post is running long. I'll get into it in my next one, which should come tomorrow.

-Matt

Ding Dong, the Season's Dead

2008-09-07T18:42:00.002-04:00

Well, that's it folks. The Yankees have just lost to the Seattle Mariners and are officially in fourth place. Let me say now that I am declaring the season 1,000% over. This baseball team is beyond embarrassing. To have a lineup that includes the players that it does and to score this few runs and win this few games is appalling. Yes there have been a litany of injuries but the Yankees dug their own grave this year with their awful play. This team has been dead in the water for about a month now. Well, Yankee fans, the ship has finally sunk. Here's to next year...More on that in the days to come...

Stop the NL Cy Young Madness

2008-09-03T11:41:00.011-04:00

The NL Cy Young madness needs to end. Now. People in the mainstream media and here on the internet need to stop calling Brandon Webb the NL Cy Young Award winner or the favorite to win the award.

Brandon Webb has definitely had a great year but to call him the NL's best pitcher is just ludicrous, especially since he may not even be the best pitcher on his own team.

There is a case to be made that Danny Haren, not Brandon Webb, is the best pitcher on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Webb may boast an impressive 19-6 record compared to Haren's 14-7 but that is one of the only clear cut advantages Mr. Webb has over Mr. haren.

In just about every statistical category, they are close:

Stat
IP: Webb: 192.0, Haren: 190.3
H: Webb: 174, Haren: 154
BB: Webb: 51, Haren: 30
WHIP: Webb: 1.172, Haren: 1.091
SO: Webb: 160, Haren: 176
K/BB: Webb: 3.13, Haren: 5.86
K/9: Webb: 7.50, Haren: 8.52
ERA: Webb 3.19, Haren: 3.24
BB/9: Webb: 2.39, Haren: 1.45
H/9: Webb: 8.16, Haren: 8.37
MO/9: Webb: 10.55, Haren: 9.82
AVG: Webb: .241, Haren: .244
OBP: Webb: .296, Haren: .279
SLG: Webb: .335, Haren: .375
OPS: Webb: .631, Haren: .655
BABIP: Webb: .290, Haren: .301

So they're close in just about everything. Webb gets the advantage in innings, hits per nine innings, BAA, SLGA, and OPSA, with Haren taking the rest. It's interesting to note that even though he has a higher SLGA, OPSA, and allows more hits per nine, Danny Haren, he allows fewer base-runners per nine innings than his counterpart, Brandon Webb, 9.82 to 10.55.

As you can see, I used all "traditional" stats, with the exception of one: Batting Average on Balls in Play, or BABIP. I like to use this stat as a sort of crutch to see how lucky a pitcher is getting. WHIP can also be used this way: a pitcher with a low ERA but high WHIP is getting lucky (see: Diasuke Matsuzaka). The average BABIP for the league is about .300. That means that anyone who has a BABIP of or around .300 is essentially "breaking even" in terms of luck. Anything above .300 signifies that a pitcher is getting bad luck and anything below .300 shows that a pitcher is getting good luck. Anyway, it's not a huge variation, but Webb is coming in at a .290 clip on BABIP, whereas Haren comes in at .301, thus breaking even. Webb seems to be getting a little lucky.

Haren's ERA might be a little higher than Webb's, but his lower WHIP, and sweep of the "per-nine" categories makes him the better choice, in my opinion. What's more, Haren leads the league with his 1.45 BB/9 and his 5.86 K/BB. Webb leads in wins and games started--I'll take BB/9 and K/BB over wins and starts.

With how close these are, it's a wonder how anyone can have Webb as the clear cut favorite to win the Cy Young. In my opinion, he doesn't even win his TEAM'S Cy Young Award, much less the entire National League's. It seems that Webb's lofty 19 win total is what's garnering him so much praise. If he had Danny Haren's win total, no one would be saying anything about his Cy Young candidacy. Wins suck.

Who, then, if not Webb, should be the NL Cy Young winner? The answer to that one is Tim Lincecum. He has blossomed into a true pitching star despite his yet-to-hit-puberty frame and funky mechanics and should be rewarded for his absolutely brilliant performance this season on an absolutely awful, awful baseball team.

Here are Tim Linecum's numbers:

IP: 190.3
H: 154
BB: 72
WHIP: 1.187
SO: 210
K/BB: 3.00
K/9: 10.22
ERA: 2.60
BB/9: 3.41
H/9: 7.28
MO/9: 10.66
AVG: .222
OBP: .298
SLG: .316
OPS: .614
BABIP: .306

Webb may have the control edge (BB/9, K/BB, WHIP, OBPA), but Lincecum's .222 BAA and league leading 210 strikeouts are just dominating and neutralize his higher walk total. And despite those walks, his WHIP still comes in at a great 1.187 and he's obviously not letting those runners score, as evidenced by the league leading 2.60 ERA.

What Lincecum doesn't have, like Haren, is the win total to be considered in the running: he only has 15 wins to Webb's 19. A lower win total usually means a lower vote total from the Baseball Writers. The irony here is that Lincecum actually has a better winning percentage than his Arizona counterpart, .833-.760. Lincecum, had he received proper run support, could have 23 wins by now. How is that possible? Well, Tim Lincecum has had EIGHT games this year in which he's recorded a quality start (at least six innings pitched with no more than three earned runs allowed) and gotten nothing for it, with the game resulting in either a no decision or a loss.

In my perfect baseball world, Tim Lincecum is the 2008 NL Cy Young winner. Hopefully, the Baseball Writers see it that way and the Brandon Webb madness stops.

-Matt

Is It Over?

2008-08-31T16:12:00.000-04:00

For the second time in a row, Andy Pettitte faltered when the Yankees needed him to come through. This is upsetting, especially since Pettitte has been such a stopper in previous years.

Roy Halladay looked fantastic like always--except for 2 pitches to A-Rod and Giambi.

The only positive I can take from this game is that Alfredo Aceves looked very strong. His breaking ball had good, sharp movement. His fastball also showed good life and moved away from lefties and backed up righties. Hopefully, he can add some life to the Yankees bullpen, though it is probably too little too late.

The Yankees need to play essentially flawless baseball on this roadtrip. It's looking pretty grim...

Unbelieveable...

2008-08-30T16:40:00.000-04:00

This is why the Yankees are a third place team...

Game 134 Thoughts.

2008-08-29T22:19:00.000-04:00

Well, the Yankees won 2-1, they got great pitching all night--Carl Pavano was impressive and Mo was vintage Mo. Anyway, here are some other thoughts I had whilst watching from my GF's couch...

In A-Rod's first at bat, the second pitch specifically, he expanded the zone like crazy and went fishing for a pitch. He's been doing this a lot this month--hence the struggles--but it's really starting to show. Xavier Nady seems to be doing the same thing. His swing is flying open on the outside pitch and he's whiffing on it. He's also swinging his absolute hardest on just about every swing. It's nice that he's not getting cheated, but it seems to be leading to a few more strikeouts than necessary. On a related note, when Mr. Rodriguez has been making contact with outside pitches, he seems to have been doing one of two things: either rolling his hands over and grouning out (ten double plys this month) or getting just under it and fouling it back to the screen. Alex clearly has power to the right side--to all sides for that matter--but is getting caught up in trying to pull the ball--doubles to the RC gap count just as much those to Death Valley.

I thought we were gonna have the first test of instant replay on Johnny Damon's fly ball to right, but alas, it endedup being a fairly simple call.

Snider for Toronto got his first ML hit--congrats to him and I hope he has a long, successful career--just so long as he doesn't get anymore hits against the Yankees ;-)

AJ Burnett owns Jason Giambi and Alexis Rios looks like Nosferatu.

That's it for tonight, great game for the Yankees--let's hope they can do it about 20 more times and get into the playoffs.

Game 134: Blue Jays at Yankees

2008-08-29T18:13:00.000-04:00

Here is the lineup for the Yankees tonight courtesy of Peter Abraham.

YANKEES (71-62)
Damon CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
A. Rodriguez 3B
Giambi 1B
Nady LF
Matsui DH
Cano 2B
I. Rodriguez C
Pavano RHP

Back after the game for post-game thoughts.

GO YANKS!

Leading Off

2008-08-28T22:02:00.000-04:00

I'm not sure how many, if any, people will be reading this but welcome. I'll try to keep this up as much as possible with posts about anything from incredibly specific articles on the Yankees to just my general thoughts on baseball. A lot of the time, I won't have access to games since I go to UConn and their cable package doesn't carry YES. However, my wonderful girlfriend, Liz, has the Extra-Innings package and she gladly provides play-by-play for me when I can't watch games. She's gonna help out here, too, adding pre and post game thoughts with me. Anyway, here goes!

Some thoughts on the state of the team right now:

Things are bleak...very, very bleak. Obviously, making the playoffs is still possible...but realistically, I don't think it's going to happen. For the first time in my time as a Yankee fan (essentially my entire life), they will be missing the playoffs. It comes as an odd reality, but one that I'm ready and willing to face. For the beginnings of the past few seasons, my pessimism shining through, I've thought that the playoffs were out of reach for the Yankees. Now that "bad dream" might finally be coming true. I can't help but think of R.E.M: "It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine." Perhaps the Yankees not making the playoffs will wake the entire organization up into possibly changing things. While I think things like "heart" are overrated, this team clearly lacks it. Passion has been totally absent from this team despite their claims of playing in a "playoff atmosphere" for the last few weeks. Maybe biting this "no-playoff" bullet will be good and the Yankees will be able to develop some prospects in the coming weeks when rosters expand. The decision to call up Alfredo Aceves is a great one--even though it comes rather late--and it'll be nice to see him get some major league innings. Hopefully Phil Franchise can get some more major league work before '08 ends, as well. Maybe Brett Gardner (my new favorite player) will get some more time, too. His tools are definitely fantastic and the future in CF for the Yankees looks very bright.

Troubles w/RISP

While I'm not a huge fan of the whole "clutch" thing that has baseball in a death grip right now, the Yankees' situational hitting has been just awful this year, especially compared to previous years:

2006 w/RISP: .286/.386/.479/.865
2007 w/RISP: .293/.378/.451/.829
2008 w/RISP: .259/.345/.389/.735

Right now, the Yankees are 8/14 in the AL in runs. In 2006 they were first and in 2007 they were first again. More on this later, on an individual level. That's all for now, check back tomorrow night for a game wrap up.

-Matt