Hey, guys, sorry for the lack of updates. I've been ridiculously busy with finals so no real time to post. I'm done now, though, and will be graduating tomorrow. Wooo!
Anyway, my posting here is actually going to get less frequent because Rob over at Bronx Baseball Daily has recruited me to come write for him. I'll still post over here every so often, but the majority of my writing is now going to be done at BBD. I hope you follow there as closely as you've followed here.
-Matt
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Detroit Series Wrap
After dropping the first game 4-2, the Yankees went on to score 19 runs over the next two games to beat Detroit 2-1 in a three game set in the Motor City. Sadly, I was unable to watch any of these games because none of them were on My9 and I'm blacked out of ESPN coverage. Luckily, I'll be graduating a week from Sunday so I'll be home to watch every game.
SERIES POSITIVES: Starting pitching. Yeah, when was the last time I could say that? The KC series? The Yankees got good performances from their starters in Detroit; combined, they went 21 innings while allowing only 4 runs (all of those from CC) for an ERA of 1.71. Phil Hughes looked incredible on Tuesday night, as his cutter was biting and his curveball was just absolutely filthy. Last night, the Joba Chamberlain of the present looked like the Joba Chamberlain of the future. It's games like Wednesdays that should remind everyone why Joba's future is as a starter.
SERIES NEGATIVES: The bullpen remained a little shaky, as it gave up six runs last night. But in a win, there's little to complain about. After all, the bullpen only pitched a handful of low-leverage situations during this series.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees come home to play the Angels (9-11) stating today. The Angels are 5-5 in their last ten games, but they are on a three game win streak. The pitching matchups are:
Thursday: Anthony Ortega vs. A.J. Burnett
Friday: Jered Weaver vs. Andy Pettitte
Saturday: Matt Palmer vs. CC Sabathia
Sunday: Joe Saunders vs. Phil Hughes
TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .279/.357/.470/.828, 116 OPS+, 30 HR, 113 R
PITCHING: 5.87 ERA, 81 ERA+, 1.511 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.73 K/9
SERIES POSITIVES: Starting pitching. Yeah, when was the last time I could say that? The KC series? The Yankees got good performances from their starters in Detroit; combined, they went 21 innings while allowing only 4 runs (all of those from CC) for an ERA of 1.71. Phil Hughes looked incredible on Tuesday night, as his cutter was biting and his curveball was just absolutely filthy. Last night, the Joba Chamberlain of the present looked like the Joba Chamberlain of the future. It's games like Wednesdays that should remind everyone why Joba's future is as a starter.
SERIES NEGATIVES: The bullpen remained a little shaky, as it gave up six runs last night. But in a win, there's little to complain about. After all, the bullpen only pitched a handful of low-leverage situations during this series.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees come home to play the Angels (9-11) stating today. The Angels are 5-5 in their last ten games, but they are on a three game win streak. The pitching matchups are:
Thursday: Anthony Ortega vs. A.J. Burnett
Friday: Jered Weaver vs. Andy Pettitte
Saturday: Matt Palmer vs. CC Sabathia
Sunday: Joe Saunders vs. Phil Hughes
TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .279/.357/.470/.828, 116 OPS+, 30 HR, 113 R
PITCHING: 5.87 ERA, 81 ERA+, 1.511 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.73 K/9
Monday, April 27, 2009
Boston Series Wrap...kind of.
This series was a mess. That's all I'll say about the games.
SERIES POSITIVES: Robinson Cano. He is hitting like a freakin' mad man right now and I love it. I'm a little worried that he hasn't taken a walk in a while, but I hope his patient approach in this first month sticks around so that Robbie can still be effective when the hits aren't falling.
SERIES NEGATIVES: Literally everything else. This series was Murphy's Law for the Yankees: Mo Himself blew a save, Burnett couldn't hold a six run lead, the bullpen was awful, and, I don't know if you guys heard this, but Jacoby Ellsbury stole home. Another negative for this whole series was the ridiculous bias FOX and ESPN have displayed against the Yankees.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees head into Detroit this week and Phil Hughes will be getting a start on Tuesday. I look forward to that game, as well as the awesome Joba v. Porcello matchup on Wednesday night.
TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .276/.358/.475/.833, 115 OPS+, 28 HR, 100 R
PITCHING: 6.26 ERA, 77 ERA+, 1.589 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.62 K/BB
SERIES POSITIVES: Robinson Cano. He is hitting like a freakin' mad man right now and I love it. I'm a little worried that he hasn't taken a walk in a while, but I hope his patient approach in this first month sticks around so that Robbie can still be effective when the hits aren't falling.
SERIES NEGATIVES: Literally everything else. This series was Murphy's Law for the Yankees: Mo Himself blew a save, Burnett couldn't hold a six run lead, the bullpen was awful, and, I don't know if you guys heard this, but Jacoby Ellsbury stole home. Another negative for this whole series was the ridiculous bias FOX and ESPN have displayed against the Yankees.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees head into Detroit this week and Phil Hughes will be getting a start on Tuesday. I look forward to that game, as well as the awesome Joba v. Porcello matchup on Wednesday night.
TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .276/.358/.475/.833, 115 OPS+, 28 HR, 100 R
PITCHING: 6.26 ERA, 77 ERA+, 1.589 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.62 K/BB
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Oakland Series Wrap and Centerfield Thoughts
The Yankees beat the A's in 14 innings yesterday thanks to a walk off homer by Melky "I'm Doing the Best I Can to Win My Job Back" Cabrera. The bullpen was spectacular last night after CC Sabathia had another shaky start, allowing 7 runs. The night before, the Yankees got a 5-3 win after 7 innings of 2 run ball from Andy Pettitte and an early offensive spurt; so, the Yankees come away with a sweep of the rain-shortened series.
SERIES POSITIVES: The bullpen, the bullpen, and the bullpen. Brian Bruney gave up his first runners/runs since opening day, but aside from that, the Yankees bullpen has been incredible. After relieving CC in the 7th yesterday, the bullpen held the A's scoreless for the rest of the game, striking out six and allowing only five baserunners. Jose Veras looked unhittable yesterday, striking out four over his 3.1 innings--he also only walked one and didn't allow a hit.
SERIES NEGATIVES: CC had another shaky outing, walking four while striking out only two. I would be alarmed, but CC had a rough April last year and rebounded nicely for Cleveland. After four bad starts in April, Sabtahia went on to post a 2.16 ERA, a 1.008 WHIP, a 5.45 K/BB, and a 9.42 K/9. Another negative is the fact that Joe Girardi had to pinch hit for Cody Ransom with Brett Gardner yesterday. You know you're having a bad day when Brett Gardner is coming into the game to HIT for you. Ouch.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees have a day off today, except for CMW who's throwing an EST game to try and get himself right, and then they start a three game set with the Sox who've won seven in a row. The matchups are good ones with Joba facing Jon Lester on Friday, it's an alliteration battle on Saturday as Burnett takes on Beckett, and the series closes on Sunday with the veteran Pettitte taking on the young Justin Masterson.
TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .271/.351/.485/.836, 114 OPS+, 25 HRs, 84 R
PITCHING: 6.02 ERA, 82 ERA+, 1.522 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.70 K/BB
Now, onto my thoughts about centerfield. Early on, I advocated for Brett Gardner to start over Melky Cabrera. At this point, Brett really ain't cutting it. He can't seem to hit his way out of a paper bag, and despite his speed, he can't use it if he's not on base. Melky may not play as well on defense as Gardner (who's actually playing poorly now, but in a VERY small sample size), but he's got the hot bat and Girardi needs to play the hot hand. If I'm him, I'm starting Cabrera over Gardner in Boston. This vacillating back and forth between the two of them probably doesn't matter much in the end. Why? Because neither one of them is a viable long term solution in centerfield for the Yankees. If Gardner continues to hit this poorly, he should stay on the bench. If Melky regresses to his norm as a barely league average player, then the Yankees will need to pull the trigger on a trade for Mike Cameron or Marlon Byrd.
SERIES POSITIVES: The bullpen, the bullpen, and the bullpen. Brian Bruney gave up his first runners/runs since opening day, but aside from that, the Yankees bullpen has been incredible. After relieving CC in the 7th yesterday, the bullpen held the A's scoreless for the rest of the game, striking out six and allowing only five baserunners. Jose Veras looked unhittable yesterday, striking out four over his 3.1 innings--he also only walked one and didn't allow a hit.
SERIES NEGATIVES: CC had another shaky outing, walking four while striking out only two. I would be alarmed, but CC had a rough April last year and rebounded nicely for Cleveland. After four bad starts in April, Sabtahia went on to post a 2.16 ERA, a 1.008 WHIP, a 5.45 K/BB, and a 9.42 K/9. Another negative is the fact that Joe Girardi had to pinch hit for Cody Ransom with Brett Gardner yesterday. You know you're having a bad day when Brett Gardner is coming into the game to HIT for you. Ouch.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees have a day off today, except for CMW who's throwing an EST game to try and get himself right, and then they start a three game set with the Sox who've won seven in a row. The matchups are good ones with Joba facing Jon Lester on Friday, it's an alliteration battle on Saturday as Burnett takes on Beckett, and the series closes on Sunday with the veteran Pettitte taking on the young Justin Masterson.
TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .271/.351/.485/.836, 114 OPS+, 25 HRs, 84 R
PITCHING: 6.02 ERA, 82 ERA+, 1.522 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.70 K/BB
Now, onto my thoughts about centerfield. Early on, I advocated for Brett Gardner to start over Melky Cabrera. At this point, Brett really ain't cutting it. He can't seem to hit his way out of a paper bag, and despite his speed, he can't use it if he's not on base. Melky may not play as well on defense as Gardner (who's actually playing poorly now, but in a VERY small sample size), but he's got the hot bat and Girardi needs to play the hot hand. If I'm him, I'm starting Cabrera over Gardner in Boston. This vacillating back and forth between the two of them probably doesn't matter much in the end. Why? Because neither one of them is a viable long term solution in centerfield for the Yankees. If Gardner continues to hit this poorly, he should stay on the bench. If Melky regresses to his norm as a barely league average player, then the Yankees will need to pull the trigger on a trade for Mike Cameron or Marlon Byrd.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Last Night's Game and Xavier Nady
So the Yankees got a 5-3 win last night over the A's. It was Andy Pettitte's second win and Mariano Rivera's fourth save. Overall, it was a good game for the Yankees. They kept a sustained rally, Pettitte was able to pitch well despite not striking out a batter, and there were some flashy defensive plays. Brian Bruney allowed his first baserunner and run since Opening Day in the eighth, but Rivera was able to shut the door so it was all good. Brett Gardner, who also made a spectacular catch on a long drive from the very well received Jason Giambi, had two RsBI last night, thanks to a Bob Geren mistake. With the infield playing in early in the game, Gardner squeaked a single passed the slick-fielding Mark Ellis to plate the first two runs of the ball game for the Yankees. It was all down hill from there for Oakland starter Dana Eveland. On the plus side for Oakland, it was fun to watch reliever Andrew Bailey come in and throw some smoke. Despite giving up a homer--his first run allowed all year--to Johnny Damon, Bailey was blowing it by the Yankees in the mid-90's.
Two things that may fly under the radar are the two hits Hideki Matsui collected. The first was a double down the left field line and the second was a base hit right up the middle. What's so special about these two things? The directions of the hits. The double was on an outside pitch that Matsui actually went with and smoked down the line. The single was over the middle and that's where Matsui put it back after contact. Matsui usually has a tendency to roll his hands over on pitches that are middle/away and ground out weakly to the right side. It was very, very nice to see him drive the ball the other way and back up the middle. Perhaps he is coming out of his mini slump; I say mini-slump because despite not getting a whole lot of hits, Hideki is still reaching base. Counting last night, Hideki now has 9 walks on the season, and his OBP is up to .409. Matsui coming alive is a very good sign.
Another good sign for the Yankees is that Xavier Nady will not need surgery, and will most likely miss 4-6 weeks. This also likely means that the Yankees won't make a trade or pick someone off the free-agent/waiver wire, since X will be out for a relatively short period of time. It does, however, mean that Melky Cabrera will get more PAs. Melky's hitting .294/.368/.467 as of right now, but I would expect those numbers to fall with more playing time. Regardless, Nady won't have to have surgery and that's good news. Here's to a speedy recovery, X!
Two things that may fly under the radar are the two hits Hideki Matsui collected. The first was a double down the left field line and the second was a base hit right up the middle. What's so special about these two things? The directions of the hits. The double was on an outside pitch that Matsui actually went with and smoked down the line. The single was over the middle and that's where Matsui put it back after contact. Matsui usually has a tendency to roll his hands over on pitches that are middle/away and ground out weakly to the right side. It was very, very nice to see him drive the ball the other way and back up the middle. Perhaps he is coming out of his mini slump; I say mini-slump because despite not getting a whole lot of hits, Hideki is still reaching base. Counting last night, Hideki now has 9 walks on the season, and his OBP is up to .409. Matsui coming alive is a very good sign.
Another good sign for the Yankees is that Xavier Nady will not need surgery, and will most likely miss 4-6 weeks. This also likely means that the Yankees won't make a trade or pick someone off the free-agent/waiver wire, since X will be out for a relatively short period of time. It does, however, mean that Melky Cabrera will get more PAs. Melky's hitting .294/.368/.467 as of right now, but I would expect those numbers to fall with more playing time. Regardless, Nady won't have to have surgery and that's good news. Here's to a speedy recovery, X!
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Poll Results and Thoughts
Okay so my latest set of polls has closed, time to look at the data.
For question 1, I asked you all how many innings you think CC will pitch in 2009. 10 out of 18 said 201-220, which is probably about right. For question 2,regarding Burnett's strikeouts, it was a little closer. There were 11 total votes and 4 said 181-200, and 4 said 201+. I'd be more likely to fall into the 181-200 category, but at the rate A.J. is pitching, 201+ seems reachable, no? The Gardner questions almost seem to be a moot point, considering the poor rate of Gardner's hitting so far in '09. Out of the 12 votes regarding steals, no one said BG would get less than 21 steals, and 3 brave souls predicted 40+. 8 of 12 said Gardner would hit his first homer in his first 50 at bats. Gardner's at 45 right now (50 plate appearances) so he could still do it before the 50 AB mark is eclipsed.
OTHER THOUGHTS
Via Pete Abe, Wang's next start will in fact be skipped. I think this is a smart move. The rain and the off day will line everyone up to pitch on full rest and Wang needs a day off. I know he wants to pitch and wants to get out there, but...no. He can't try to work out the kinks against the Red Sox in Fenway. Boston's scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 6 games, including double digit scores (10 and 12) twice. It looks as though their bats are starting to wake up and Wang would only help that. Wang has also struggled in Fenway for his career. Pitching in Boston, Wang has a 5.11 ERA, a 1.523 WHIP, and a .60 K/BB. Skipping Wang in Boston can only help the Yankees.
Like I said yesterday, I'd give him one, two his next start is good, before the Yankees find some reason to put him on the DL and let him work his stuff out in Tampa. This could give him time away from the big league club to work out his issues (which seem to be his release point, the elevation on his pitches, his hands, his arm, his body, his landing....everything) without the pressure of pitching in games that matter. It would also give Phil Hughes some Major League innings, which a) would be good for him and b) probably couldn't be any worse than what Wang did. If Wang was running out there giving starts like Ponson and Rasner did last year, that'd be "alright." But lasting no more than 3.2 innings this season is just unacceptable. In Scranton, Hughes is pitching to the tune of a 2.31 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a 6/1 K/BB, and a 9.64 K/9.
For question 1, I asked you all how many innings you think CC will pitch in 2009. 10 out of 18 said 201-220, which is probably about right. For question 2,regarding Burnett's strikeouts, it was a little closer. There were 11 total votes and 4 said 181-200, and 4 said 201+. I'd be more likely to fall into the 181-200 category, but at the rate A.J. is pitching, 201+ seems reachable, no? The Gardner questions almost seem to be a moot point, considering the poor rate of Gardner's hitting so far in '09. Out of the 12 votes regarding steals, no one said BG would get less than 21 steals, and 3 brave souls predicted 40+. 8 of 12 said Gardner would hit his first homer in his first 50 at bats. Gardner's at 45 right now (50 plate appearances) so he could still do it before the 50 AB mark is eclipsed.
OTHER THOUGHTS
Via Pete Abe, Wang's next start will in fact be skipped. I think this is a smart move. The rain and the off day will line everyone up to pitch on full rest and Wang needs a day off. I know he wants to pitch and wants to get out there, but...no. He can't try to work out the kinks against the Red Sox in Fenway. Boston's scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 6 games, including double digit scores (10 and 12) twice. It looks as though their bats are starting to wake up and Wang would only help that. Wang has also struggled in Fenway for his career. Pitching in Boston, Wang has a 5.11 ERA, a 1.523 WHIP, and a .60 K/BB. Skipping Wang in Boston can only help the Yankees.
Like I said yesterday, I'd give him one, two his next start is good, before the Yankees find some reason to put him on the DL and let him work his stuff out in Tampa. This could give him time away from the big league club to work out his issues (which seem to be his release point, the elevation on his pitches, his hands, his arm, his body, his landing....everything) without the pressure of pitching in games that matter. It would also give Phil Hughes some Major League innings, which a) would be good for him and b) probably couldn't be any worse than what Wang did. If Wang was running out there giving starts like Ponson and Rasner did last year, that'd be "alright." But lasting no more than 3.2 innings this season is just unacceptable. In Scranton, Hughes is pitching to the tune of a 2.31 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a 6/1 K/BB, and a 9.64 K/9.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Cleveland Series Wrap Up and Xavier Nady Musings
The Yankees just finished their first series in the new Stadium and it was "meh" to say the least. I was at my girlfriend's house, and was able to watch Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It was good to see some games in person and not have to follow Gameday Audio or Gameday itself. Joba's struggle with command was troubling, but that's gonna happen every so often. Saturday was, well, ugh. Sunday was better. It was nice to see that Burnett didn't fall apart despite walking seven. Granted, those types of days are the exceptions and not the rules.
The new Stadium is definitely playing small, as balls seem to be flying out to right. Maybe it's the weather? Maybe it's the wind? Maybe it's the balls? Maybe it's the players? Who know? But, I say we give it more than one series before we declare the new Stadium Arlington North or Coors East.
SERIES POSITIVES: Well, splitting a four game series is good, I guess. It's generally pretty hard to win three out of four. The offense is still clicking nicely, though, which is good to see. Brian Bruney had a good series; pitching in two games, the right hander threw two perfect innings while striking out two, throwing only 20 pitches between the two outings. Bruney hasn't allowed a baserunner since Opening Day. Are you watching, Wallace Matthews?
SERIES NEGATIVES: Wang. He was just awful again on Saturday. You've gotta wonder if he's near the end of the proverbial rope. I'm assuming (hoping?) that Girardi skips him in Boston this weekend. After that, he'll probably get one or two starts before we all start chanting "We Want Hughes," though I'm sure people are already chanting that.
LOOKING AHEAD: The game tonight against the A's is called, but they've got two more coming up against Oakland. It'll be nice to see the Big-G back in the Bronx and I hope he gets a big hand tomorrow. I feel like the Giambino will always be under-appreciated in the Bronx.
TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .260/.342/.475/.817, 110 OPS+, 20 HR, 70 R
PITCHING: 6.54 ERA, 74 ERA+, 1.584 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.76 K/BB
Nady Musings:
Via Kevin Devaney, Xavier Nady still doesn't have a diagnosis on his right elbow. No matter how much time X misses, it's not good for the Yankees. Sure, I wanted Nick Swisher to play over him, but not this way. While I think Swisher would've eventually played his way into the lineup over Nady--and Swisher is the better player--Xavier's absence hurts. The fourth outfielder is now Melky Cabrera instead of Swish or X. Any time the Yankees have to give more PAs to the Melk-man, it's not a good thing. This could give Damon less time off than Girardi would like, and it most likely means that if Brett Gardner struggles, a trade is going to have to be made. No Nady off the bench means that Swisher and Damon will probably see zero action in CF this year and maybe I'm looking too deep into my fake-crystal ball, but I don't see the Yankees giving Melky the CF job, even if/when Gardner falters. Nady would've also been able to spell Hideki Matsui against tough left handed pitchers if need be. I was never a huge Xavier Nady fan, but his presence on the team was vital to its depth. His injury means more playing time for a lesser player and maybe even an external move. Regardless, I hope X gets a good diagnosis and he's able to play again this season. If not, we've more than likely seen our last of Xavier Nady in the Bronx.
The new Stadium is definitely playing small, as balls seem to be flying out to right. Maybe it's the weather? Maybe it's the wind? Maybe it's the balls? Maybe it's the players? Who know? But, I say we give it more than one series before we declare the new Stadium Arlington North or Coors East.
SERIES POSITIVES: Well, splitting a four game series is good, I guess. It's generally pretty hard to win three out of four. The offense is still clicking nicely, though, which is good to see. Brian Bruney had a good series; pitching in two games, the right hander threw two perfect innings while striking out two, throwing only 20 pitches between the two outings. Bruney hasn't allowed a baserunner since Opening Day. Are you watching, Wallace Matthews?
SERIES NEGATIVES: Wang. He was just awful again on Saturday. You've gotta wonder if he's near the end of the proverbial rope. I'm assuming (hoping?) that Girardi skips him in Boston this weekend. After that, he'll probably get one or two starts before we all start chanting "We Want Hughes," though I'm sure people are already chanting that.
LOOKING AHEAD: The game tonight against the A's is called, but they've got two more coming up against Oakland. It'll be nice to see the Big-G back in the Bronx and I hope he gets a big hand tomorrow. I feel like the Giambino will always be under-appreciated in the Bronx.
TEAM STATS:
OFFENSE: .260/.342/.475/.817, 110 OPS+, 20 HR, 70 R
PITCHING: 6.54 ERA, 74 ERA+, 1.584 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.76 K/BB
Nady Musings:
Via Kevin Devaney, Xavier Nady still doesn't have a diagnosis on his right elbow. No matter how much time X misses, it's not good for the Yankees. Sure, I wanted Nick Swisher to play over him, but not this way. While I think Swisher would've eventually played his way into the lineup over Nady--and Swisher is the better player--Xavier's absence hurts. The fourth outfielder is now Melky Cabrera instead of Swish or X. Any time the Yankees have to give more PAs to the Melk-man, it's not a good thing. This could give Damon less time off than Girardi would like, and it most likely means that if Brett Gardner struggles, a trade is going to have to be made. No Nady off the bench means that Swisher and Damon will probably see zero action in CF this year and maybe I'm looking too deep into my fake-crystal ball, but I don't see the Yankees giving Melky the CF job, even if/when Gardner falters. Nady would've also been able to spell Hideki Matsui against tough left handed pitchers if need be. I was never a huge Xavier Nady fan, but his presence on the team was vital to its depth. His injury means more playing time for a lesser player and maybe even an external move. Regardless, I hope X gets a good diagnosis and he's able to play again this season. If not, we've more than likely seen our last of Xavier Nady in the Bronx.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Tampa Bay Series Wrap Up
After a disastrous 15-5 loss on Monday night, the Yankees came back strong behind A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte to win their first series with Tampa this season. While Monday night's game was just a mess, the pitching of Nick Swisher proved that he is clearly the greatest player to ever put on a Yankee uniform. This may or may not be hyperbole, but I don't care. After all, I am the self-appointed president of the Nick Swisher Fan Club, right?
SERIES POSITIVES: Two thirds of the starters in this series did a fantastic job. The two combined to allow just 5 runs in 15.1 innings (2.98 ERA), while surrendering only 9 hits and 2 walks between them (.728 WHIP) and striking out 13 (7.8 K/9, 6.5 K/BB). Both Burnett and Pettitte have been incredibly sharp in their first two starts, both of which came after awful outings from Chien Ming Wang. Which brings us to...
SERIES NEGATIVES: Chien Ming Wang. While Dave Eiland said he looked good in the bullpen before the game, Wang just couldn't get it right on the mound. He allowed 8 runs in just 1 inning of work (three of which scored on a grand slam by Carlos Pena, given up by Jonathan Albaladejo). That's two bad starts in a row for Wang, but we all seem to know what the problem is: Wang isn't getting on top of his pitches, leaving his release point too high, and it's leaving his sinker up in the zone to get crushed.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees open up the new Stadium today against the Indians. This game features a great pitching matchup between the last two AL Cy Young Award winners: CC Sabathia (2007) and Cliff Lee (2008). Lee has looked pretty bad in his two starts so far in '09, giving up 17 hits and 5 walks in only 10 innings of work. On the plus side, he has struck out 10 batters, good for a 9.0 K/9. Lee's FIP stands at 4.13, though, so some positive correction for his 9.90 ERA should be coming--let's just hope it's not today! Go Yanks!
SERIES POSITIVES: Two thirds of the starters in this series did a fantastic job. The two combined to allow just 5 runs in 15.1 innings (2.98 ERA), while surrendering only 9 hits and 2 walks between them (.728 WHIP) and striking out 13 (7.8 K/9, 6.5 K/BB). Both Burnett and Pettitte have been incredibly sharp in their first two starts, both of which came after awful outings from Chien Ming Wang. Which brings us to...
SERIES NEGATIVES: Chien Ming Wang. While Dave Eiland said he looked good in the bullpen before the game, Wang just couldn't get it right on the mound. He allowed 8 runs in just 1 inning of work (three of which scored on a grand slam by Carlos Pena, given up by Jonathan Albaladejo). That's two bad starts in a row for Wang, but we all seem to know what the problem is: Wang isn't getting on top of his pitches, leaving his release point too high, and it's leaving his sinker up in the zone to get crushed.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees open up the new Stadium today against the Indians. This game features a great pitching matchup between the last two AL Cy Young Award winners: CC Sabathia (2007) and Cliff Lee (2008). Lee has looked pretty bad in his two starts so far in '09, giving up 17 hits and 5 walks in only 10 innings of work. On the plus side, he has struck out 10 batters, good for a 9.0 K/9. Lee's FIP stands at 4.13, though, so some positive correction for his 9.90 ERA should be coming--let's just hope it's not today! Go Yanks!
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Center Field Options
Brett Gardner seems to be struggling at the plate a little bit (.227/.261/.273, though he is 2-2 in steals). Melky's hitting just as bad at .250/.250/.250. I know it's early, but we all know how much the Yankees love instant gratification. So, who could the Yankees turn to outside the organization to fill a potential offensive black hole in CF?
Internally, the Yankees could switch to Nick "The Greatest Player in Yankee History" Swisher or Johnny Damon in center. While both of these moves would be an offensive upgrade over Gardner and Cabrera, they are defensive downgrades from Gardner. Swisher said he didn't like playing the position, and the numbers bear that out. Swisher is -9.5 UZR/150 in center for his career. However, his offense could make up for this, as it'd be a huge upgrade over Gardy. Swisher, and Damon for that matter, could probably manage CF without looking like complete morons, but I'd rather not have Swisher play a position he doesn't like or Damon play a position that he may not have the health to play anymore.
Externally, there's Milwaukee's Mike Cameron. Cameron was the subject of much debate in Yankee land over the offseason and there was a slight possibility that he was going to be the Yankees Opening Day CF. Now, the Yankees need another aging outfielder about as much as they need Joba in the bullpen, but Cameron is in the last year of his contract and would just be a one real rental. Cameron has a career line of .250/.340/.448/.778, good for a 106 OPS+. So, at the plate, Cameron has been just slightly above average. In the field, Cameron is a plus player, coming in at 5.2 UZR/150 in CF. Again, Mike has been above average for his career in the field. Yes he's old and we all want the Yankees to go with the young guys, but if Gardner doesn't develop over the next month or so, Mr. Cameron will look better and better.
Next, there's Texas's Marlon Byrd. He's five years younger than Cameron and is a pretty similar hitter. Byrd's got a career line of .272/.342/.409/.751. That's only a 98 OPS+, so very slightly below average. Byrd may not offer much in terms of power, but he's got a decent OBP and has a 2.6 UZR/150 in CF for his career (424 games). Byrd is also on a one year deal, having avoided arbitration with Texas. Byrd could be the better option over Cameron since he's younger and could be brought back to the team, since the Yankees could lose Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, and Hideki Matsui.
Those are the two probable options for centerfield in my opinion. However, I'm not advocating for B-Cash to get on the horn and make a trade right away. I'm more than willing to give Brett Gardner around 300 at bats to see if he can turn this slow start around. Melky, though, I really have no faith in. He's had his chance and he is what he is: a below average player.
Internally, the Yankees could switch to Nick "The Greatest Player in Yankee History" Swisher or Johnny Damon in center. While both of these moves would be an offensive upgrade over Gardner and Cabrera, they are defensive downgrades from Gardner. Swisher said he didn't like playing the position, and the numbers bear that out. Swisher is -9.5 UZR/150 in center for his career. However, his offense could make up for this, as it'd be a huge upgrade over Gardy. Swisher, and Damon for that matter, could probably manage CF without looking like complete morons, but I'd rather not have Swisher play a position he doesn't like or Damon play a position that he may not have the health to play anymore.
Externally, there's Milwaukee's Mike Cameron. Cameron was the subject of much debate in Yankee land over the offseason and there was a slight possibility that he was going to be the Yankees Opening Day CF. Now, the Yankees need another aging outfielder about as much as they need Joba in the bullpen, but Cameron is in the last year of his contract and would just be a one real rental. Cameron has a career line of .250/.340/.448/.778, good for a 106 OPS+. So, at the plate, Cameron has been just slightly above average. In the field, Cameron is a plus player, coming in at 5.2 UZR/150 in CF. Again, Mike has been above average for his career in the field. Yes he's old and we all want the Yankees to go with the young guys, but if Gardner doesn't develop over the next month or so, Mr. Cameron will look better and better.
Next, there's Texas's Marlon Byrd. He's five years younger than Cameron and is a pretty similar hitter. Byrd's got a career line of .272/.342/.409/.751. That's only a 98 OPS+, so very slightly below average. Byrd may not offer much in terms of power, but he's got a decent OBP and has a 2.6 UZR/150 in CF for his career (424 games). Byrd is also on a one year deal, having avoided arbitration with Texas. Byrd could be the better option over Cameron since he's younger and could be brought back to the team, since the Yankees could lose Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, and Hideki Matsui.
Those are the two probable options for centerfield in my opinion. However, I'm not advocating for B-Cash to get on the horn and make a trade right away. I'm more than willing to give Brett Gardner around 300 at bats to see if he can turn this slow start around. Melky, though, I really have no faith in. He's had his chance and he is what he is: a below average player.
About Last Night...
BLOWOUT LOSS
Yeah, last night was ugly. Wang couldn't get his sinker down and he got absolutely tagged. There really isn't anything positive to take from last night, is there? At least Nick Swisher pitched a scoreless inning. I think this is concrete proof that he is the greatest player in Yankee history.
The only thing the Yankees can hope to do is rebound tonight with A.J. Burnett on the mound. He righted the ship in Baltimore after Sabathia and Wang had bad games to open the season, so maybe he can do it again. In 2008, A.J. had a 3.15 ERA vs. the Rays, to go along with 26 strikeouts in just 20 innings of work.
TOP OF THE ORDER SLUMPING
Derek Jeter is one for his last 20 with only one walk, while Johnny Damon is two for his last 16, with two walks. With these two slumping, it's gonna be hard for the Yankees to come into some runs--unless of course Nick Swisher keeps hitting.
CODY RANSOM
I didn't watch the game last night, but I followed it on Gameday and briefly listened to Gameday Audio, along with getting relays of the game from my girlfriend via the phone. From what I "watched," listened to, and heard, Cody Ransom is just a mess. Come on, Joe. I know it's early, but it's time to give Cody a game or three off. Put Ramiro Pena in the lineup and see what he can do. There's absolutely no way he could be any worse than Cody Ransom has been.
NICK SWISHER KEEPS HITTING
Swish added his third home run of the year last night, bringing his season line to .450/.542/1.150/1.692, 3 HR, 10 RBI. He's fourth in the AL in average, third in OBP, first in slugging and OPS, fourth in homers and third in RBI. These numbers are obviously going to come down, but they're fun while they last.
And while we can be easily swayed by these early stats, I think Swisher is showing everyone why he should've been the staring RF instead of Xavier Nady. Joe Girardi has said he still sees Xavier as an every day player and won't go with the hot hand. This is something I don't understand. Why not go with the hot hand? It hasn't mattered with Mark Teixeira missing the last two games with a wrist injury and Swisher manning first, but when Tex comes back, Swisher needs to stay in the lineup. Nady's been hitting alright at .280/.308/.440, so maybe he can stay in there. Maybe someone else needs a seat.
HIDEKI MATSUI STRUGGLING
Matsui is hitting only .125/.190/.292 at this point. Perhaps when Tex returns to the lineup (hopefully tonight), Matsui can take a night off and Swisher could take over the DH duties. I doubt this happens, but Girardi needs to find a way to work Swisher into the every day lineup. He's hitting far too well to be kept out of it.
The lesson for the day: Nick Swisher is awesome.
Yeah, last night was ugly. Wang couldn't get his sinker down and he got absolutely tagged. There really isn't anything positive to take from last night, is there? At least Nick Swisher pitched a scoreless inning. I think this is concrete proof that he is the greatest player in Yankee history.
The only thing the Yankees can hope to do is rebound tonight with A.J. Burnett on the mound. He righted the ship in Baltimore after Sabathia and Wang had bad games to open the season, so maybe he can do it again. In 2008, A.J. had a 3.15 ERA vs. the Rays, to go along with 26 strikeouts in just 20 innings of work.
TOP OF THE ORDER SLUMPING
Derek Jeter is one for his last 20 with only one walk, while Johnny Damon is two for his last 16, with two walks. With these two slumping, it's gonna be hard for the Yankees to come into some runs--unless of course Nick Swisher keeps hitting.
CODY RANSOM
I didn't watch the game last night, but I followed it on Gameday and briefly listened to Gameday Audio, along with getting relays of the game from my girlfriend via the phone. From what I "watched," listened to, and heard, Cody Ransom is just a mess. Come on, Joe. I know it's early, but it's time to give Cody a game or three off. Put Ramiro Pena in the lineup and see what he can do. There's absolutely no way he could be any worse than Cody Ransom has been.
NICK SWISHER KEEPS HITTING
Swish added his third home run of the year last night, bringing his season line to .450/.542/1.150/1.692, 3 HR, 10 RBI. He's fourth in the AL in average, third in OBP, first in slugging and OPS, fourth in homers and third in RBI. These numbers are obviously going to come down, but they're fun while they last.
And while we can be easily swayed by these early stats, I think Swisher is showing everyone why he should've been the staring RF instead of Xavier Nady. Joe Girardi has said he still sees Xavier as an every day player and won't go with the hot hand. This is something I don't understand. Why not go with the hot hand? It hasn't mattered with Mark Teixeira missing the last two games with a wrist injury and Swisher manning first, but when Tex comes back, Swisher needs to stay in the lineup. Nady's been hitting alright at .280/.308/.440, so maybe he can stay in there. Maybe someone else needs a seat.
HIDEKI MATSUI STRUGGLING
Matsui is hitting only .125/.190/.292 at this point. Perhaps when Tex returns to the lineup (hopefully tonight), Matsui can take a night off and Swisher could take over the DH duties. I doubt this happens, but Girardi needs to find a way to work Swisher into the every day lineup. He's hitting far too well to be kept out of it.
The lesson for the day: Nick Swisher is awesome.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Kansas City Series Wrap Up
Joe Girardi made some questionable bullpen moves yesterday, as the Yankees fell to the Royals, 6-4. The Yanks, however, still took two out of three from KC, winning Friday night and Saturday night, with strong pitching performances from Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia.
SERIES POSITIVES: The starting pitching was the most inspiring thing in this Yankees/Royals series. Friday night featured a vintage version of Andy Pettitte, Saturday brought us the CC Sabathia we've all come to know and love, and Sunday was Joba Chamberlain's first start of the year and if it weren't for said questionable bullpen moves, Joba would've had his first win of the year.
SERIES NEGATIVES: Cody Ransom. We knew he wouldn't be A-Rod, or anything close to it for that matter, but Cody is definitely playing well below where we thought he would. His play in the field isn't looking all the great either. Maybe General Joe will throw Ramiro Pena a start in the coming days, just to shake things up. He can't be worse than Ransom, right?
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees open a three game series in Tampa tonight. Both teams come in 3-3, trying to establish an early rhythm in the rough AL East. The pitching matchups are: Wang v. Kazmir, Burnett v. Garza, and Pettitte v. Sonnanstine.
TEAM STATS TO THIS POINT:
OFFENSE: .262/.336/.452/.789, 108 OPS+, 7 HR, 35 R
PITCHING: 4.41 ERA, 105 ERA+, 3.4 BB/9, 7.1 BB/9, 2.11 K/BB
A sad note today as the baseball world lost its second member in a week. Legendary Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas died today before the defending champs' match-up with the Nats in Washington tonight. Kalas was truly one of the greats and Phillies games won't be the same without him. RIP Harry Kalas and Nick Adenhart.
SERIES POSITIVES: The starting pitching was the most inspiring thing in this Yankees/Royals series. Friday night featured a vintage version of Andy Pettitte, Saturday brought us the CC Sabathia we've all come to know and love, and Sunday was Joba Chamberlain's first start of the year and if it weren't for said questionable bullpen moves, Joba would've had his first win of the year.
SERIES NEGATIVES: Cody Ransom. We knew he wouldn't be A-Rod, or anything close to it for that matter, but Cody is definitely playing well below where we thought he would. His play in the field isn't looking all the great either. Maybe General Joe will throw Ramiro Pena a start in the coming days, just to shake things up. He can't be worse than Ransom, right?
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees open a three game series in Tampa tonight. Both teams come in 3-3, trying to establish an early rhythm in the rough AL East. The pitching matchups are: Wang v. Kazmir, Burnett v. Garza, and Pettitte v. Sonnanstine.
TEAM STATS TO THIS POINT:
OFFENSE: .262/.336/.452/.789, 108 OPS+, 7 HR, 35 R
PITCHING: 4.41 ERA, 105 ERA+, 3.4 BB/9, 7.1 BB/9, 2.11 K/BB
A sad note today as the baseball world lost its second member in a week. Legendary Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas died today before the defending champs' match-up with the Nats in Washington tonight. Kalas was truly one of the greats and Phillies games won't be the same without him. RIP Harry Kalas and Nick Adenhart.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Baltimore Series Wrap Up
AJ Burnett and Nick Swisher saved the season yesterday. The former struck out six in 5.1 innings to earn his first win as a Yankee and Nick Swisher homered and drove in five to help the Yankees to an 11-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Mark Teixeira tied the game at one early on with his first homer as a Yankee. After two bad games, the Yankees looked great yesterday.
SERIES POSITIVES: The offense was great this week, scoring 21 runs across the three games. Obviously, that's a pace that they won't keep up but it's great to see the bats getting going early. Robinson Cano was especially surprising, drawing three walks in the opening series. Hopefully he and Kevin Long worked to develop Robbie's patience and not just a new stance.
SERIES NEGATIVES: CC stumbled in his first start as a Yankee and Chien Ming Wang didn't look great in his first start since my 21st birthday (June 15, 2008). Both struggled with their release points and had trouble keeping the ball low in the zone. I was annoyed, but I'm far from worried. It was the first game for both of them. Chances are, this won't be a trend for CC and the Wanger. The bullpen also had one bad inning, but aside from that, they've been fine.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees take on the Royals for a three game series in KC and since I'm going home for the weekend, I'll be able to watch my first games of the season. I'm pumped. This afternoon, they'll face former mate Sidney Ponson and, if we're lucky, Krazy Kyle Farnsworth will make another appearance for the Royals.
TEAM STATS TO THIS POINT: OFFENSE: .297/.368/.559/.927, 141 OPS+, 6 HR, 21 R -- PITCHING: 6.84 ERA, 67 ERA+ 1.800 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.O7 K/BB
SERIES POSITIVES: The offense was great this week, scoring 21 runs across the three games. Obviously, that's a pace that they won't keep up but it's great to see the bats getting going early. Robinson Cano was especially surprising, drawing three walks in the opening series. Hopefully he and Kevin Long worked to develop Robbie's patience and not just a new stance.
SERIES NEGATIVES: CC stumbled in his first start as a Yankee and Chien Ming Wang didn't look great in his first start since my 21st birthday (June 15, 2008). Both struggled with their release points and had trouble keeping the ball low in the zone. I was annoyed, but I'm far from worried. It was the first game for both of them. Chances are, this won't be a trend for CC and the Wanger. The bullpen also had one bad inning, but aside from that, they've been fine.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Yankees take on the Royals for a three game series in KC and since I'm going home for the weekend, I'll be able to watch my first games of the season. I'm pumped. This afternoon, they'll face former mate Sidney Ponson and, if we're lucky, Krazy Kyle Farnsworth will make another appearance for the Royals.
TEAM STATS TO THIS POINT: OFFENSE: .297/.368/.559/.927, 141 OPS+, 6 HR, 21 R -- PITCHING: 6.84 ERA, 67 ERA+ 1.800 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.O7 K/BB
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Ramblings
Good evening everyone. Before I have to run off to my Depictions of Italian-Americans in Cinema class, I thought I'd share a few thoughts.
First, Opening Day was a disappointment. It was a crappy game and we didn't get what we expected. We'll get 'em for the next 161, though. That didn't stop Wallace Matthews from making a stupid argument though. How the first game of the year was a case for Joba in the pen is just beyond me. The Yankees were trailing for most of the game. How would a great relief performance have helped? It's not the bullpen's fault Rob Thompson made a bad call that got Nady called out. It's not the bullpen's fault Girardi put a sac bunt on instead of trying to score the run. It's not the bullpen's fault Derek Jeter couldn't hit a fly ball to get Ramiro Pena home. It's not the bullpen's fault that Mark Teixeira couldn't get Pena home with two outs. Whatever.
Second, it's a bittersweet weekend/week for UConn basketball. The men were eliminated by MUS in the Final Four in what was probably their worst game of the year. Shaky shooting, dismal defense, foul free throw shooting, and repulsive rebounding. On the other hand, the women completed a perfect 39-0 season, beating Lousiville last night in the championship. Congrats, girls.
Third, there's two articles from Beyond the Boxscore that caught my attention. The first is one about catching prospects and their arms. This article tells us one thing we knew for sure: Jesus Montero is a much better hitter than he is a fielder. 75% of guys are able to steal off of him successfully. Ouch. The surprising thing is how poor Austin Romine's percentage was: 82.4%. That's just...wow. Yuck. What's "unsettling" about this is that Romine was supposed to be the good defender, not the bad one! I guess this is just another divide between stats and scouts that will have to work itself out. On a related note, there's the second article about CF prospects. Austin Jackson was basically the second worst minor league CF last year. This is a stark contrast to scouts who've touted him as very good in the field. Austin's defense (and his K/BB rate) are something we'll have to keep an eye on this year. If the defense can't improve, he might be relegated to a corner OF position and though A-Jax has a pretty good bad, it's not good enough to be a LF/RF bat.
First, Opening Day was a disappointment. It was a crappy game and we didn't get what we expected. We'll get 'em for the next 161, though. That didn't stop Wallace Matthews from making a stupid argument though. How the first game of the year was a case for Joba in the pen is just beyond me. The Yankees were trailing for most of the game. How would a great relief performance have helped? It's not the bullpen's fault Rob Thompson made a bad call that got Nady called out. It's not the bullpen's fault Girardi put a sac bunt on instead of trying to score the run. It's not the bullpen's fault Derek Jeter couldn't hit a fly ball to get Ramiro Pena home. It's not the bullpen's fault that Mark Teixeira couldn't get Pena home with two outs. Whatever.
Second, it's a bittersweet weekend/week for UConn basketball. The men were eliminated by MUS in the Final Four in what was probably their worst game of the year. Shaky shooting, dismal defense, foul free throw shooting, and repulsive rebounding. On the other hand, the women completed a perfect 39-0 season, beating Lousiville last night in the championship. Congrats, girls.
Third, there's two articles from Beyond the Boxscore that caught my attention. The first is one about catching prospects and their arms. This article tells us one thing we knew for sure: Jesus Montero is a much better hitter than he is a fielder. 75% of guys are able to steal off of him successfully. Ouch. The surprising thing is how poor Austin Romine's percentage was: 82.4%. That's just...wow. Yuck. What's "unsettling" about this is that Romine was supposed to be the good defender, not the bad one! I guess this is just another divide between stats and scouts that will have to work itself out. On a related note, there's the second article about CF prospects. Austin Jackson was basically the second worst minor league CF last year. This is a stark contrast to scouts who've touted him as very good in the field. Austin's defense (and his K/BB rate) are something we'll have to keep an eye on this year. If the defense can't improve, he might be relegated to a corner OF position and though A-Jax has a pretty good bad, it's not good enough to be a LF/RF bat.
Monday, April 6, 2009
IT'S OPENING DAY!
Ladies and gentlemen, the start of the baseball season is upon us. Today is Opening Day. Today is a holiday for all of us baseball fans, so let's get out there and celebrate.
Go CC, go Yankees, and most importantly, go baseball.
Play ball, boys!
Go CC, go Yankees, and most importantly, go baseball.
Play ball, boys!
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Division Preview Series Part Six: AL EAST!
Opening Night is a mere four hours away so let's get to the toughest division in baseball: the AL East!
1. New York Yankees Call it a homer pick but I believe it's totally logical. The Yankees were an 89 win team last year in a down year in which they had awful starting pitching at the beginning of the year--Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy--and awful starting pitching in the middle of the year--Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner. The rotation has been fixed by bringing in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, along with re-adding Chien-Ming Wang and finally making the smart move by putting Joba Chamberlain into the starting rotation. The Yankees also have a great bullpen, led by Mariano Rivera. Young Phil Coke will be with the team for an entire season and he was brilliant in his time last year, as well as in spring training. Damaso Marte is a solid pitcher with a good track record and Jonathan Albaladejo has excellent potential. Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez are "wild cards" in some minds, but I don't think so. They may not be all-stars, but they're incredibly solid. The Yankees also have a great lineup to put out on the field. While they'll be without A-Rod for at least the first month, adding Mark Teixeira will help alleviate that, along with a healthy Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui. Even if A-Rod's absence becomes an issue at the plate, the Yankees can win with pitching.
STRENGTHS: For the first time in a while, pitching is the main strength of the New York Yankees. The starting rotation could be the best in all of baseball when it's all said and done and the bullpen is also very good, even without Joba in the "all-important" eighth inning. The offense can probably still put up well over 800 runs this season, even if A-Rod is out for a while, so that's a strength, too.
WEAKNESSES: Staying healthy could be a problem for the Yankees. Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter are no spring chickens, Jorge's coming off shoulder surgery, and Hideki Matsui has the knees of an old woman. A.J. Burnett has a history of injuries, but he appears to have conditioned himself well enough to put those problems in the past. Health risks are an issue for any team, and the Yankees are no exception. If I had to pick an on field weakness for the Bronx Bombers, I'd say defense up the middle could be a problem. Jorge's never been great defensively, Jeter is Jeter, and Cano is all over the damn place. However, the OF defense has the chance to be stellar with Damon in left, Gardner in center and (hopefully later when Girardi realizes he may've made a mistake by starting Nady) Swisher in right.
Player to Watch: Jorge Posada. Jorge is the most underrated Yankee and one of the most underrated players of his generation. His absence from the lineup last year was the main reason the offense struggled as badly as it did. If Jorge can come back and catch 100-120 games, the Yankee offense should recover. If he can't, well, at least they have the pitching to make up for it.
2. Boston Red Sox The Sawx will finish in second and grab the wildcard again in '09. They return a great top three in Diauske, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester, but after that, it's kind of shaky. Brad Penny and John Smoltz are health risks, Clay Buccholz is as unproven as Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy and Justin Masterson has been moved to the pen full time. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are coming off of career years (that they're unlikely to repeat or improve upon), Jason Bay is playing a full season with the Monster to his left, and David Ortiz is still a good hitter. Boston's lineup should be fine if Oritz and Mike Lowell stay healthy. However, I don't think they've got the rotation to keep up with the Yankees this season.
STRENGTHS: Boston has a very good bullpen. The Yankees were better as relievers last year (Yankees: 3.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9; Sox: 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9) but don't tell anyone at ESPN. Regardless, Boston's pen is a strength and the addition of Takashi Saito could improve it even more.
WEAKNESSES: Like the Yankees: health. After the Yankees grabbed three of the four top free agents out there (Tex, CC, A.J.), the Sox went shopping for cheaper players. They got John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, and Rocco Baldelli. These are good pick ups because they're low-risk, high reward. However, they're all giant red flags for injury. Penny's coming off a 94 inning season, Smoltz won't be ready til May, and Saito's shoulder caused the Dodgers to not even give him a second look. Rocco Baldelli is a great story and someone we can all root for, but his health is a serious question and any returns he gives Boston will probably be minimal. If these players perform well, Theo Epstein once again looks like a genius. However, if they don't, he could come off looking foolish.
Player to Watch: Diasuke Matsuzaka was so lucky last year it's not even funny. His ERA was due for a correction all year and he never got it. It's highly unlikely he can continue pitching at a very high level while walking so many people. We'll have to watch this year to see if that ERA gets corrected.
3. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays The Rays came out of no where and won the AL East last year, ultimately falling short to the Phillies in the World Series. They had a great blend of young talent, good pitching, and good defense last year, and they return basically the same team with a few additions. So, why the third place finish? It has nothing to do with them playing with "expectations" this year like Steve Phillips has said, but rather the fact that they, too, were a little lucky last year. All five of their starters made at least 27 starts. That sort of health is beyond lucky. I will be shocked if that trend repeats itself this year. While I'm more or less confident that Shields and Garza can stay healthy, I'm unsure about Kazmir's health (regardless of how good he is) and Andy Sonnanstine could revert to his '07 form.
STRENGTHS: If the starters stay healthy, they could push for second against Boston. They have a great top three, just like Boston and New York, but with David Price's demotion to the AAA, it may not be great. However, when he gets called up, they'll be alright. The starting staff should be their best feature this year, with their defense in a close second.
WEAKNESSES: The Rays' lineup doesn't scream "fantastic" (9th in runs scored last year, 13th/4th/8th in AVG/OBP/SLG in the AL) but it's not too bad either. The addition of Pat Burrell to DH is a very good one and will add some power to the middle of the lineup but there are some questions: Will B.J. Upton's power come around? Will Evan Longoria continue to hit at such a high level? Can Carl Crawford bounce back? Can Dioner Navarro repeat a career year?
Player to Watch: Evan Longoria. I mean, come on. Is this even in question? The reigning AL Rookie of the Year will have all eyes on him this year, watching for a sophomore slump. This slick fielding power hitting third baseman could be the best player on the Rays this year and for years to come.
It's worth noting here that I think the division race will be a very fierce competition all year. The top three teams will most likely be separated by no more than 3-4 games at the end of the year. I don't see any team winning more than 95 games in this incredibly tough division, either.
4. Baltimore Orioles The O's are gonna climb out of the cellar this year. However, it's not because of any real improvement, but rather the fact that the Jays are pretty dismal this year.
STRENGTHS: The OF trio of Scott--Jones--Markakis is probably the best defensive trio in all of baseball and they will probably be the core of Baltimore's offense as well. Markakis is a budding star and should be a household name by the end of '09.
WEAKNESSES: Pitching. Jeremy Guthrie is no slouch, but he's absolutely nothing to write home about. Sadly for the O's, he's their "ace." Guthrie's not like Sidney Ponson or anything, but he's also no where near Kazmir, Beckett, and Sabathia. After him, it really doesn't get much better. If the O's had a better offense, they could possibly hit their way out of such bad pitching but...they really don't. Their offense was middle of the road last season (8/8/5 in AVG/OBP/SLG) and that was with Aubrey Huff's 2nd best season and Luke Scott's 2nd best season.
Player to Watch: The next Jesus: Matt Weiters. Sorry, just thought I'd add to the hyperbole around him. He's going to be great, probably not this season, but he will contend for the AL ROY award.
5. Toronto Blue Jays Ugh. I almost feel bad for the Jays. They were 7 games under their pytahg record in '08 (damn bad luck!) and if they played in other divisions, they could be a contender. However, they've now lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees and Shaun Marcum to Tommy John Surgery.
STRENGTHS: Roy Halladay. That's about it, really. The offense could improve this year, though, as Alex Rios continues to develop and Vernon Wells had a bounce back '08 (sign of good to come?) and the addition of Travis Snider. The bullpen outside is also a strength. But with a rotation like that, will it matter?
WEAKNESSES: Rotation. Am I overstating this? Perhaps, but I really don't see the Jays having a strong pitching season.
Player to Watch: Travis Snider. He's my pre-season AL ROY pick.
On another note, my girlfriend and I bought tickets to Saturday May 16th's game against the Twins. I'm absolutely pumped for my first trip to the new Stadium. Enjoy the game tonight and celebrate the start of REAL BASEBALL! LET'S GO YANKEES!
1. New York Yankees Call it a homer pick but I believe it's totally logical. The Yankees were an 89 win team last year in a down year in which they had awful starting pitching at the beginning of the year--Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy--and awful starting pitching in the middle of the year--Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner. The rotation has been fixed by bringing in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, along with re-adding Chien-Ming Wang and finally making the smart move by putting Joba Chamberlain into the starting rotation. The Yankees also have a great bullpen, led by Mariano Rivera. Young Phil Coke will be with the team for an entire season and he was brilliant in his time last year, as well as in spring training. Damaso Marte is a solid pitcher with a good track record and Jonathan Albaladejo has excellent potential. Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez are "wild cards" in some minds, but I don't think so. They may not be all-stars, but they're incredibly solid. The Yankees also have a great lineup to put out on the field. While they'll be without A-Rod for at least the first month, adding Mark Teixeira will help alleviate that, along with a healthy Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui. Even if A-Rod's absence becomes an issue at the plate, the Yankees can win with pitching.
STRENGTHS: For the first time in a while, pitching is the main strength of the New York Yankees. The starting rotation could be the best in all of baseball when it's all said and done and the bullpen is also very good, even without Joba in the "all-important" eighth inning. The offense can probably still put up well over 800 runs this season, even if A-Rod is out for a while, so that's a strength, too.
WEAKNESSES: Staying healthy could be a problem for the Yankees. Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter are no spring chickens, Jorge's coming off shoulder surgery, and Hideki Matsui has the knees of an old woman. A.J. Burnett has a history of injuries, but he appears to have conditioned himself well enough to put those problems in the past. Health risks are an issue for any team, and the Yankees are no exception. If I had to pick an on field weakness for the Bronx Bombers, I'd say defense up the middle could be a problem. Jorge's never been great defensively, Jeter is Jeter, and Cano is all over the damn place. However, the OF defense has the chance to be stellar with Damon in left, Gardner in center and (hopefully later when Girardi realizes he may've made a mistake by starting Nady) Swisher in right.
Player to Watch: Jorge Posada. Jorge is the most underrated Yankee and one of the most underrated players of his generation. His absence from the lineup last year was the main reason the offense struggled as badly as it did. If Jorge can come back and catch 100-120 games, the Yankee offense should recover. If he can't, well, at least they have the pitching to make up for it.
2. Boston Red Sox The Sawx will finish in second and grab the wildcard again in '09. They return a great top three in Diauske, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester, but after that, it's kind of shaky. Brad Penny and John Smoltz are health risks, Clay Buccholz is as unproven as Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy and Justin Masterson has been moved to the pen full time. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are coming off of career years (that they're unlikely to repeat or improve upon), Jason Bay is playing a full season with the Monster to his left, and David Ortiz is still a good hitter. Boston's lineup should be fine if Oritz and Mike Lowell stay healthy. However, I don't think they've got the rotation to keep up with the Yankees this season.
STRENGTHS: Boston has a very good bullpen. The Yankees were better as relievers last year (Yankees: 3.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9; Sox: 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9) but don't tell anyone at ESPN. Regardless, Boston's pen is a strength and the addition of Takashi Saito could improve it even more.
WEAKNESSES: Like the Yankees: health. After the Yankees grabbed three of the four top free agents out there (Tex, CC, A.J.), the Sox went shopping for cheaper players. They got John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, and Rocco Baldelli. These are good pick ups because they're low-risk, high reward. However, they're all giant red flags for injury. Penny's coming off a 94 inning season, Smoltz won't be ready til May, and Saito's shoulder caused the Dodgers to not even give him a second look. Rocco Baldelli is a great story and someone we can all root for, but his health is a serious question and any returns he gives Boston will probably be minimal. If these players perform well, Theo Epstein once again looks like a genius. However, if they don't, he could come off looking foolish.
Player to Watch: Diasuke Matsuzaka was so lucky last year it's not even funny. His ERA was due for a correction all year and he never got it. It's highly unlikely he can continue pitching at a very high level while walking so many people. We'll have to watch this year to see if that ERA gets corrected.
3. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays The Rays came out of no where and won the AL East last year, ultimately falling short to the Phillies in the World Series. They had a great blend of young talent, good pitching, and good defense last year, and they return basically the same team with a few additions. So, why the third place finish? It has nothing to do with them playing with "expectations" this year like Steve Phillips has said, but rather the fact that they, too, were a little lucky last year. All five of their starters made at least 27 starts. That sort of health is beyond lucky. I will be shocked if that trend repeats itself this year. While I'm more or less confident that Shields and Garza can stay healthy, I'm unsure about Kazmir's health (regardless of how good he is) and Andy Sonnanstine could revert to his '07 form.
STRENGTHS: If the starters stay healthy, they could push for second against Boston. They have a great top three, just like Boston and New York, but with David Price's demotion to the AAA, it may not be great. However, when he gets called up, they'll be alright. The starting staff should be their best feature this year, with their defense in a close second.
WEAKNESSES: The Rays' lineup doesn't scream "fantastic" (9th in runs scored last year, 13th/4th/8th in AVG/OBP/SLG in the AL) but it's not too bad either. The addition of Pat Burrell to DH is a very good one and will add some power to the middle of the lineup but there are some questions: Will B.J. Upton's power come around? Will Evan Longoria continue to hit at such a high level? Can Carl Crawford bounce back? Can Dioner Navarro repeat a career year?
Player to Watch: Evan Longoria. I mean, come on. Is this even in question? The reigning AL Rookie of the Year will have all eyes on him this year, watching for a sophomore slump. This slick fielding power hitting third baseman could be the best player on the Rays this year and for years to come.
It's worth noting here that I think the division race will be a very fierce competition all year. The top three teams will most likely be separated by no more than 3-4 games at the end of the year. I don't see any team winning more than 95 games in this incredibly tough division, either.
4. Baltimore Orioles The O's are gonna climb out of the cellar this year. However, it's not because of any real improvement, but rather the fact that the Jays are pretty dismal this year.
STRENGTHS: The OF trio of Scott--Jones--Markakis is probably the best defensive trio in all of baseball and they will probably be the core of Baltimore's offense as well. Markakis is a budding star and should be a household name by the end of '09.
WEAKNESSES: Pitching. Jeremy Guthrie is no slouch, but he's absolutely nothing to write home about. Sadly for the O's, he's their "ace." Guthrie's not like Sidney Ponson or anything, but he's also no where near Kazmir, Beckett, and Sabathia. After him, it really doesn't get much better. If the O's had a better offense, they could possibly hit their way out of such bad pitching but...they really don't. Their offense was middle of the road last season (8/8/5 in AVG/OBP/SLG) and that was with Aubrey Huff's 2nd best season and Luke Scott's 2nd best season.
Player to Watch: The next Jesus: Matt Weiters. Sorry, just thought I'd add to the hyperbole around him. He's going to be great, probably not this season, but he will contend for the AL ROY award.
5. Toronto Blue Jays Ugh. I almost feel bad for the Jays. They were 7 games under their pytahg record in '08 (damn bad luck!) and if they played in other divisions, they could be a contender. However, they've now lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees and Shaun Marcum to Tommy John Surgery.
STRENGTHS: Roy Halladay. That's about it, really. The offense could improve this year, though, as Alex Rios continues to develop and Vernon Wells had a bounce back '08 (sign of good to come?) and the addition of Travis Snider. The bullpen outside is also a strength. But with a rotation like that, will it matter?
WEAKNESSES: Rotation. Am I overstating this? Perhaps, but I really don't see the Jays having a strong pitching season.
Player to Watch: Travis Snider. He's my pre-season AL ROY pick.
On another note, my girlfriend and I bought tickets to Saturday May 16th's game against the Twins. I'm absolutely pumped for my first trip to the new Stadium. Enjoy the game tonight and celebrate the start of REAL BASEBALL! LET'S GO YANKEES!
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Why Do People Still Think Like This?
Why? Just why? Why do people still think that Joba Chamberlain is best used as a relief pitcher? It's just ridiculous.
So his pitching well is a...bad thing? Why? Because he did it starting instead of relieving? That makes very little sense.
Or, he could throw a complete game and do both. But that's a rarity in baseball. It's also a story for another day. Anyway, if I have my choice between Chamberlain starting and pitching 5-7 innings, I'll take it over him relieving and pitching 1-2 innings.
Yeah, they also have an abundance of guys who can relieve. That's why Dan Giese, Brett Tomoko, and Al Aceves were sent down to Scranton instead of breaking camp with the Yankees. It's not like the pen isn't some rag-tag group of ne'er-do-wells. They've got a good core of live young arms--Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, Jon Albaladejo--two seasoned veterans--Mariano Rivera and Damaso Marte--and the capable Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez. In fact, this bullpen had a 3.73 ERA in '08, along with an 8.66 K/9. I know that includes some of Chamberlain's numbers, but they'll be more than fine without him.
As for Mariano Rivera...do you wanna know why he was a two inning pitcher, Matthews? Because he failed as a starter. He was a fantastic starter in the minors, but he couldn't hack it as a starter in the majors. Why's that? Because he didn't have enough pitches to make it through the lineup more than once. Joba Chamberlain does not have this problem. He has a plus fastball, an explosive slider, a workable changeup, and a solid curveball. Guys with four pitches don't need to be wasted in the eighth inning.
Pot? Kettle? Black?
Yeah, and? Wouldn't you rather have a guy pitch six innings instead of one or two, especially if he was fully capable of doing so?
You wanna know the truth, Wallace Matthews? Most games are essentially already decided by the 7th inning. Using the WPA Calculator, we can see that a home team, winning by one, in the top of the seventh, wins the game 72.5% of the time. You don't need a guy as good as Joba Chamberlain to pitch the 7th or 8th to hold that lead down. You only need a guy as good as say...Brian Bruney or Phil Coke or Albie or Edwar or Veras or Marte...
Not to mention the Yankees were something like 73-2 in games in which they led after 7 innings. Taking Joba out of the 8th inning role will not drastically hurt that number.
You know why they've determined that? Because even a slightly above average starter is more valuable than a lights out reliever.
Actually, I'd say in your situation. That'd be like hiring Picasso or Mozart to do such menial tasks. Joba is fully capable of being a great starter and wasting him in the eighth and ninth innings would be so silly.
That second statement about the market is just a joke. Why do you think CC Sabathia's getting $14 million in 2009 and $23 million from '10-'15 and K-Rod is never making more than $17.5 in a year? BECAUSE STARTERS ARE ALWAYS MORE VALUABLE THAN RELIEVERS!
Again, Rivera failed as a starter. Go look up Rivera's minor league numbers. If he had been able to duplicate them at the Major League level, do you really think he would've been turned into a closer? I doubt it.
That's because it's hard to win a game when you're down with only 9 outs to play with no matter who's pitching.
I also love how he completely ignores the Yankees good starting pitching in the late '90s, as if it was the bullpen that did the job.
Didn't the Yankees make the playoffs all the time despite "poor" set up men? Yeah, they did. They also survived with Joe Torre's more-than-questionable bullpen management. Also, Brian Bruney was awesome in '06 and '08 so I don't see Matthews's point here.
*snip*
I'd say a bigger problem was their crappy starting rotation, which they've fixed with the likes of Sabathia, Burnett, and Chamberlain. As for who will take over the closer role? Well, if Rivera were hurt, there's a ton of bullpen guys who can do that. And there's Mark Melancon.
As great as Rivera has been for the Yankees, he is overrated. Yes, I said it. The closer is probably the most overrated position in American sports, even if it's Mo--the greatest closer ever.
Like I said, Brian Bruney was fantastic last year. Damaso Marte wasn't great, but he has a history of performing very, very well. Does this guy seriously know anything about the Yankees?
Yeah, you know how he can shorten games? Pitch the first six or seven innings, which are more important than the last two. Why do games get shortened in the first place? BECAUSE OF GOOD STARTING PITCHING! The bullpen can only be effective when the starters are good, right? You could have a 7-8-9 combo of Soria-Papelbon-Rivera but if your starters are Ponson, Rasner, and Igawa, what does it matter? I know it's not that drastic since the Yankees now have a strong rotation (with Chamberlain) but what's the point of weakening it by removing Chamberlain?
I'll end on this. Here are Chamberlain's stats as a starter:
12 G, 65.1 IP, 60 H, 25 BB, 74 SO, 2.76 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, 2.96 K/BB, 10.23 K/9
Joba Chamberlain had his best outing of the spring Tuesday,, limiting the Reds to five hits and two runs in 51/3 innings. He was so good, in fact, that he pitched the Yankees almost to the point where, ideally, Joba Chamberlain would come into the game.
And that's the problem.
So his pitching well is a...bad thing? Why? Because he did it starting instead of relieving? That makes very little sense.
Not even Joba, as good as he is, can fill two roles at once. He can start a game or he can finish it.
Or, he could throw a complete game and do both. But that's a rarity in baseball. It's also a story for another day. Anyway, if I have my choice between Chamberlain starting and pitching 5-7 innings, I'll take it over him relieving and pitching 1-2 innings.
The Yankees, who have an abundance of guys to start their games this year, think it's a good idea to take the greatest two-inning pitcher since Mariano Rivera, circa 1996, and turn him into just another starter.
Yeah, they also have an abundance of guys who can relieve. That's why Dan Giese, Brett Tomoko, and Al Aceves were sent down to Scranton instead of breaking camp with the Yankees. It's not like the pen isn't some rag-tag group of ne'er-do-wells. They've got a good core of live young arms--Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, Jon Albaladejo--two seasoned veterans--Mariano Rivera and Damaso Marte--and the capable Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez. In fact, this bullpen had a 3.73 ERA in '08, along with an 8.66 K/9. I know that includes some of Chamberlain's numbers, but they'll be more than fine without him.
As for Mariano Rivera...do you wanna know why he was a two inning pitcher, Matthews? Because he failed as a starter. He was a fantastic starter in the minors, but he couldn't hack it as a starter in the majors. Why's that? Because he didn't have enough pitches to make it through the lineup more than once. Joba Chamberlain does not have this problem. He has a plus fastball, an explosive slider, a workable changeup, and a solid curveball. Guys with four pitches don't need to be wasted in the eighth inning.
I think they're nuts.
Pot? Kettle? Black?
The reality with starters is that they are six-inning pitchers on most days, seven- and eight-inning pitchers on their best days.
Yeah, and? Wouldn't you rather have a guy pitch six innings instead of one or two, especially if he was fully capable of doing so?
In four out of every five starts, they are going to need a guy to come charging out of that bullpen in the seventh inning to hold the game until the closer gets there.
A guy like Joba Chamberlain.
You wanna know the truth, Wallace Matthews? Most games are essentially already decided by the 7th inning. Using the WPA Calculator, we can see that a home team, winning by one, in the top of the seventh, wins the game 72.5% of the time. You don't need a guy as good as Joba Chamberlain to pitch the 7th or 8th to hold that lead down. You only need a guy as good as say...Brian Bruney or Phil Coke or Albie or Edwar or Veras or Marte...
Not to mention the Yankees were something like 73-2 in games in which they led after 7 innings. Taking Joba out of the 8th inning role will not drastically hurt that number.
But Joba isn't doing that anymore. Greater baseball minds than mine have analyzed this situation at great length and determined that Joba for the first six innings every five days is better than Joba out of the bullpen five times a week.
You know why they've determined that? Because even a slightly above average starter is more valuable than a lights out reliever.
I say that's like hiring Picasso to paint your garage door or asking Mozart to come up with a toothpaste jingle. Many can start; few can finish. Joba can finish. He was a great setup man, and someday he'll be a great closer. Those commodities are a lot scarcer on the market than starting pitchers.
Actually, I'd say in your situation. That'd be like hiring Picasso or Mozart to do such menial tasks. Joba is fully capable of being a great starter and wasting him in the eighth and ninth innings would be so silly.
That second statement about the market is just a joke. Why do you think CC Sabathia's getting $14 million in 2009 and $23 million from '10-'15 and K-Rod is never making more than $17.5 in a year? BECAUSE STARTERS ARE ALWAYS MORE VALUABLE THAN RELIEVERS!
And the Yankees, of all teams, should know it. In 1996, they wrote the book on the art of shortening the game. The nightly relay team - starting pitcher to Rivera to John Wetteland - was more reliable than Tinker to Evers to Chance. It forced every one of their opponents into the hurry-up offense, every night.
Again, Rivera failed as a starter. Go look up Rivera's minor league numbers. If he had been able to duplicate them at the Major League level, do you really think he would've been turned into a closer? I doubt it.
If you didn't get those Yankees within six innings, you weren't getting them at all, and the numbers bear it out - the record of the 1996 world champions was 70-3 in games they led after six.
That's because it's hard to win a game when you're down with only 9 outs to play with no matter who's pitching.
I also love how he completely ignores the Yankees good starting pitching in the late '90s, as if it was the bullpen that did the job.
The Yankees patented that formula, bottled it and swigged liberally from the bottle for the next decade, although it never worked quite as well when Rivera had to depend on mere mortals such as Brian Bruney and Kyle Farnsworth to get him the baseball.
Didn't the Yankees make the playoffs all the time despite "poor" set up men? Yeah, they did. They also survived with Joe Torre's more-than-questionable bullpen management. Also, Brian Bruney was awesome in '06 and '08 so I don't see Matthews's point here.
*snip*
Best of all, he seemed to solve the biggest question the Yankees will have to face in the next couple of years, namely, who would replace the irreplaceable Rivera?
I'd say a bigger problem was their crappy starting rotation, which they've fixed with the likes of Sabathia, Burnett, and Chamberlain. As for who will take over the closer role? Well, if Rivera were hurt, there's a ton of bullpen guys who can do that. And there's Mark Melancon.
As great as Rivera has been for the Yankees, he is overrated. Yes, I said it. The closer is probably the most overrated position in American sports, even if it's Mo--the greatest closer ever.
Besides, now Joba and his colleagues will have to sweat out games entrusted to the likes of Bruney and Damaso Marte. It could be worse, I suppose, but thankfully Farnsworth is in Kansas City this year.
Like I said, Brian Bruney was fantastic last year. Damaso Marte wasn't great, but he has a history of performing very, very well. Does this guy seriously know anything about the Yankees?
This guy can shorten games for the Yankees now, and close games for them over the next 10 years. Barring catastrophic injury, that's virtually a certainty.
Yeah, you know how he can shorten games? Pitch the first six or seven innings, which are more important than the last two. Why do games get shortened in the first place? BECAUSE OF GOOD STARTING PITCHING! The bullpen can only be effective when the starters are good, right? You could have a 7-8-9 combo of Soria-Papelbon-Rivera but if your starters are Ponson, Rasner, and Igawa, what does it matter? I know it's not that drastic since the Yankees now have a strong rotation (with Chamberlain) but what's the point of weakening it by removing Chamberlain?
I'll end on this. Here are Chamberlain's stats as a starter:
12 G, 65.1 IP, 60 H, 25 BB, 74 SO, 2.76 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, 2.96 K/BB, 10.23 K/9
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Division Preview Series Part Five: AL Central
Spring Training is winding down! The start of the season is less than a week away! So, here's the penultimate division preview in my six part series: the AL Central, but I'm gonna keep it a bit shorter, saving my effort for two things. The first is an awesome paper I'm gearing up to write about Frankenstein and "The Dark Knight;" the second is my AL East preview, which will be much more detailed than this one.
1. Cleveland Indians The Indians had a bit of a hiccup in '08, but I think they can rebound to win this division. I don't think Travis Hafner is as bad as he was in '08, and the same goes for Fausto Carmona (even though Carmona is definitely not as good as he was in '07). Cliff Lee most likely won't repeat his Cy Young performance from last year, but even a slight regression wouldn't kill the Indians. The addition of Kerry Wood is a decent one as well, but it could be offset by the addition of one Carl Pavano.
Player to Watch: Grady Sizemore. Grady is probably the best CF in baseball right now, but somehow, I feel he's a slightly under-appreciated. Ken Rosenthal predicted him to win MVP the other day, though, so maybe I'm the one not paying attention.
2. Minnesota Twins The Twins have good young pitching and the best catcher in baseball and the should-have-been-MVP-in-2008: Joe Mauer. With a little more offense, the Twins could challenge the Indians for the division, but I don't think they can muster the runs.
Player to Watch: Delmon Young. Delmon's a solid young player, but his power has yet to show up. If it does in '09, that'll be a huge shot in the arm for the Twinkies and could push them over the edge.
3. Chicago White Sox Maybe it's just my irrational hatred for Ozzie Guillen, but I'm just not high on this team. The offense will probably be there with Konerko, Dye, Thome, and Quentin, but there's no good pitching in Chicago.
Player to Watch: Carlos Quentin. Carlos busted onto the scene in '08 and probably would've won MVP if not for a season ending wrist injury. Was this for real? Who knows?
4. Kansas City Royals Once again, the Royals won't finish in the cellar in '09. Their offense is shoddy, but with Zach Greinke and Gil Meche in the rotation and Joakim Soria out of the 'pen, they've actually got some decent pitching. They may not be great, but they're probably better than what the Tigers can muster up.
Player to Watch: Just for fun, I'm gonna say Kyle Farnsworth. The Royals signed him to a 2 year, $9.25 million deal. This deal is just awful for the Royals, but it could be decent if Farnswoth pitches like he did for the Yankees in the first half of '08. Maybe. Probably not. Have fun with Krazy Kyle, KC.
5. Detroit Tigers This team's just a mess. They might be able to score some runs with Miggy Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson, but there's no way they can prevent runs The Matt Joyce/Edwin Jackson trade was not a good one for the Tigers, IMO, and with Joel Zumaya starting the year on the DL, the 'pen might be in trouble, too.
Player to Watch: Justin Verlander. The hard throwing right-hander took negative turns in K/9, BB/9, K/BB, ERA, WHIP, and FIP. Yikes. Can he regain his '06-'07 form, when he finished 7th and 5th in the Cy Young voting and a Rookie of the Year award in '06? We'll see. if not, the Tigers will be in for another celler-dwelilng season. Sorry, Michigan.
1. Cleveland Indians The Indians had a bit of a hiccup in '08, but I think they can rebound to win this division. I don't think Travis Hafner is as bad as he was in '08, and the same goes for Fausto Carmona (even though Carmona is definitely not as good as he was in '07). Cliff Lee most likely won't repeat his Cy Young performance from last year, but even a slight regression wouldn't kill the Indians. The addition of Kerry Wood is a decent one as well, but it could be offset by the addition of one Carl Pavano.
Player to Watch: Grady Sizemore. Grady is probably the best CF in baseball right now, but somehow, I feel he's a slightly under-appreciated. Ken Rosenthal predicted him to win MVP the other day, though, so maybe I'm the one not paying attention.
2. Minnesota Twins The Twins have good young pitching and the best catcher in baseball and the should-have-been-MVP-in-2008: Joe Mauer. With a little more offense, the Twins could challenge the Indians for the division, but I don't think they can muster the runs.
Player to Watch: Delmon Young. Delmon's a solid young player, but his power has yet to show up. If it does in '09, that'll be a huge shot in the arm for the Twinkies and could push them over the edge.
3. Chicago White Sox Maybe it's just my irrational hatred for Ozzie Guillen, but I'm just not high on this team. The offense will probably be there with Konerko, Dye, Thome, and Quentin, but there's no good pitching in Chicago.
Player to Watch: Carlos Quentin. Carlos busted onto the scene in '08 and probably would've won MVP if not for a season ending wrist injury. Was this for real? Who knows?
4. Kansas City Royals Once again, the Royals won't finish in the cellar in '09. Their offense is shoddy, but with Zach Greinke and Gil Meche in the rotation and Joakim Soria out of the 'pen, they've actually got some decent pitching. They may not be great, but they're probably better than what the Tigers can muster up.
Player to Watch: Just for fun, I'm gonna say Kyle Farnsworth. The Royals signed him to a 2 year, $9.25 million deal. This deal is just awful for the Royals, but it could be decent if Farnswoth pitches like he did for the Yankees in the first half of '08. Maybe. Probably not. Have fun with Krazy Kyle, KC.
5. Detroit Tigers This team's just a mess. They might be able to score some runs with Miggy Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson, but there's no way they can prevent runs The Matt Joyce/Edwin Jackson trade was not a good one for the Tigers, IMO, and with Joel Zumaya starting the year on the DL, the 'pen might be in trouble, too.
Player to Watch: Justin Verlander. The hard throwing right-hander took negative turns in K/9, BB/9, K/BB, ERA, WHIP, and FIP. Yikes. Can he regain his '06-'07 form, when he finished 7th and 5th in the Cy Young voting and a Rookie of the Year award in '06? We'll see. if not, the Tigers will be in for another celler-dwelilng season. Sorry, Michigan.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Poll Results!
I've had some of my polls up for a long time, and they're due to expire tomorrow so I thought I'd write up the results.
The first question: Who should start in CF--Brett, Melky, or someone else? The results from your responses were pretty clear: start Brett! He got 33 votes, good for 73% of the vote. It seems as if General Joe has listened, naming Gardner the starting center fielder.
The next, and most important question, was on how far the Yankees would go in 2009. 60% of you have dreams of a 27th World Championship for the Bronx Bombers this year. I hope you're all right. 18% thought a World Series berth was in the cards while 7%, 8 votes, thought the Yankees would miss the playoffs altogether. Somewhat surprisingly, this got more votes than the Yankees exiting after the ALDS, which got only 4 votes, 3%.
Next was the question of who would have a better year: Tex or A-Rod? In the beginning of this question's existence, A-Rod was winning by a landslide. However, with all the injury news, it started to even out a bit and ended up 57-32 (64%-35%) in A-Rod's favor. Despite those results, it seems apparent that Teixeira will have the better season.
Last but not least is the pitching version of the previous question: who'll have a better year: CC or A.J.? This was the most lopsided question, with CC taking 86% of the vote.
So, we'll re-visit this post later in the year to see how close we all were on our "predictions." Have a good one, everybody and GO HUSKIES!
The first question: Who should start in CF--Brett, Melky, or someone else? The results from your responses were pretty clear: start Brett! He got 33 votes, good for 73% of the vote. It seems as if General Joe has listened, naming Gardner the starting center fielder.
The next, and most important question, was on how far the Yankees would go in 2009. 60% of you have dreams of a 27th World Championship for the Bronx Bombers this year. I hope you're all right. 18% thought a World Series berth was in the cards while 7%, 8 votes, thought the Yankees would miss the playoffs altogether. Somewhat surprisingly, this got more votes than the Yankees exiting after the ALDS, which got only 4 votes, 3%.
Next was the question of who would have a better year: Tex or A-Rod? In the beginning of this question's existence, A-Rod was winning by a landslide. However, with all the injury news, it started to even out a bit and ended up 57-32 (64%-35%) in A-Rod's favor. Despite those results, it seems apparent that Teixeira will have the better season.
Last but not least is the pitching version of the previous question: who'll have a better year: CC or A.J.? This was the most lopsided question, with CC taking 86% of the vote.
So, we'll re-visit this post later in the year to see how close we all were on our "predictions." Have a good one, everybody and GO HUSKIES!
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Division Preview Series Part Four: AL West
We're in the swing of things in terms of March Madness and the Huskies are DOMINATING and Opening Day is creeping ever closer! So, here's part four of six of my division preview series...the AL West!
1.Oakland Athletics The A's will end the Angels two year reign on top of the AL West in 2009. There are usually two choices in life: go big or go home. In this offseason, Billy Beane chose to go big. He traded for Matt Holliday, he brought Jason Giambi back home (WE'LL MISS YOU, BIG G!), and he also brought in Orlando Cabrera along with NOMAAAAAAAH. Offense was a big problem for the A's last season (14th in BA, 13th in OBP, and 14th in SLG), but Giambi and Holliday should help that. A 3-4-5 combination of Giambi-Holliaday-Cust could be the absolute best in the division. Oakland had a collection of no names on their pitching staff but still finished fourth in the AL in ERA and 9th in the Majors in FIP. Oakland's pitching may not be a shining star, but it is by no mean a black hole. With their improved offense, they should be able to overtake the Angels for the AL West title in 2009.
Player to Watch: Matt Holliday. Holliday came over in a trade with the Rockies. Holliday has a reputation for not hitting well away from Coors Field. He is going from a park that had a park factor of 105 last year to one that had a park factor of 97 last year. Holliday is a free agent next offseason and if he performs well outside of Coors for a whole season, he will get himself a huge deal with another AL team (maybe the Yankees? More on that at another time). If not, he could go back to the NL. No player is going to be under a bigger microscope than Matt Holliday this season.
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Aside from not having an unpretentious name, the Angels don't have much offense. Of course, Vlad is solid and they did add Bobby Abreu, but Abreu is in his decline phase. They have no power at the corner infield positions and even with the added "bonus" of Torii Hunter, the Angels offense won't be able to score enough runs. If, however, Mike Napoli can get some more PAs, he adds significant pop to the lineup. They're due for a big time pythag record correction this year as well. They were 100-62 in '08 despite having a phythag record of 88-74. Compare that to the '07 Mariners who had a record of 88-74, despite a pythag record of 79-83 (61-101 in '08 with a PR of 67-95)and the '07 D-Backs (90-72, PR: 99-83; 82-80 in '09 with an exactly similar PR.). I would expect a similar correction for the '09 Angels, despite their strong pitching staff. I don't expect the loss of K-Rod to hurt them all that much, but there just won't be enough runs to support the staff.
Player to Watch: Ervin Santana. Ervin rebounded nicely from an incredibly rough 2007 to have a very good 2008. He improved his K/BB from 2.17 to an ridiculous 4.55 and decreased his FIP from 5.13 to 3.30. Was 2008 fluky? Perhaps. But, it could just be the progression of a young, budding pitcher. Is Ervin as bad as he was in 2007? Definitely not. Is he as good as he was in '08? Probably not, but he's somewhere in the middle, and that's not bad at all.
3. Texas Rangers This team is the opposite of the Angels. All hit and no pitch. They were poised to sign Ben Sheets to correct that, but we all know how that turned out. Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler will anchor the offense that might take a hit after losing its best hitter in Milton Bradley. Hank Blalock is a consistent presence at third base, and he will have a new compliment at the opposite corner in budding youngster Chris Davis. Taylor Teagarden had a good in his brief 47 ABs and he could be a contender for AL Rookie of the Year. Texas led the AL in runs scored with 901 last year, but they also gave up 967. I see no way that Texas can improve on that disparity and with improved offense in Oakland and solid pitching in Los Angeles, there's no way the Rangers can keep up.
Player to Watch: Nelson Cruz. Cruz put up a line of .330/.421/.609 in 115 ABs last year and CHONE projects him to do .271/.374/.495 this season. If Cruz can do that, he could be a nice compliment to Josh Hamilton in the outfield and would be able to fill at least part of the gap left by Milton Bradley's departure to the Cubs.
4. Seattle Mariners There really isn't much to be excited about in the Emerald City. King Felix is great and Ichiro is still solid, but their essentially alone. Erik Bedard was good in his 15 games last season, but health is always an issue with him. The team has also lost Raul Ibanez to the Phillies and they didn't do anything to plug that hole. Adding Ken Griffey is great for nostalgia's sake, but it does nothing in terms of baseball. They played a few games below their pythag record last year, so there could be an improvement but that is unlikely. There is no one who can hit well and unless Bedard is healthy, the M's really only have one good starter.
Player to Watch: Erik Bedard. If Bedard is healthy, he and Felix Hernandez could be a great one-two punch, but if not, the M's rotation is essentially punch-less.
Thanks for reading, everyone. Check back next time for the AL Central
1.Oakland Athletics The A's will end the Angels two year reign on top of the AL West in 2009. There are usually two choices in life: go big or go home. In this offseason, Billy Beane chose to go big. He traded for Matt Holliday, he brought Jason Giambi back home (WE'LL MISS YOU, BIG G!), and he also brought in Orlando Cabrera along with NOMAAAAAAAH. Offense was a big problem for the A's last season (14th in BA, 13th in OBP, and 14th in SLG), but Giambi and Holliday should help that. A 3-4-5 combination of Giambi-Holliaday-Cust could be the absolute best in the division. Oakland had a collection of no names on their pitching staff but still finished fourth in the AL in ERA and 9th in the Majors in FIP. Oakland's pitching may not be a shining star, but it is by no mean a black hole. With their improved offense, they should be able to overtake the Angels for the AL West title in 2009.
Player to Watch: Matt Holliday. Holliday came over in a trade with the Rockies. Holliday has a reputation for not hitting well away from Coors Field. He is going from a park that had a park factor of 105 last year to one that had a park factor of 97 last year. Holliday is a free agent next offseason and if he performs well outside of Coors for a whole season, he will get himself a huge deal with another AL team (maybe the Yankees? More on that at another time). If not, he could go back to the NL. No player is going to be under a bigger microscope than Matt Holliday this season.
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Aside from not having an unpretentious name, the Angels don't have much offense. Of course, Vlad is solid and they did add Bobby Abreu, but Abreu is in his decline phase. They have no power at the corner infield positions and even with the added "bonus" of Torii Hunter, the Angels offense won't be able to score enough runs. If, however, Mike Napoli can get some more PAs, he adds significant pop to the lineup. They're due for a big time pythag record correction this year as well. They were 100-62 in '08 despite having a phythag record of 88-74. Compare that to the '07 Mariners who had a record of 88-74, despite a pythag record of 79-83 (61-101 in '08 with a PR of 67-95)and the '07 D-Backs (90-72, PR: 99-83; 82-80 in '09 with an exactly similar PR.). I would expect a similar correction for the '09 Angels, despite their strong pitching staff. I don't expect the loss of K-Rod to hurt them all that much, but there just won't be enough runs to support the staff.
Player to Watch: Ervin Santana. Ervin rebounded nicely from an incredibly rough 2007 to have a very good 2008. He improved his K/BB from 2.17 to an ridiculous 4.55 and decreased his FIP from 5.13 to 3.30. Was 2008 fluky? Perhaps. But, it could just be the progression of a young, budding pitcher. Is Ervin as bad as he was in 2007? Definitely not. Is he as good as he was in '08? Probably not, but he's somewhere in the middle, and that's not bad at all.
3. Texas Rangers This team is the opposite of the Angels. All hit and no pitch. They were poised to sign Ben Sheets to correct that, but we all know how that turned out. Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler will anchor the offense that might take a hit after losing its best hitter in Milton Bradley. Hank Blalock is a consistent presence at third base, and he will have a new compliment at the opposite corner in budding youngster Chris Davis. Taylor Teagarden had a good in his brief 47 ABs and he could be a contender for AL Rookie of the Year. Texas led the AL in runs scored with 901 last year, but they also gave up 967. I see no way that Texas can improve on that disparity and with improved offense in Oakland and solid pitching in Los Angeles, there's no way the Rangers can keep up.
Player to Watch: Nelson Cruz. Cruz put up a line of .330/.421/.609 in 115 ABs last year and CHONE projects him to do .271/.374/.495 this season. If Cruz can do that, he could be a nice compliment to Josh Hamilton in the outfield and would be able to fill at least part of the gap left by Milton Bradley's departure to the Cubs.
4. Seattle Mariners There really isn't much to be excited about in the Emerald City. King Felix is great and Ichiro is still solid, but their essentially alone. Erik Bedard was good in his 15 games last season, but health is always an issue with him. The team has also lost Raul Ibanez to the Phillies and they didn't do anything to plug that hole. Adding Ken Griffey is great for nostalgia's sake, but it does nothing in terms of baseball. They played a few games below their pythag record last year, so there could be an improvement but that is unlikely. There is no one who can hit well and unless Bedard is healthy, the M's really only have one good starter.
Player to Watch: Erik Bedard. If Bedard is healthy, he and Felix Hernandez could be a great one-two punch, but if not, the M's rotation is essentially punch-less.
Thanks for reading, everyone. Check back next time for the AL Central
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Division Preview Series Part Three: NL East
Alright, I just made my own meatballs and made a sandwich out of them for lunch so now it's time for blogging. This is the third part in my division preview series: the National League East.
1.Philadelphia Phillies I like the Phils to repeat as division champs. The defending World Series champs have some question marks in terms of pitching, but I think they can out-hit the rest of the division to make up for those possible deficiencies. What are those question marks? I think the rotation is rather iffy after the wonderful and dreamy Cole Hamels. Brett Myers is Philadelphia's answer to Oliver Perez, Jamie Moyer is old and though he had a solid year last year, I don't think we can count on that again. The bullpen is also a question mark in my mind. Brad Lidge is definitely solid, but missing JC Romero for 50 games will hurt and Ryan Madson was the only one of the bunch who didn't pitch over his head last year. The lineup will take a hit without Pat Burrell, but (questionable) acquisition Raul Ibanez could see an improvement due to moving to a hitter's park. The middle infield combination the Phillies have could be the best overall in all of baseball--both Rollins and Utley are good fielders and very good hitters, especially considering their positions. Ryan Howard looks to be in a decline, but he's still a good hitter and should still flourish in that small park. The third base situation will be interesting this year and could be solved by a platoon--Feliz vs. lefties and Dobbs vs. righties. Anyway, the Phillies potent offense should be able to fend off the division foes.
Player to Watch: Cole Hamels. Last year, the lanky lefty established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball and the fact that he didn't receive any Cy Young votes is sickening. Look for him to continue his stellar rise to the top of the N.L. pitching ranks.
2.New York Mets The Mets will once again finish in second in the NL East, but this year, they'll snag the NL's Wild Card berth. They could probably win the two other divisions in the NL, but I don't think they can outhit the Phillies. Their rotation is also a much bigger question than Philadelphia's. After Johan Santana, it gets pretty thin. Oliver Perez is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in baseball form, John Maine is coming off an injury and his ERA/WHIP have both moved in the wrong direction the last three seasons. Mike Pelfrey has some promise, but a shaky K/BB last year (1.72) and a huge innings increase are indicators of possible struggles to come. The Mets did, however, do one thing right this offseason: they improved their unreliable bullpen by acquiring J.J. Putz in a trade with the Mariners and signing Francisco Rodriguez to sure up the back end. These are good moves, but with a shaky starting rotation, will an improved bullpen really matter? The Mets also didn't do enough to bolster their lineup. Bernie Madoff must've really screwed the Wilpons because their absence from the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes if he didn't would've been inexcusable. They're left side of the infield is good in terms of offense (David Wright will go down as the best position player in Mets history. Book it.) and Carlos Delgado is reliable, but without a second big bat in the outfield, I don't think the Mets can keep up with Phils and their run scoring.
Player to Watch: Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod, possibly the most overrated pitcher in all of baseball, is joining a new team and a new league. Despite setting a new record in saves, Rodriguez is coming off his second worst K/9 year (2003), his worst K/BB year, and his second worst FIP year (2003). While he's an improvement over the injured Billy Wagner, I don't think Rodriguez is going to be the savior Mets fans are hoping for.
3.Atlanta Braves If the Braves had added another good bat (Adam Dunn rather than Garrett Anderson), I would've picked them to win the division. With Javier Vasquez, new addition Derek Lowe, and young up and comer Jair Jurrjens, the Braves have the best starting rotation in the NL East. However, they just don't have the offense to keep up with the Mets and Phillies. Chipper Jones is probably the best switch hitter since Mickey Mantle, but he just can't stay healthy. His only real offensive compliment is Brian McCann and the two of them will not be able to carry the team to anything more than a third place finish. Their pitching will keep them in the race, but the Braves will not be able to score enough runs to make the playoffs.
Player to Watch: Jeff Francoeur. His power has been dipping every year since his third place ROY finish in 2005 and he still isn't able to take a walk (career OBP: .312). After an embarrassing demotion to the minors last year, Francoeur needs a bounce back in a big way. If he can hit like he did in '05 (or even '07) the Braves might make the race for the NL East a little closer. If not...well, there'll be another playoff-less year in Atlanta.
4.Florida Marlins The Marlins were a surprising third place finisher in the NL East in '08, but this year, I don't think they'll quite get there. In Miami, there just isn't enough on either side of the ball--Ramirez and Uggla are great hitters but that's about it. The pitching after Ricky Nolasco isn't enough either. Fourth place is all the Marlins will muster in '09.
Player to Watch: Ricky Nolasco and Cameron Maybin. After the All-Star break, Nolasco posted a 3.12 ERA in 109.2 innings while striking out 113 and walking only 13. This guy's gonna turn some heads this year. As for Maybin, I was in attendance at Yankee Stadium when he hit his first career homer against Roger Clemens so I've got an attachment to Maybin...sort of. Anyway, he's a highly touted prospect who came over in the Miguel Cabrera deal with Detroit and should get some serious Rookie of the Year consideration in the National League. While Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla turned the heads of fans towards Miami, Nolasco and Maybin will have them looking twice.
5. Washington Nationals What can I say about this team? They signed Adam Dunn, so that makes them an instant favorite in my book, but aside from that...I don't know what they can do aside from finish in last place. There isn't much offense and there isn't much pitching. Good luck, Washington. You'll need it.
Player to Watch: Adam Dunn and Elijah Dukes. Dunn is moving to a new stadium and a new division, so we'll have to see if he can continue his streak of 40+ homers. Elijah Dukes projects to go .263/.373/.462 via CHONE. If he can do that, the Nats will have a star in the making.
Next: The AL West.
1.Philadelphia Phillies I like the Phils to repeat as division champs. The defending World Series champs have some question marks in terms of pitching, but I think they can out-hit the rest of the division to make up for those possible deficiencies. What are those question marks? I think the rotation is rather iffy after the wonderful and dreamy Cole Hamels. Brett Myers is Philadelphia's answer to Oliver Perez, Jamie Moyer is old and though he had a solid year last year, I don't think we can count on that again. The bullpen is also a question mark in my mind. Brad Lidge is definitely solid, but missing JC Romero for 50 games will hurt and Ryan Madson was the only one of the bunch who didn't pitch over his head last year. The lineup will take a hit without Pat Burrell, but (questionable) acquisition Raul Ibanez could see an improvement due to moving to a hitter's park. The middle infield combination the Phillies have could be the best overall in all of baseball--both Rollins and Utley are good fielders and very good hitters, especially considering their positions. Ryan Howard looks to be in a decline, but he's still a good hitter and should still flourish in that small park. The third base situation will be interesting this year and could be solved by a platoon--Feliz vs. lefties and Dobbs vs. righties. Anyway, the Phillies potent offense should be able to fend off the division foes.
Player to Watch: Cole Hamels. Last year, the lanky lefty established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball and the fact that he didn't receive any Cy Young votes is sickening. Look for him to continue his stellar rise to the top of the N.L. pitching ranks.
2.New York Mets The Mets will once again finish in second in the NL East, but this year, they'll snag the NL's Wild Card berth. They could probably win the two other divisions in the NL, but I don't think they can outhit the Phillies. Their rotation is also a much bigger question than Philadelphia's. After Johan Santana, it gets pretty thin. Oliver Perez is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in baseball form, John Maine is coming off an injury and his ERA/WHIP have both moved in the wrong direction the last three seasons. Mike Pelfrey has some promise, but a shaky K/BB last year (1.72) and a huge innings increase are indicators of possible struggles to come. The Mets did, however, do one thing right this offseason: they improved their unreliable bullpen by acquiring J.J. Putz in a trade with the Mariners and signing Francisco Rodriguez to sure up the back end. These are good moves, but with a shaky starting rotation, will an improved bullpen really matter? The Mets also didn't do enough to bolster their lineup. Bernie Madoff must've really screwed the Wilpons because their absence from the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes if he didn't would've been inexcusable. They're left side of the infield is good in terms of offense (David Wright will go down as the best position player in Mets history. Book it.) and Carlos Delgado is reliable, but without a second big bat in the outfield, I don't think the Mets can keep up with Phils and their run scoring.
Player to Watch: Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod, possibly the most overrated pitcher in all of baseball, is joining a new team and a new league. Despite setting a new record in saves, Rodriguez is coming off his second worst K/9 year (2003), his worst K/BB year, and his second worst FIP year (2003). While he's an improvement over the injured Billy Wagner, I don't think Rodriguez is going to be the savior Mets fans are hoping for.
3.Atlanta Braves If the Braves had added another good bat (Adam Dunn rather than Garrett Anderson), I would've picked them to win the division. With Javier Vasquez, new addition Derek Lowe, and young up and comer Jair Jurrjens, the Braves have the best starting rotation in the NL East. However, they just don't have the offense to keep up with the Mets and Phillies. Chipper Jones is probably the best switch hitter since Mickey Mantle, but he just can't stay healthy. His only real offensive compliment is Brian McCann and the two of them will not be able to carry the team to anything more than a third place finish. Their pitching will keep them in the race, but the Braves will not be able to score enough runs to make the playoffs.
Player to Watch: Jeff Francoeur. His power has been dipping every year since his third place ROY finish in 2005 and he still isn't able to take a walk (career OBP: .312). After an embarrassing demotion to the minors last year, Francoeur needs a bounce back in a big way. If he can hit like he did in '05 (or even '07) the Braves might make the race for the NL East a little closer. If not...well, there'll be another playoff-less year in Atlanta.
4.Florida Marlins The Marlins were a surprising third place finisher in the NL East in '08, but this year, I don't think they'll quite get there. In Miami, there just isn't enough on either side of the ball--Ramirez and Uggla are great hitters but that's about it. The pitching after Ricky Nolasco isn't enough either. Fourth place is all the Marlins will muster in '09.
Player to Watch: Ricky Nolasco and Cameron Maybin. After the All-Star break, Nolasco posted a 3.12 ERA in 109.2 innings while striking out 113 and walking only 13. This guy's gonna turn some heads this year. As for Maybin, I was in attendance at Yankee Stadium when he hit his first career homer against Roger Clemens so I've got an attachment to Maybin...sort of. Anyway, he's a highly touted prospect who came over in the Miguel Cabrera deal with Detroit and should get some serious Rookie of the Year consideration in the National League. While Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla turned the heads of fans towards Miami, Nolasco and Maybin will have them looking twice.
5. Washington Nationals What can I say about this team? They signed Adam Dunn, so that makes them an instant favorite in my book, but aside from that...I don't know what they can do aside from finish in last place. There isn't much offense and there isn't much pitching. Good luck, Washington. You'll need it.
Player to Watch: Adam Dunn and Elijah Dukes. Dunn is moving to a new stadium and a new division, so we'll have to see if he can continue his streak of 40+ homers. Elijah Dukes projects to go .263/.373/.462 via CHONE. If he can do that, the Nats will have a star in the making.
Next: The AL West.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
A Little Bit of Everything
Spring Training NotesFirst off, I watched my second Spring Training game today as the Yankees defeated the Astros, 3-1. The best part of this game was definitely A.J. Burnett's four spectacular innings of work to start the ball game. He pitched a perfect four frames while striking out three. What was most impressive and encouraging about the performance was with how little effort Burnett seemed to be throwing, despite radar gun readings that had his fastball sitting at 93-96. His accuracy was incredible as he worked the corners deftly and his breaking ball looked as sharp as it would in mid-season.
At the plate today, the Yankees didn't do too much. Johnny Damon's laser of a home run was really the only highlight. The other half of the split squad game, the one I wish was televised, was much more offensive minded. Both Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero hit home runs, the latter's being a grand slam. Every Yankee fan ought to keep a sharp eye on these two, as they are a huge part of the future of the New York Yankees.
In other ST news, Robinson Cano and Damaso Marte returned from the WBC with injuries that appear to be minor, but I'm cautious, as I am with any Yankee injury. Is the WBC to blame? Probably not wholly, but I still don't like the tournament for a variety of reasons. The first is that it simply takes away time players should have with their club teams. Second is that it's far too early for a playoff-like atmosphere. Third, I just don't like it when sports have to act as a veil for petty nationalism--this applies to the Olympics as well. If it's really all about the sport, why do the teams have to be national ones? If I had my way, I'd eliminate the WBC altogether. Despite that, though, I realize it's here to stay and is a good concept. Changes, however, should be made.
The timing is not one of those changes, despite the fact that it is poor. However, March is the lesser of a multitude of timing evils. Putting it mid-season would be moronic, as would putting it post-playoffs. What I would change is the teams. Instead of the teams being countries, they would be the winners of that country's league, meaning this year the US would've sent the Phillies to the WBC, Japan would've sent NPB's champion, and so on. I think this would give the world a much stronger idea of who baseball's best country is. Of course, there are pitfalls to this solution as well. Do we really think the Italian league champs would stand a chance against the Phillies? The teams also change year to year, what with free agent acquisitions and trades and what not, but whatever. It's still more entertaining to me than watching petty nationalism played out on a baseball field. This also may hurt the team's chances to mix younger players into the Spring Training fold due to the season-like atmosphere, but they could probably find time against the lesser teams. This idea isn't much better than the current WBC, but I think it's still an improvement. Either way, the WBC sucks.
UConn Basketball Six fuckin' overtimes. I stayed up for the whole damn thing and they lost. I was furious. I hate Syracuse. Jim Boehiem's alright but the players and the team itself, forget 'em. There is no one in college basketball I hate more than Eric Devendorf and his little eyebrow-pencil looking beard. Anyway, I don't think this hurts UConn's chances at a one or two seed in the Big Dance, but I'm still weary of the team. Losing Dyson really hurt and I think other teams have figured out how to attack Hasheem Thabeet: go right at him and try to out muscle him. UConn has the talent to make it all the way to the Final Four but they do have weaknesses, mostly three point shooting and free-throw shooting as well. If they are going to make a long tourney run, Thabeet will have to toughen up a bit, Adrien will have to regain his scoring form from early in the season, AJ Price will need to keep up the hot three point shooting, and Kemba Walker will have to be, well, Kemba walker. I've said it before and I'll say it again, in 2-3 years, Kemba will be a Player of the Year candidate.
At the plate today, the Yankees didn't do too much. Johnny Damon's laser of a home run was really the only highlight. The other half of the split squad game, the one I wish was televised, was much more offensive minded. Both Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero hit home runs, the latter's being a grand slam. Every Yankee fan ought to keep a sharp eye on these two, as they are a huge part of the future of the New York Yankees.
In other ST news, Robinson Cano and Damaso Marte returned from the WBC with injuries that appear to be minor, but I'm cautious, as I am with any Yankee injury. Is the WBC to blame? Probably not wholly, but I still don't like the tournament for a variety of reasons. The first is that it simply takes away time players should have with their club teams. Second is that it's far too early for a playoff-like atmosphere. Third, I just don't like it when sports have to act as a veil for petty nationalism--this applies to the Olympics as well. If it's really all about the sport, why do the teams have to be national ones? If I had my way, I'd eliminate the WBC altogether. Despite that, though, I realize it's here to stay and is a good concept. Changes, however, should be made.
The timing is not one of those changes, despite the fact that it is poor. However, March is the lesser of a multitude of timing evils. Putting it mid-season would be moronic, as would putting it post-playoffs. What I would change is the teams. Instead of the teams being countries, they would be the winners of that country's league, meaning this year the US would've sent the Phillies to the WBC, Japan would've sent NPB's champion, and so on. I think this would give the world a much stronger idea of who baseball's best country is. Of course, there are pitfalls to this solution as well. Do we really think the Italian league champs would stand a chance against the Phillies? The teams also change year to year, what with free agent acquisitions and trades and what not, but whatever. It's still more entertaining to me than watching petty nationalism played out on a baseball field. This also may hurt the team's chances to mix younger players into the Spring Training fold due to the season-like atmosphere, but they could probably find time against the lesser teams. This idea isn't much better than the current WBC, but I think it's still an improvement. Either way, the WBC sucks.
UConn Basketball Six fuckin' overtimes. I stayed up for the whole damn thing and they lost. I was furious. I hate Syracuse. Jim Boehiem's alright but the players and the team itself, forget 'em. There is no one in college basketball I hate more than Eric Devendorf and his little eyebrow-pencil looking beard. Anyway, I don't think this hurts UConn's chances at a one or two seed in the Big Dance, but I'm still weary of the team. Losing Dyson really hurt and I think other teams have figured out how to attack Hasheem Thabeet: go right at him and try to out muscle him. UConn has the talent to make it all the way to the Final Four but they do have weaknesses, mostly three point shooting and free-throw shooting as well. If they are going to make a long tourney run, Thabeet will have to toughen up a bit, Adrien will have to regain his scoring form from early in the season, AJ Price will need to keep up the hot three point shooting, and Kemba Walker will have to be, well, Kemba walker. I've said it before and I'll say it again, in 2-3 years, Kemba will be a Player of the Year candidate.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Division Preview Series Part Two: NL Central
Okay time for part two of my MLB division previews and predictions. This one brings us to the NL Central.
1. Chicago Cubs The Cubs really should win this division running away. They were the best team in the division last year and and adding Milton Bradley is a plus--if he can stay healthy, but more on that later. Mr. Bradley adds to an already solid hitting core of Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto. They dd lose Kerry Wood to the Indians but the addition of Kevin Gregg is a good one and he will anchor the bullpen, along with the impressive Carlos Marmol.
Player to Watch: Milton Bradley. Bradley was the best hitter the Rangers had last year (his home/away splits weren't awful either), but was hurt...again. I like the signing of Bradley for 3/30 but his health is an obvious question. He's only played 100+ games three times in his career so he could leave some Chicago residents disappointed. However, if he's healthy, look for Bradley to mash. He's got great talent and is moving from one good hitter's park to another.
2. St. Louis Cardinals I've got the Cards finishing second to the Cubs, but by a large margin. The offense is pretty much there with Pujols (best player in baseball. Period.) and Glaus, but it has some questions, IMO. Is Ryan Ludwick for real? Can Rick Ankiel get some plate discipline/stay healthy? As for their pitching...meh. Adam Wainwright is solid but he only pitched 20 games. If Wellemeyer and Lohse can repeat what they did last year, they might be able to make it closer with the Cubs.
Player(s) to Watch: Albert Pujols is one. He's one of those guys that I'm gonna be harping on when I'm 87, telling my grandkids that no one could hit the ball like King Albert. In non obvious land, Ryan Ludwick will be another to watch. Ludwick raked last year but is it a case of late blooming or just a fluke?
3. Cincinnati Reds I like the Reds to finish third, but they could challenge the Cardinals for the second spot with solid pitching. Edinson Volquez is a stud, Johnny Cueto has a year of ML pitching under his belt and is incredibly talented, it's doubtful that Aaron Harang is as bad as he was in 2008, and Bronson Arroyo should be better than he was in '08 as well. Their offense is pretty crappy, though. Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion provide good offense on the corner infield spots, but after that...not so much. Ramon Hernandez is decent behind the plate but nothing too special, and the middle infield probably won't produce much, either. Jay Bruce will be the best offensive player on a team that will miss my boy Adam Dunn's bat, no matter how much Dusty Baker hates walks.
Player to Watch: Jay Bruce. I told some fellow fans at the June 20th game who had not heard of Jay Bruce that he could be one of the best players in baseball in five years. This year is the first step towards that. Bruce has 30 homer power and 2009 will probably be the first of his many trips to the All-Star game.
4. Milwaukee Brewers The Brewers have no starting pitching and not much offense after Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. The off-season hurt the Brew Crew the most, as they lost both CC Sabathia (woo!) and Ben Sheets, their two best pitchers. Yovani Gallardo is great, but he's not Sabathia or Sheets and I don't think he can hold down the rotation by himself.
Player to Watch: Yovani Gallardo. This young guy is a stud and should, despite being on what projects to be a bad team, get some awards consideration. Coming off an injury and a shaky playoff performance, look for Gallardo to bounce back and become a dominant starter.
5. Houston Astros At the plate, they've got (the incredibly underrated) Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. On the hill, they've got Roy Oswalt. Things are not too bright in Houston.
Player to Watch: Lance Berkman. Berkman has a career line of .302/.413/.560 and has finished in the top 5 of MVP voting in 4 different seasons, yet he is rarely mentioned as one of the top players in the game. He is definitely the second best second baseman in baseball, right behind Pujols and right ahead of Mark Teixeira.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates I'm not gonna lie--I do not know much about this team, but there really is not much to say about them. The only thing they can do is hope for lightning in a bottle and pull a D-Rays. Ryan Doumit and Mike Francesa's favorite, Nate McLouth are probably the lone bright spots in Pittsburgh, who will once again finish in the cellar.
Player to Watch: Andy LaRoche. Once considered a top prospect, LaRoche has essentially fallen off the face of the earth. It'll be interesting to see if he can start to develop into the player everyone once thought he would be.
1. Chicago Cubs The Cubs really should win this division running away. They were the best team in the division last year and and adding Milton Bradley is a plus--if he can stay healthy, but more on that later. Mr. Bradley adds to an already solid hitting core of Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto. They dd lose Kerry Wood to the Indians but the addition of Kevin Gregg is a good one and he will anchor the bullpen, along with the impressive Carlos Marmol.
Player to Watch: Milton Bradley. Bradley was the best hitter the Rangers had last year (his home/away splits weren't awful either), but was hurt...again. I like the signing of Bradley for 3/30 but his health is an obvious question. He's only played 100+ games three times in his career so he could leave some Chicago residents disappointed. However, if he's healthy, look for Bradley to mash. He's got great talent and is moving from one good hitter's park to another.
2. St. Louis Cardinals I've got the Cards finishing second to the Cubs, but by a large margin. The offense is pretty much there with Pujols (best player in baseball. Period.) and Glaus, but it has some questions, IMO. Is Ryan Ludwick for real? Can Rick Ankiel get some plate discipline/stay healthy? As for their pitching...meh. Adam Wainwright is solid but he only pitched 20 games. If Wellemeyer and Lohse can repeat what they did last year, they might be able to make it closer with the Cubs.
Player(s) to Watch: Albert Pujols is one. He's one of those guys that I'm gonna be harping on when I'm 87, telling my grandkids that no one could hit the ball like King Albert. In non obvious land, Ryan Ludwick will be another to watch. Ludwick raked last year but is it a case of late blooming or just a fluke?
3. Cincinnati Reds I like the Reds to finish third, but they could challenge the Cardinals for the second spot with solid pitching. Edinson Volquez is a stud, Johnny Cueto has a year of ML pitching under his belt and is incredibly talented, it's doubtful that Aaron Harang is as bad as he was in 2008, and Bronson Arroyo should be better than he was in '08 as well. Their offense is pretty crappy, though. Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion provide good offense on the corner infield spots, but after that...not so much. Ramon Hernandez is decent behind the plate but nothing too special, and the middle infield probably won't produce much, either. Jay Bruce will be the best offensive player on a team that will miss my boy Adam Dunn's bat, no matter how much Dusty Baker hates walks.
Player to Watch: Jay Bruce. I told some fellow fans at the June 20th game who had not heard of Jay Bruce that he could be one of the best players in baseball in five years. This year is the first step towards that. Bruce has 30 homer power and 2009 will probably be the first of his many trips to the All-Star game.
4. Milwaukee Brewers The Brewers have no starting pitching and not much offense after Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. The off-season hurt the Brew Crew the most, as they lost both CC Sabathia (woo!) and Ben Sheets, their two best pitchers. Yovani Gallardo is great, but he's not Sabathia or Sheets and I don't think he can hold down the rotation by himself.
Player to Watch: Yovani Gallardo. This young guy is a stud and should, despite being on what projects to be a bad team, get some awards consideration. Coming off an injury and a shaky playoff performance, look for Gallardo to bounce back and become a dominant starter.
5. Houston Astros At the plate, they've got (the incredibly underrated) Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. On the hill, they've got Roy Oswalt. Things are not too bright in Houston.
Player to Watch: Lance Berkman. Berkman has a career line of .302/.413/.560 and has finished in the top 5 of MVP voting in 4 different seasons, yet he is rarely mentioned as one of the top players in the game. He is definitely the second best second baseman in baseball, right behind Pujols and right ahead of Mark Teixeira.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates I'm not gonna lie--I do not know much about this team, but there really is not much to say about them. The only thing they can do is hope for lightning in a bottle and pull a D-Rays. Ryan Doumit and Mike Francesa's favorite, Nate McLouth are probably the lone bright spots in Pittsburgh, who will once again finish in the cellar.
Player to Watch: Andy LaRoche. Once considered a top prospect, LaRoche has essentially fallen off the face of the earth. It'll be interesting to see if he can start to develop into the player everyone once thought he would be.
Monday, March 9, 2009
The Lineup, Sans A-Rod
Hey everybody. It was a stressful week last week, what with a full load for school and the A-Rod mess, so I'm glad to be on Spring Break!
Anyway, A-Rod had his surgery today and is already rehabbing. Regardless of that, he'll still miss 6-9 weeks of action. I've already detailed how I'd design the lineup with A-Rod, now I'll give my take for the lineup without A-Rod.
The likely replacement for Alex Rodriguez is Cody Ransom, so I'll plug him into this lineup. I'm also assuming that Nick Swisher will win the starting right field job, because, well, I'm the President of the Nick Swisher fan club and that Brett "Slugger" Gardner will be the starting centerfielder.
vs. RHP
1. Damon, LF
2. Jeter, SS
3. Swisher, RF
4. Teixeira, 1B
5. Matsui, DH
6. Posada, C
7. Cano, 2B
8. Ransom, 3B
9. Gardner, CF
The top two are obvious. Damon and Jeter are going to bat 1/2 no matter who's pitching, no matter who else is injured, whatever. I wish Girardi would swap the two of them, but Damon/Jeter is fine with me. Swisher batting third is iffy considering his down year last year, but I think he could be a good 3 hitter for the Yanks. He's incredibly patient and has some good pop. It's the former that would be good for the three whole--he could provide a hell of a lot of RBI chances for Tex batting in the cleanup spot. Some people have been suggesting Cano at the top of the order but until he learns some patience, I don't want him up that high, regardless of the pop in his bat. Ransom really ain't a great hitter, so sticking him in the eighth spot makes sense. I just hope he can hit at replacement level for the month that Rodriguez is on the DL. Gardner's potential on base and stealing skills profile him at the top of the order, but until his skills show up, he's better suited at the bottom of the order as a "second leadoff" type of guy.
vs. LHP
1. Damon, DH
2. Jeter, SS
3. Swisher, RF
4. Teixeira, 1B
5. Nady, LF
6. Posada, C
7. Cano, 2B
8. Ransom, 3B
9. Gardner, CF
Nady should be the DH vs. lefties. He hits them better than Hideki Matsui and playing him against lefties gives Matsui time off to rest his knees. I'd like to hit Posada over Nady because of his superior skills all around, but Nady hits lefties just as well as Jorge. The rest of the lineup is the same so no explanation needed there.
Anyway, that's it for now. I'll be back later this week for the second installment of my Division Preview Series with the NL Central. Have a good one and get better soon, Alex!
Anyway, A-Rod had his surgery today and is already rehabbing. Regardless of that, he'll still miss 6-9 weeks of action. I've already detailed how I'd design the lineup with A-Rod, now I'll give my take for the lineup without A-Rod.
The likely replacement for Alex Rodriguez is Cody Ransom, so I'll plug him into this lineup. I'm also assuming that Nick Swisher will win the starting right field job, because, well, I'm the President of the Nick Swisher fan club and that Brett "Slugger" Gardner will be the starting centerfielder.
vs. RHP
1. Damon, LF
2. Jeter, SS
3. Swisher, RF
4. Teixeira, 1B
5. Matsui, DH
6. Posada, C
7. Cano, 2B
8. Ransom, 3B
9. Gardner, CF
The top two are obvious. Damon and Jeter are going to bat 1/2 no matter who's pitching, no matter who else is injured, whatever. I wish Girardi would swap the two of them, but Damon/Jeter is fine with me. Swisher batting third is iffy considering his down year last year, but I think he could be a good 3 hitter for the Yanks. He's incredibly patient and has some good pop. It's the former that would be good for the three whole--he could provide a hell of a lot of RBI chances for Tex batting in the cleanup spot. Some people have been suggesting Cano at the top of the order but until he learns some patience, I don't want him up that high, regardless of the pop in his bat. Ransom really ain't a great hitter, so sticking him in the eighth spot makes sense. I just hope he can hit at replacement level for the month that Rodriguez is on the DL. Gardner's potential on base and stealing skills profile him at the top of the order, but until his skills show up, he's better suited at the bottom of the order as a "second leadoff" type of guy.
vs. LHP
1. Damon, DH
2. Jeter, SS
3. Swisher, RF
4. Teixeira, 1B
5. Nady, LF
6. Posada, C
7. Cano, 2B
8. Ransom, 3B
9. Gardner, CF
Nady should be the DH vs. lefties. He hits them better than Hideki Matsui and playing him against lefties gives Matsui time off to rest his knees. I'd like to hit Posada over Nady because of his superior skills all around, but Nady hits lefties just as well as Jorge. The rest of the lineup is the same so no explanation needed there.
Anyway, that's it for now. I'll be back later this week for the second installment of my Division Preview Series with the NL Central. Have a good one and get better soon, Alex!
Friday, March 6, 2009
Division Preview Series Part One: NL West
Hey everyone! With Spring Training started, I'm gonna put up my division previews and predictions. I'm gonna do this at least once a week, starting tonight with the NL West and ending with the AL East. So, without further ado....
1. LA Dodgers: Officially getting Manny Ramirez back pushes the Dodgers over the edge. Though they lost Derek Lowe, they brought in the aforementioned Manny, along with Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf. Takashi Saito is also out, but young flamethrower Jonathan Broxton can easily fill his role as the closer. Chad Billingsley will anchor the rotation, along with youngster Clayton Kershaw. Though a pitching edge could be given to the Giants, the Dodgers will surely have the edge on offense with Manny, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Russell Martin, and Andre Ethier.
Player to Watch: Clayton Kershaw. Despite giving up a few too many hits and walks (9.11 H/9 and 4.35 BB/9), the young lefty put up a very good 8.36 K/9. Kershaw was only twenty years old last year and those are pretty damn good numbers considering his age. The spotlight will be on him big time this year, as he'll have to be the team's #2 to Billingsley.
2. SF Giants: Coming in second place in the relatively weak NL West will be the Giants. The Giants are going to do this with pitching, not hitting. Their hitting is incredibly weak, but their pitching is surprisingly strong. They've got defending Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, the very solid Matt Cain, young Jonathan Sanchez, soon-to-be-300 game-winner Randy Johnson, and...Barry Zito. That's a great rotation and they would win this division if they had just a slightly better lineup.
Player to Watch: Jonathan Sanchez. Though he still didn't put up great numbers last year (5.01 ERA, 1.449 WHIP), Sanchez has 252 strikeouts in 250 innings of MLB ball and the ERA and WHIP tallies were improvements on his '07 numbers. With a high strikeout rate like that, I'd say this is the year Sanchez catches on and shows big time improvement.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: The young up and comers will only mange to come up to third in 2009. After the overlooked Haren and the overrated Webb, I'm just not sure if their pitching can do it. Can Scherzer, Davis, and Garland complement them well enough? They've also got bullpen concerns after losing Juan Cruz, but Chad Qualls could pick up the slack. The lineup is powerful but they've got too many strikeouts without enough walks.
Player to Watch: Justin Upton. It's going to be fun to watch his continuing development at such a young age. He and I graduated high school in the same year ('05). Yikes.
4. Colorado Rockies: The team I thought would win the division in '08 will probably finish fourth this year. They lose their best player in Matt Holliday, Todd Helton is a year older, Garrett Atkins has been in a steady decline, and Jeff Francis is out for the year. However, giving Ryan Spilborghs a chance to have a full time job in center will help them, as it takes away PAs from the now gone Wily Taveras, and Brad Hawpe is usually reliable. On the pitching side, there isn't too much to get excited for. The Rockies will have to hope for improvement from Ubaldo Jimenez, who will now be the team ace. Getting Huston Street in the bullpen could help, along with more development from Manny Corpas.
Player to Watch: Dexter Fowler. A member of the US's bronze medal winning baseball team, Fowler is a bright spot for the Rockies' future as he could be a contender for NL Rookie of the Year.
5. San Diego Padres: Adrian Gonzalez is their lone bright spot offensively, now that Brian Giles has lost pretty much all of his power. Despite all the rumors of being traded, Jake Peavy should still produce at a high level and a healthy Chris Young will help the rotation, but it won't be nearly enough to make the Padres even decent. This last place thing could be a multi-year theme for the Padres.
Player to Watch: Adrian Gonzalez. If this guy played in an even halfway decent hitter's park, he'd be a household name. Sadly, he's stuck in the cavernous PETCO Park and could forever be underappreciated.
Well, that's my prediction for the NL West. We'll see come October, right?
1. LA Dodgers: Officially getting Manny Ramirez back pushes the Dodgers over the edge. Though they lost Derek Lowe, they brought in the aforementioned Manny, along with Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf. Takashi Saito is also out, but young flamethrower Jonathan Broxton can easily fill his role as the closer. Chad Billingsley will anchor the rotation, along with youngster Clayton Kershaw. Though a pitching edge could be given to the Giants, the Dodgers will surely have the edge on offense with Manny, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Russell Martin, and Andre Ethier.
Player to Watch: Clayton Kershaw. Despite giving up a few too many hits and walks (9.11 H/9 and 4.35 BB/9), the young lefty put up a very good 8.36 K/9. Kershaw was only twenty years old last year and those are pretty damn good numbers considering his age. The spotlight will be on him big time this year, as he'll have to be the team's #2 to Billingsley.
2. SF Giants: Coming in second place in the relatively weak NL West will be the Giants. The Giants are going to do this with pitching, not hitting. Their hitting is incredibly weak, but their pitching is surprisingly strong. They've got defending Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, the very solid Matt Cain, young Jonathan Sanchez, soon-to-be-300 game-winner Randy Johnson, and...Barry Zito. That's a great rotation and they would win this division if they had just a slightly better lineup.
Player to Watch: Jonathan Sanchez. Though he still didn't put up great numbers last year (5.01 ERA, 1.449 WHIP), Sanchez has 252 strikeouts in 250 innings of MLB ball and the ERA and WHIP tallies were improvements on his '07 numbers. With a high strikeout rate like that, I'd say this is the year Sanchez catches on and shows big time improvement.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: The young up and comers will only mange to come up to third in 2009. After the overlooked Haren and the overrated Webb, I'm just not sure if their pitching can do it. Can Scherzer, Davis, and Garland complement them well enough? They've also got bullpen concerns after losing Juan Cruz, but Chad Qualls could pick up the slack. The lineup is powerful but they've got too many strikeouts without enough walks.
Player to Watch: Justin Upton. It's going to be fun to watch his continuing development at such a young age. He and I graduated high school in the same year ('05). Yikes.
4. Colorado Rockies: The team I thought would win the division in '08 will probably finish fourth this year. They lose their best player in Matt Holliday, Todd Helton is a year older, Garrett Atkins has been in a steady decline, and Jeff Francis is out for the year. However, giving Ryan Spilborghs a chance to have a full time job in center will help them, as it takes away PAs from the now gone Wily Taveras, and Brad Hawpe is usually reliable. On the pitching side, there isn't too much to get excited for. The Rockies will have to hope for improvement from Ubaldo Jimenez, who will now be the team ace. Getting Huston Street in the bullpen could help, along with more development from Manny Corpas.
Player to Watch: Dexter Fowler. A member of the US's bronze medal winning baseball team, Fowler is a bright spot for the Rockies' future as he could be a contender for NL Rookie of the Year.
5. San Diego Padres: Adrian Gonzalez is their lone bright spot offensively, now that Brian Giles has lost pretty much all of his power. Despite all the rumors of being traded, Jake Peavy should still produce at a high level and a healthy Chris Young will help the rotation, but it won't be nearly enough to make the Padres even decent. This last place thing could be a multi-year theme for the Padres.
Player to Watch: Adrian Gonzalez. If this guy played in an even halfway decent hitter's park, he'd be a household name. Sadly, he's stuck in the cavernous PETCO Park and could forever be underappreciated.
Well, that's my prediction for the NL West. We'll see come October, right?
Friday, February 27, 2009
Games Have Started!...and Manny
I'll keep this one short, since I have to go to class in five minutes:
So games have started. That is incredible. Despite not watching them, I can feel the excitement coursing through my veins. Real baseball is inching closer and closer an I could not be more excited.
Jorge, Brett, and A-Rod have all hit homers. Do they matter? Not at all. Do I care that they don't matter? No, I don't. It's always encouraging to see guys hitting well in baseball.
Then there's Manny. He rejected the Dodgers latest offer. Ugh. I don't know what he and Boras think they're going to get but...it's not out there. But, that doesn't mean the Dodgers should just stop trying. I mean let's be honest here, they're probably pissed off at Manny. But at the same time, do they really want to go into '09 penciling in "Juan Pierre" in the lineup card instead of "Manny Ramirez"?
Anyway, I'll leave you with some of my favorite baseball themed quotes:
I see great things in baseball. It's our game - the American game. It will take our people out-of-doors, fill them with oxygen, give them a larger physical stoicism. Tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set. Repair these losses, and be a blessing to us. ~Walt Whitman
With those who don't give a damn about baseball, I can only sympathize. I do not resent them. I am even willing to concede that many of them are physically clean, good to their mothers and in favor of world peace. But while the game is on, I can't think of anything to say to them. ~Art Hill
Poets are like baseball pitchers. Both have their moments. The intervals are the tough things. ~Robert Frost
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. ~A. Bartlett Giamatti, "The Green Fields of the Mind," Yale Alumni Magazine, November 1977
Baseball is an allegorical play about America, a poetic, complex, and subtle play of courage, fear, good luck, mistakes, patience about fate, and sober self-esteem. ~Saul Steinberg
and my favorites:
"Baseball? It's just a game. As simple as a ball and a bat, yet as complex as the American spirit it symbolizes. It's a sport, a business, and sometimes even a religion." --Ernie Harwell
"The one constant through all the years has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers, it's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But baseball has marked the times. This field, the game is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that was once good...and could be again." --"Field of Dreams."
Play ball, boys. Play ball.
Play ball, boys. Play ball.
So games have started. That is incredible. Despite not watching them, I can feel the excitement coursing through my veins. Real baseball is inching closer and closer an I could not be more excited.
Jorge, Brett, and A-Rod have all hit homers. Do they matter? Not at all. Do I care that they don't matter? No, I don't. It's always encouraging to see guys hitting well in baseball.
Then there's Manny. He rejected the Dodgers latest offer. Ugh. I don't know what he and Boras think they're going to get but...it's not out there. But, that doesn't mean the Dodgers should just stop trying. I mean let's be honest here, they're probably pissed off at Manny. But at the same time, do they really want to go into '09 penciling in "Juan Pierre" in the lineup card instead of "Manny Ramirez"?
Anyway, I'll leave you with some of my favorite baseball themed quotes:
I see great things in baseball. It's our game - the American game. It will take our people out-of-doors, fill them with oxygen, give them a larger physical stoicism. Tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set. Repair these losses, and be a blessing to us. ~Walt Whitman
With those who don't give a damn about baseball, I can only sympathize. I do not resent them. I am even willing to concede that many of them are physically clean, good to their mothers and in favor of world peace. But while the game is on, I can't think of anything to say to them. ~Art Hill
Poets are like baseball pitchers. Both have their moments. The intervals are the tough things. ~Robert Frost
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. ~A. Bartlett Giamatti, "The Green Fields of the Mind," Yale Alumni Magazine, November 1977
Baseball is an allegorical play about America, a poetic, complex, and subtle play of courage, fear, good luck, mistakes, patience about fate, and sober self-esteem. ~Saul Steinberg
and my favorites:
"Baseball? It's just a game. As simple as a ball and a bat, yet as complex as the American spirit it symbolizes. It's a sport, a business, and sometimes even a religion." --Ernie Harwell
"The one constant through all the years has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers, it's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But baseball has marked the times. This field, the game is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that was once good...and could be again." --"Field of Dreams."
Play ball, boys. Play ball.
Play ball, boys. Play ball.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
BA's Top 100 Prospects
Baseball America released its list of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
Only three Yankees made the list. Austin Jackson came in at #36,(the) Jesus Montero came in behind him at #38, and Andrew Brackman was rated #92. The list put AJax's ETA at 2009, which I agree with. I think he'll definitely get a cup of coffee towards the end of the year in '09, unless of course the Yankees are in a tight race. They estimate Montero to come up in 2011, which I also agree with. He's gotta get some time to develop, especially at something higher than the South Atlantic League. Brackman, the team's first round pick in 2002 will finally make his debut in pro baseball this season after having surgery that shelved him for all of last year, save for the Hawaiian League. His ETA is 2010. If AB can make it to the Bronx by 2010, color me incredibly excited.
All three of these guys represent a future need for the Yankees. Jackson projects to be an average to above average hitting CF with good defense, something the Yankees need.
Jesus Montero, granted he can stay at catcher, and I think he should, will be the next version of Jorge Posada; he may not be great with the glove, but his bat will be very advanced for his position. This argument has left many people to rate Montero lower than his talent and skill merits. Unless Montero is absolutely awful behind the plate, he should stay there. If his defensive skills have the ceiling of those of Mike Piazza or Jorge, he should stay there. His bat is not nearly as valuable to the Yankees in the future any where else.
Andrew Brackman is a starter. The Yankees--and the other 29 teams--always need starting pitching.
Only three Yankees made the list. Austin Jackson came in at #36,(the) Jesus Montero came in behind him at #38, and Andrew Brackman was rated #92. The list put AJax's ETA at 2009, which I agree with. I think he'll definitely get a cup of coffee towards the end of the year in '09, unless of course the Yankees are in a tight race. They estimate Montero to come up in 2011, which I also agree with. He's gotta get some time to develop, especially at something higher than the South Atlantic League. Brackman, the team's first round pick in 2002 will finally make his debut in pro baseball this season after having surgery that shelved him for all of last year, save for the Hawaiian League. His ETA is 2010. If AB can make it to the Bronx by 2010, color me incredibly excited.
All three of these guys represent a future need for the Yankees. Jackson projects to be an average to above average hitting CF with good defense, something the Yankees need.
Jesus Montero, granted he can stay at catcher, and I think he should, will be the next version of Jorge Posada; he may not be great with the glove, but his bat will be very advanced for his position. This argument has left many people to rate Montero lower than his talent and skill merits. Unless Montero is absolutely awful behind the plate, he should stay there. If his defensive skills have the ceiling of those of Mike Piazza or Jorge, he should stay there. His bat is not nearly as valuable to the Yankees in the future any where else.
Andrew Brackman is a starter. The Yankees--and the other 29 teams--always need starting pitching.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Centerfield
So, who should be the centerfielder for the Yankees come April? As of right now, it's obviously up in the air and Spring Training will feature a battle between Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera. So what are the pros and cons of these guys?
Melky took a big hit last year, hitting .249/.301/.341/.641, with a pathetic .285 wOBA. His defense was average, though, as he posted a 0.9 UZR/150 in center, up from -12.5 in 2007. Regardless, there are still a ton of questions for Cabrera: can he hit like he did in 2006? Can he show some plate discipline? Can he start taking better routes to the ball? Can he improve his range? Coming into 2009, the Melk Man has a lot to prove to the Yankees. The last question is, can he do this? Maybe. While it's incredibly unlikely that Melky is anything better than his 2006 season (.752 OPS, .333 wOBA), he can easily match those numbers again. CHONE projects him to post that same .333 wOBA this year, while playing -3 defense in center. The way the Yankees stack up offensively, they could easily survive Melky's hitting at the bottom of the order and probably overcome his below average centerfield defense (granted Damon plays strong defense in left and Swisher gets placed over Nady in right).
Then there's my boy Brett Gardner. He was a weak hitter but a great runner and defender with the Yankees, tallying 13 steals and only 1 CS while posting a ridiculous 66.3 UZR/150 in center. We've got to take that with an incredible grain of salt, though, because of the small sample size (160.2 innings). Gardner's got great upside as a slap hitting, on base-getting, base stealing, good defending CF, which I would be fine with. There's always the chance that what we saw in late 2008 is what we're going to get. Gardner does, however, have a history of struggling with a level the first time he plays there so there could be some improvement from him in 2009. CHONE projects him to have a .341 OBP and a .318 wOBA, the latter of which is lower than Melky Cabrera. However, CHONE projects Gardner to be +5 in centerfield, an 8 run improvement over Cabrera. As for stolen bases--speed is one of Gardner's biggest pluses--Chone projects BG to be 33 out of 42 in steal attempts (78.5%), which I would love. A .341 OBP and 33 steals along with plus defense out of the number 9 hitter? Sign me up please.
If I had my pick, I'd take Gardner because of his defense and his speed. Cabrera may give you a little more at the plate (very little more) but his arm in center does not do enough to make up for Gardner's range. I'm not a huge fan of stealing but Gardner projects to be over the "break even" point of 75% and those steals at the bottom of the order could lead to more RBI chances for Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter at the top of the lineup.
I wish both Melky and Gardner luck in Spring Training. May the best man win!
Melky took a big hit last year, hitting .249/.301/.341/.641, with a pathetic .285 wOBA. His defense was average, though, as he posted a 0.9 UZR/150 in center, up from -12.5 in 2007. Regardless, there are still a ton of questions for Cabrera: can he hit like he did in 2006? Can he show some plate discipline? Can he start taking better routes to the ball? Can he improve his range? Coming into 2009, the Melk Man has a lot to prove to the Yankees. The last question is, can he do this? Maybe. While it's incredibly unlikely that Melky is anything better than his 2006 season (.752 OPS, .333 wOBA), he can easily match those numbers again. CHONE projects him to post that same .333 wOBA this year, while playing -3 defense in center. The way the Yankees stack up offensively, they could easily survive Melky's hitting at the bottom of the order and probably overcome his below average centerfield defense (granted Damon plays strong defense in left and Swisher gets placed over Nady in right).
Then there's my boy Brett Gardner. He was a weak hitter but a great runner and defender with the Yankees, tallying 13 steals and only 1 CS while posting a ridiculous 66.3 UZR/150 in center. We've got to take that with an incredible grain of salt, though, because of the small sample size (160.2 innings). Gardner's got great upside as a slap hitting, on base-getting, base stealing, good defending CF, which I would be fine with. There's always the chance that what we saw in late 2008 is what we're going to get. Gardner does, however, have a history of struggling with a level the first time he plays there so there could be some improvement from him in 2009. CHONE projects him to have a .341 OBP and a .318 wOBA, the latter of which is lower than Melky Cabrera. However, CHONE projects Gardner to be +5 in centerfield, an 8 run improvement over Cabrera. As for stolen bases--speed is one of Gardner's biggest pluses--Chone projects BG to be 33 out of 42 in steal attempts (78.5%), which I would love. A .341 OBP and 33 steals along with plus defense out of the number 9 hitter? Sign me up please.
If I had my pick, I'd take Gardner because of his defense and his speed. Cabrera may give you a little more at the plate (very little more) but his arm in center does not do enough to make up for Gardner's range. I'm not a huge fan of stealing but Gardner projects to be over the "break even" point of 75% and those steals at the bottom of the order could lead to more RBI chances for Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter at the top of the lineup.
I wish both Melky and Gardner luck in Spring Training. May the best man win!
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The Lineup
Both Pete Abraham and River Avenue Blues touched on the lineup for the upcoming season, so I thought I'd throw my two cents in.
According to Mr. Abraham, Girardi will "likely...hit Tex third and A-Rod fourth." This is something I disagree with. If I'm General Girardi, I hit Rodriguez third and Tex fourth. For starters, Rodriguez is the better hitter and should get more plate appearances and putting him third gives him about 20 more PAs over the course of the season. Second, while I'm not a huge believe in "protection" or whatever, I believe that batting Teixeira behind Rodriguez would be smarter and more effective than batting Matsui behind Rodriguez, as would probably be the case if A-Rod batted cleanup.
Not to pick on Joe, I've got a disagreement with RAB, as well. The author of the post, Joe, suggests batting Robinson Cano fifth so the top five would look the same regardless of who had an off day, be it Posada, Swisher, Nady, or Matsui. Personally, I'm not a fan of Cano batting third because of his lack of patience. I just don't think a guy who's basically making a hit or making an out when he gets to the plate should be batting fifth, regardless of his power potential.
Joe also touches on lineup splits and here's my thought on those. I don't really think Nady's going to continue his hot hitting ways against right handers, so I'd like him to play primarily against left handers. And though Matsui's platoon splits aren't as pronounced as Nady's, for his health's sake, I'd prefer him to play mostly against righties. I'm the president of Team Swisher so I obviously want him playing full time, and I believe he will be the full time starter in right. So, how would I put together the lineup if I'm Joe Girardi? Here:
v. RHP:
1. Johnny Damon LF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Alex Rodriguez 3B
4. Mark Teixeira 1B
5. Hideki Matsui DH
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Nick Swisher RF
8. Robinson Cano 2B
9. Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner CF
v. LHP:
1. Damon DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Rodriguez 3B
4. Teixeira 1B
5. Nady LF
6. Posada C
7. Swisher RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera/Gardner CF
The v. LHP lineup is somewhat different, but I have my reasons. It gives Hideki Matsui a full day off and Johnny Damon a half day off, to rest his knees and shoulder. Nady's not the strongest fielder in all the world, but he has a 2.1 UZR/150 in left over his career. He's also a great hitter against lefties, so it gives him a chance to get some starts.
Obviously, this could all change very quickly depending on injuries and early season performances, but hopefully Joe Girardi is reading this and gets a bright idea or two from it. That's all for today. Thanks for reading!
According to Mr. Abraham, Girardi will "likely...hit Tex third and A-Rod fourth." This is something I disagree with. If I'm General Girardi, I hit Rodriguez third and Tex fourth. For starters, Rodriguez is the better hitter and should get more plate appearances and putting him third gives him about 20 more PAs over the course of the season. Second, while I'm not a huge believe in "protection" or whatever, I believe that batting Teixeira behind Rodriguez would be smarter and more effective than batting Matsui behind Rodriguez, as would probably be the case if A-Rod batted cleanup.
Not to pick on Joe, I've got a disagreement with RAB, as well. The author of the post, Joe, suggests batting Robinson Cano fifth so the top five would look the same regardless of who had an off day, be it Posada, Swisher, Nady, or Matsui. Personally, I'm not a fan of Cano batting third because of his lack of patience. I just don't think a guy who's basically making a hit or making an out when he gets to the plate should be batting fifth, regardless of his power potential.
Joe also touches on lineup splits and here's my thought on those. I don't really think Nady's going to continue his hot hitting ways against right handers, so I'd like him to play primarily against left handers. And though Matsui's platoon splits aren't as pronounced as Nady's, for his health's sake, I'd prefer him to play mostly against righties. I'm the president of Team Swisher so I obviously want him playing full time, and I believe he will be the full time starter in right. So, how would I put together the lineup if I'm Joe Girardi? Here:
v. RHP:
1. Johnny Damon LF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Alex Rodriguez 3B
4. Mark Teixeira 1B
5. Hideki Matsui DH
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Nick Swisher RF
8. Robinson Cano 2B
9. Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner CF
v. LHP:
1. Damon DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Rodriguez 3B
4. Teixeira 1B
5. Nady LF
6. Posada C
7. Swisher RF
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera/Gardner CF
The v. LHP lineup is somewhat different, but I have my reasons. It gives Hideki Matsui a full day off and Johnny Damon a half day off, to rest his knees and shoulder. Nady's not the strongest fielder in all the world, but he has a 2.1 UZR/150 in left over his career. He's also a great hitter against lefties, so it gives him a chance to get some starts.
Obviously, this could all change very quickly depending on injuries and early season performances, but hopefully Joe Girardi is reading this and gets a bright idea or two from it. That's all for today. Thanks for reading!
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Much Ado About Nothing
Sorry for the lack of posts lately. School and life are busy and there really isn't much baseball news going on.
There's the A-Rod press conference today, but I'll be in class when it starts (Women in 20th Century Literature) and probably when it ends (Spanish and Latin American Film). Honestly, I couldn't care less about the whole damn thing and I hope this is the end of the issue...but I know better. Maybe this will end it for Spring Training but as soon as the season starts, we'll hear the "A-Roid" chants on the road and the boos at home and the whole can of worms will be re-opened. My first reaction to everything was not anger, but rather disappointment. At this point, though, I'm way past caring about the PED issue in baseball. I am, however, pissed off that the NFL essentially gets a free pass on the same issue, but whatever.
In legit baseball news, there are some things I'll touch on.
1. This is ridiculous. If anything like this happens, the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Braves--and any team that had to give up a draft pick--should go absolutely nuts on MLB.
2. Ken Griffey appears to be headed to the Braves. This is good news for Yankee fans (especially me) because it means the Nady and/or Swisher to the Braves talks will die. Keeping both on the roster provides depth and insurance. We all know how big my man crush on Nick Swisher is; hell, I named one of my fantasy teams "Swisher's Biggest Fan."
3. After watching bits and pieces of that Baseball Tonight special on Sunday night, I have made it my goal to watch as little BBTN as possible this season. This is for a few reasons: a) I first tuned in when they were talking about the Rays. They listed Pat Burrell as a new acquisition (I think this is a great move) and they listed his BA (.250) and HR (33) totals next to his name. When will ESPN, the "Worldwide Leader in Sports" catch up with the times and stop using BA/HR/RBI as their "Holy Trinity?" Ugh. b) John Kruk and Buck Showalter both agreed that Joba Chamberlain should be in the bullpen, citing a few tired arguments. The first, by Kruk, was that Mariano Rivera won't pitch forever and the Yankees will need someone to close when he is gone. This just shows that the people at ESPN do absolutely no research. At all. There is someone being groomed for the future closer's job. His name is Mark Melancon. He will put an end to this stupid Joba to the bullpen debate. The second "argument," agreed upon by both Showalter and Kruk, is that Chamberlain can pitch in 60-70 games out of the bullpen rather than 25-30 as a starter, and thus "impact more games." This is dumb. If Chamberlain's a reliever, he'll pitch 1-2 innings a game. That way, he's only impacting 1/9 to 2/9 of a ball game. As a starter, he's impacting 5/9 to 7/9 of the game. Which is more valuable? If you say it's the former, that's like saying 2 quarters are worth more than 1 dollar because there's 2 of them, as opposed to 1 of the dollar. Anyway, it's just clear that the guys at ESPN have some work to do. Baseball Tonight is good for one thing--showing us highlights and getting interviews. In the words of Austin Powers, analysis is not their bag, baby.
3. In the Joba vein, there's this article by Joel Sherman in the New York Post. In honor of the fallen Fire Joe Morgan, I'm going to try and shred this post.
No it isn't. 200 innings is usually more valuable than 70. Hell, an average 150 is about the same as a great 80. For a good summary of that article check here.
As someone in the comments pointed out, Moyer (39.7 Pitcher VORP) was more valuable than Lidge (26.5 VORP). Jamie Moyer had a slightly above average season in 2008 and was more valuable than the best reliever in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Moyer was worth 2.6 wins above a replacement player and Lidge was worth 2.2 WAR. So, 196.1 above average innings was worth more than 69.1 godly innings.
As for Boston having to make the choice between Beckett and Papelbon, they'd pick Beckett every time. I'm sure Mr. Sherman meant to say "slam dunk" instead of "lay up" so I'll correct him. It is a slam dunk, dude. Beckett is worth more to the Red Sox than Papelbon.
I'd say most of them are game-on-the-line high leverage situations because by the time closers come in, the game is already determined. For this, I'm gonna head to the WPA Calculator. By typing in the situation that would happen at the beginning of the game--no outs, none on, top of the first, visiting team batting and the scored tied--we see that the home team wins 54% of the time, so basically a toss up. Now, I'm gonna put a classic save situation in: top of the ninth, the home team up by one, no one on, no one out. In that situation, the home team wins 86% of the time. As great as Mo is, when he comes in to the game, it's usually already determined.
As for the 60/30 thing, see above. 30 games of even average to slightly above average pitching is better than 60 games of light's out pitching. Hopefully this year, Joba absolutely dominates and shows all the people who think he should be in the bullpen where they can stick it. You don't waste a great talent like Chamberlain in the bullpen. Cashman and Co. have it right.
There's the A-Rod press conference today, but I'll be in class when it starts (Women in 20th Century Literature) and probably when it ends (Spanish and Latin American Film). Honestly, I couldn't care less about the whole damn thing and I hope this is the end of the issue...but I know better. Maybe this will end it for Spring Training but as soon as the season starts, we'll hear the "A-Roid" chants on the road and the boos at home and the whole can of worms will be re-opened. My first reaction to everything was not anger, but rather disappointment. At this point, though, I'm way past caring about the PED issue in baseball. I am, however, pissed off that the NFL essentially gets a free pass on the same issue, but whatever.
In legit baseball news, there are some things I'll touch on.
1. This is ridiculous. If anything like this happens, the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Braves--and any team that had to give up a draft pick--should go absolutely nuts on MLB.
2. Ken Griffey appears to be headed to the Braves. This is good news for Yankee fans (especially me) because it means the Nady and/or Swisher to the Braves talks will die. Keeping both on the roster provides depth and insurance. We all know how big my man crush on Nick Swisher is; hell, I named one of my fantasy teams "Swisher's Biggest Fan."
3. After watching bits and pieces of that Baseball Tonight special on Sunday night, I have made it my goal to watch as little BBTN as possible this season. This is for a few reasons: a) I first tuned in when they were talking about the Rays. They listed Pat Burrell as a new acquisition (I think this is a great move) and they listed his BA (.250) and HR (33) totals next to his name. When will ESPN, the "Worldwide Leader in Sports" catch up with the times and stop using BA/HR/RBI as their "Holy Trinity?" Ugh. b) John Kruk and Buck Showalter both agreed that Joba Chamberlain should be in the bullpen, citing a few tired arguments. The first, by Kruk, was that Mariano Rivera won't pitch forever and the Yankees will need someone to close when he is gone. This just shows that the people at ESPN do absolutely no research. At all. There is someone being groomed for the future closer's job. His name is Mark Melancon. He will put an end to this stupid Joba to the bullpen debate. The second "argument," agreed upon by both Showalter and Kruk, is that Chamberlain can pitch in 60-70 games out of the bullpen rather than 25-30 as a starter, and thus "impact more games." This is dumb. If Chamberlain's a reliever, he'll pitch 1-2 innings a game. That way, he's only impacting 1/9 to 2/9 of a ball game. As a starter, he's impacting 5/9 to 7/9 of the game. Which is more valuable? If you say it's the former, that's like saying 2 quarters are worth more than 1 dollar because there's 2 of them, as opposed to 1 of the dollar. Anyway, it's just clear that the guys at ESPN have some work to do. Baseball Tonight is good for one thing--showing us highlights and getting interviews. In the words of Austin Powers, analysis is not their bag, baby.
3. In the Joba vein, there's this article by Joel Sherman in the New York Post. In honor of the fallen Fire Joe Morgan, I'm going to try and shred this post.
2. When it comes to Chamberlain's long-term role a question that is often asked is what is more valuable: 70 innings or 200 innings? I think that is a misleading talking point by those who want Chamberlain to be a starter.
No it isn't. 200 innings is usually more valuable than 70. Hell, an average 150 is about the same as a great 80. For a good summary of that article check here.
Now back to the 70/200 matter. You should really ask who is pitching the 70 and who is pitching the 200? For the champion Phillies, Cole Hamels' 227.3 innings were probably more valuable than Brad Lidge's 69.3, but were Jamie Moyers' 196.3. If you told the Red Sox, they could play this season with either Jonathan Papelbon or Josh Beckett, which do you think they would take? It is not a layup.
As someone in the comments pointed out, Moyer (39.7 Pitcher VORP) was more valuable than Lidge (26.5 VORP). Jamie Moyer had a slightly above average season in 2008 and was more valuable than the best reliever in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Moyer was worth 2.6 wins above a replacement player and Lidge was worth 2.2 WAR. So, 196.1 above average innings was worth more than 69.1 godly innings.
As for Boston having to make the choice between Beckett and Papelbon, they'd pick Beckett every time. I'm sure Mr. Sherman meant to say "slam dunk" instead of "lay up" so I'll correct him. It is a slam dunk, dude. Beckett is worth more to the Red Sox than Papelbon.
In those 200-or-so innings for a starter how many would you define as game-on-the-line high leverage? With someone such as Lidge or Papelbon or Rivera, just about every pitch they throw in a season is in a game-deciding moment. That is why the 70/200 thing doesn't work for me. I can just as easily say would you rather have a pitcher impact 60 games (like a reliever) or 30 games (like a starter).
I'd say most of them are game-on-the-line high leverage situations because by the time closers come in, the game is already determined. For this, I'm gonna head to the WPA Calculator. By typing in the situation that would happen at the beginning of the game--no outs, none on, top of the first, visiting team batting and the scored tied--we see that the home team wins 54% of the time, so basically a toss up. Now, I'm gonna put a classic save situation in: top of the ninth, the home team up by one, no one on, no one out. In that situation, the home team wins 86% of the time. As great as Mo is, when he comes in to the game, it's usually already determined.
As for the 60/30 thing, see above. 30 games of even average to slightly above average pitching is better than 60 games of light's out pitching. Hopefully this year, Joba absolutely dominates and shows all the people who think he should be in the bullpen where they can stick it. You don't waste a great talent like Chamberlain in the bullpen. Cashman and Co. have it right.
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